Map Shows COVID-19 Cases Rising in Nearly Every US State as CDC Tracks Late-Summer Surge Nationwide

COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in nearly every U.S. state, according to the latest epidemic modeling from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with a map of current transmission trends showing almost the entire country colored red for the first time this summer.

As of Aug. 19, 2026, the CDC’s Current Epidemic Trends model estimates that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 47 states, declining or likely declining in zero states, and not meaningfully changing in just two states, according to the agency’s own published data. That figure builds on an even broader assessment from the prior week; as of Aug. 12, the CDC had estimated infections were growing or likely growing in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, with Iowa the lone exception due to insufficient data available to generate a trend estimate, according to Newsweek.

The map’s near-total shift toward growth represents a dramatic escalation compared with conditions just a month earlier. On July 22, the CDC estimated infections were growing or likely growing in only 37 states, while 11 states were classified as experiencing stable transmission at that time, according to Newsweek’s earlier reporting on the model. Those 11 pockets of stability have since disappeared entirely from the map, reflecting how quickly the summer wave expanded from a regional phenomenon centered in the South and West into a fully nationwide trend.

The CDC’s model does not attempt to estimate the actual number of Americans currently infected with COVID-19. Instead, it relies on the effective reproduction number, known as Rt, to assess whether transmission is currently trending upward, downward or holding steady in a given location, functioning as one of the agency’s earliest available indicators of shifting disease activity, often flagging emerging trends before they become visible through other, slower-moving surveillance systems such as hospitalization or emergency department data. Newsweek reported that in many states, the CDC’s model now shows a greater than 99% statistical probability that infections are actively increasing.

Large, population-heavy states have been squarely caught up in the current wave. According to Newsweek, states including California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Georgia are all showing growth under the CDC’s latest modeling, while broader regional trends spanning much of the Midwest, Northeast, South and Mountain West are reflecting the same pattern of rising transmission.

Andrew Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told Newsweek the current nationwide surge fits a pattern the country has now experienced for several consecutive years. “This looks like a pattern that has been documented in the past few years. Late summer/early fall surge of COVID cases seems to be part of the expected pattern of COVID-19 cases that we see,” Pekosz said. He characterized the current wave’s pace as measured rather than explosive, drawing on his own recent clinical observations. “Cases are increasing at a relatively steady pace, they aren’t surging dramatically. These are the people I still see in the hospital,” Pekosz said, according to Newsweek’s reporting.

A separate expert quoted by Newsweek in coverage of the trend offered a broader framing of how COVID-19’s current seasonal pattern differs from the earlier years of the pandemic. “We are in the ‘seasonal’ phase and out of the ‘pandemic’ phase,” the professor of immunology said, describing the recurring late-summer uptick as consistent with how the virus is now expected to behave several years removed from its initial global emergence.

Despite the near-total geographic spread of rising transmission shown on the current map, health officials have continued to emphasize that overall disease severity indicators remain comparatively mild relative to earlier phases of the pandemic. The CDC’s broader surveillance data has continued to show relatively low levels of acute respiratory illness prompting medical care nationally, even as the specific trend toward increasing COVID-19 transmission has become nearly universal across the country’s state-level map.

The latest CDC estimates arrive as lawmakers continue to revisit aspects of the federal government’s broader pandemic-era response, according to Newsweek, a backdrop that has added political dimension to ongoing public discussion of how the government tracks and communicates COVID-19 trends nearly six years after the virus first emerged.

The CDC’s Current Epidemic Trends tool also allows users to view transmission estimates at the more localized Health Service Area level, in addition to the standard statewide map, offering a more granular picture of where within individual states transmission may be increasing most sharply. The agency has said it will continue updating both the statewide and localized versions of the map on a rolling basis as new surveillance data becomes available, with the CDC noting that all previous historical estimates remain accessible through its public data portal for those tracking how the current wave has evolved over time.

With nearly the entire country now shaded to indicate growing transmission, and with only a small handful of states, currently just two according to the most recent Aug. 19 update, showing stable rather than increasing spread, public health officials are likely to continue monitoring closely whether the current wave follows the same general trajectory as prior late-summer surges, typically peaking before beginning to recede as autumn approaches, or whether this year’s unusually broad geographic spread signals a somewhat different pattern than the country has experienced in recent COVID-19 seasons.

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