Momentum could carry equities higher in the near term, but its endurance will hinge on fourth-quarter earnings, the trajectory of crude prices and whether foreign institutional investors reverse their bearish bets, according to research heads and strategists.

While the immediate overhang from the conflict is fading and energy flows should normalise over the coming weeks, the stock market recovery is unlikely to be linear, said Sanjay Mookim, head of India Equity Research, JP Morgan.

“The key variable is how oil prices settle, as India had been benefiting from imports at $60-65 per barrel, and now, every $10 move higher translates into roughly $15 billion of incremental outflows.”

Agencies

navigating peace: Equities could rise for now, but linear recovery ‘unlikely’ Street to take direction from Q4 earnings, oil prices Also, watch out for any reversal of FII bearish bets

Brent crude June futures have dropped more than 13% to $95.1 /barrel on Wednesday evening from a recent high of $119.5 at the start of the conflict. Notwithstanding the initial cheer around the oil price decline, uncertainty over the temporary truce is keeping the investors on the edge.

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“Recent volatility in oil, gas, and related macro variables may be somewhat manageable for now, but optimism remains tempered with caution among investors,” said Gautam Chhaochharia, head of Global Markets, at UBS India.
After the 4% gains on Wednesday, the Sensex and Nifty are down 4.7% from February 27 – the start of the war. If talks between the US and Iran progress well over the next two weeks, the indices could recoup these losses but some pre-existing concerns could resurface. “Even prior to the conflict, concerns around domestic valuations, growth recovery, and AI were weighing on Indian markets,” said Chhaochharia, who remains underweight on India among emerging markets. “Assuming no further escalation, these factors are likely to re-emerge as market drivers.”

Investors will watch companies’ fourth quarter earnings to gauge the impact of rising raw material costs on profitability. “Higher energy costs, combined with a weaker rupee, are likely to keep pressure on corporate profitability in the near term,” said Mookim. “While the sharp day-to-day volatility should ease, the macro effects, particularly on consumption, are another key concern.”

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There is a market in the UK that rarely makes headlines, never attracts venture capital, and is almost entirely invisible to the business press.

It is worth an estimated two billion pounds annually, it is growing year on year, and it is being driven by a convergence of factors that show no sign of reversing.

The market is home hardware replacement — door handles, locks, window fittings, letterboxes, hinges, and the hundreds of small components that keep the UK’s thirty million homes functioning. It is not new construction. It is not a renovation. It is the quiet, unglamorous business of replacing the parts that wear out.

The Scale Nobody Talks About

The UK housing stock is ageing. The uPVC door and window installation boom of the 1990s and 2000s means that between fifteen and twenty million UK homes are now running on door and window hardware that is fifteen to twenty-five years old. Springs have weakened. Finishes have deteriorated. Lock mechanisms have worn to the point where they no longer meet current security standards.

Every one of those homes will need replacement hardware at some point — many of them within the next five years. A single front door requires a handle, a euro cylinder lock, a multipoint gearbox mechanism, a letterbox, hinges, and weatherseals. A typical three-bedroom house has eight to twelve windows, each with a handle and a pair of hinges. The average hardware replacement spend per property, when multiple components are addressed at once, runs between seventy-five and two hundred pounds.

Multiply that by the millions of properties approaching the replacement window, and the market opportunity is substantial. Yet it remains largely served by small specialist retailers rather than major chains.

Why the Big Retailers Cannot Win This Market

The structural challenge for large DIY retailers in this market is specificity. Home hardware replacement is not a category where one size fits all. A customer replacing a door handle needs a product that matches the exact PZ distance, backplate length, spindle type, and fixing configuration of their existing door. A customer replacing a euro cylinder needs the exact length to match their door thickness. A customer replacing window hinges needs the correct stack height and hinge length for their window type.

Large retailers optimize for the most popular specifications and ignore the long tail. The result is that a customer visiting a major DIY chain to replace a door handle has perhaps a thirty percent chance of finding the exact product they need. The remaining seventy percent leave empty-handed or buy something that does not fit, generating a return and a second trip.

Specialist online retailers have inverted this model. By focusing exclusively on door and window hardware, they carry the full specification range — every PZ distance, every cylinder length, every hinge type. A specialist selling replacement uPVC door handles stocks forty or fifty models where a general retailer stocks five. The conversion rate difference is dramatic.

The Content Advantage

The most successful businesses in this space have recognised that the customer’s primary challenge is not finding a cheap product — it is identifying which product they need. A homeowner staring at a broken door handle does not know what PZ distance means. They do not know whether they have an espagnolette or a cockspur window handle. They cannot tell a multipoint from a mortice lock.

Specialist retailers that invest in educational content — measuring guides, identification tools, fitting instructions, video walkthroughs — solve this knowledge gap and capture the customer at the moment of highest purchase intent. The customer searches for how to identify their door handle, finds a comprehensive guide on the specialist retailer’s website, identifies their product, and purchases it in the same session.

This content-led acquisition model generates organic traffic at effectively zero marginal cost, in contrast to the paid advertising that general retailers rely on for the same customer. Over time, the specialist builds a library of authoritative content that compounds in search visibility, creating a widening competitive moat.

The DIY Shift

A decade ago, most home hardware replacement was handled by locksmiths and general handymen. The homeowner called a professional, paid a callout fee of sixty to one hundred and fifty pounds, and had the work done for them. The professional sourced the parts through trade suppliers and marked them up accordingly.

That model is changing rapidly. The combination of cost-of-living pressure, widely available fitting guides, and the simplicity of most hardware replacement tasks has shifted a significant proportion of the market to DIY. Replacing a door handle is a ten-minute job with a screwdriver. Changing a euro cylinder takes five minutes. Fitting new window hinges requires twenty minutes and basic tools.

The customer who previously paid a locksmith one hundred and fifty pounds for a cylinder replacement now watches a two-minute video guide, orders a thirty-pound cylinder online, and fits it themselves. The locksmith loses the job. The specialist retailer gains a direct-to-consumer sale with full margin.

This shift has been accelerating since the pandemic, when homeowners became more comfortable with DIY and less willing to pay for services they could perform themselves. The trend shows no sign of reversing.

Insurance and Regulation as Growth Drivers

Home insurance policies have become increasingly specific about door and window security requirements. Policies that once required simply “adequate locks” now specify TS007 3-Star euro cylinders, British Standard multipoint locks, and key-operated window fittings on ground-floor windows.

A homeowner who discovers at policy renewal — or worse, at the point of a burglary claim — that their existing hardware is non-compliant has a strong financial incentive to upgrade immediately. The cost of a rejected insurance claim dwarfs the thirty to fifty pounds required for compliant replacement hardware.

This regulatory tightening has created a recurring upgrade cycle that did not exist a decade ago. As standards evolve, properties that met previous requirements fall below the new threshold and require hardware replacement regardless of whether the existing hardware has physically failed.

The Energy Efficiency Angle

Building energy performance standards are tightening across the UK, with particular focus on rental properties. Landlords are increasingly required to demonstrate minimum energy efficiency standards, and external doors and windows are a significant factor in thermal performance assessments.

Worn draught seals, letterboxes with failed springs, and handles that do not compress the door tightly against the frame all contribute to measurable heat loss. Replacing these components is one of the cheapest ways to improve a property’s thermal performance — and for landlords facing minimum EPC requirements, it is often the most cost-effective first step before investing in more expensive measures.

The Business Opportunity

For entrepreneurs and small business owners considering this market, the barriers to entry are relatively low but the barriers to excellence are significant. Setting up an online shop selling door handles is straightforward. Building the product knowledge, identification guides, fitting support, and full-specification inventory that creates a competitive advantage against both general retailers and other specialists requires genuine expertise and sustained investment.

The businesses that are winning in this space share common characteristics: deep product knowledge that translates into authoritative content, comprehensive inventory that covers the long tail of specifications, and customer service that can identify the correct product from a description or photograph. These are not capabilities that can be bought off the shelf or replicated by a competitor overnight.

For investors and analysts tracking the home improvement sector, the hardware replacement segment deserves more attention than it currently receives. It is counter-cyclical — hardware fails regardless of economic conditions. It is recurring — every replacement creates a future replacement need. And it is structurally shifting toward direct-to-consumer channels that favour specialists over generalists.

The market may not be glamorous. But it is large, it is growing, and it is being won by businesses that understand their products better than anyone else.

The iconic property arm of the Knightsbridge department store has closed its last remaining office after a perfect storm of stamp duty hikes, the scrapping of non-dom tax status and a shift in tastes among ultra-wealthy buyers left it fatally exposed.

For the best part of 130 years, Harrods Estates occupied a rarefied corner of the London property market. Founded in 1897 on the ground floor of the famous Knightsbridge department store, it spent decades connecting British aristocrats and wealthy international buyers with some of the capital’s most desirable addresses. Princess Diana’s stepmother, Countess Raine Spencer, served as a director for a decade, lending the brand a touch of genuine celebrity cachet.

Now, however, the final chapter has been written. The agency has confirmed what it called a “very difficult” decision to close its last remaining office on Brompton Road, bringing an end to operations that once stretched from the Home Counties to Monte Carlo.

Shaun Drummond, Harrods Estates’ residential director, said the closure was part of a broader group strategy to refocus on luxury retail. Service will continue for existing tenants, landlords and those with sales already under way, but even these arrangements will wind down in phases, ceasing entirely by March next year.

The demise of such a storied name is being attributed to a confluence of forces that have battered the top end of the London market. Chief among them is the government’s decision to abolish non-dom tax status, a move that has proved a significant disincentive for wealthy overseas buyers considering a move to the capital. Coupled with stamp duty surcharges of up to 19 per cent for foreign purchasers, the effect has been stark: Savills calculates that average prices for homes valued at £4.5 million and above fell by 4.8 per cent last year.

The geographical dynamics of prime central London have shifted, too. Knightsbridge, once the undisputed pinnacle of luxury living in the capital, has been overtaken in the affections of wealthy buyers by Mayfair, Belgravia and Notting Hill. According to Rosy Khalastchy, a director at Beauchamp Estates, a younger generation of Middle Eastern purchasers no longer shares the desire of their parents and grandparents to live within walking distance of the Harrods store.

Then there is the shadow cast by the late Mohamed Al Fayed, who owned Harrods until selling it to the Qatar Investment Authority for £1.5 billion in 2010. Allegations of historical sexual abuse against Al Fayed, who died in 2023, have caused reputational damage that some industry figures believe drove clients towards rival agencies.

Others point to strategic confusion under Qatari ownership. The property arm is said to have become overly dependent on a narrow pool of international buyers and sellers whose preferences can shift rapidly. One telling anecdote emerged in the summer of 2024, when a visiting lawyer found a large section of the Knightsbridge store given over to a pop-up exhibition advertising luxury homes in Saudi Arabia — a curious choice given the well-documented rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

For those who remember the agency’s heyday under managing director Mark Collins, who built an enviable client roster of high-net-worth individuals and opened four London offices, the closure will feel like the end of an era. As Khalastchy recalled, there was a time when every serious seller in prime central London wanted to list with Harrods Estates, and Countess Spencer’s presence at property launches added genuine star power.

The brand’s website now carries a stark banner in capital letters confirming it is no longer accepting new enquiries. A Harrods spokesman said the wind-down followed the natural end of the office lease and that plans were in place to ensure no disruption for remaining clients.

For the wider London luxury property sector, the closure of Harrods Estates serves as a cautionary tale. A brand name alone, however illustrious, offers little protection when the tax environment turns hostile, buyer demographics shift and the competition is hungry. The era of wealthy foreigners beating a path to Knightsbridge simply because the Harrods name was above the door appears to be well and truly over.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Abaxx Technologies Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Earnings and Business Update Call. [Operator Instructions]

Please note that live questions will not be addressed until the Q&A portion of the call begins following prepared remarks. For those on the webcast, you may submit questions throughout the event by typing in the submit a question box on your screen. Questions will be addressed after the formal presentation has ended. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tara Hayes, Director of Communications. Please go ahead.

Tara Hayes

Thanks, Nick. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to those joining us from Singapore. Thank you for joining us today for the Abaxx Q4 ’25 Earnings and Business Update Call. My name is Tara Hayes, Director of Communications at Abaxx, and I’ll be directing today’s presentation.

With us on the line are Founder and CEO, Josh Crumb; Abaxx Chief Strategy Officer, David Greely; Abaxx Exchange Chief Commercial Officer, Joe Raia; and Abaxx Digital Title Lead, Leah Wald; Abaxx CFO, Steve Fray; and Chief Legal Officer, Jeff Lipton, are also on the line and will be joining us for the Q&A period following today’s prepared remarks.

Everyone should have access to our 2025 year-end reports and annual information form, which will be the