Market moves driven more by psychology than fundamentals: Samir Arora

Indian equity markets continue to move between global uncertainty and domestic earnings strength, with foreign flows, crude oil volatility, and macro headlines shaping near-term sentiment. In a conversation with ET Now, Samir Arora, Founder, Helios Capital shared a grounded but cautious reading of the current environment.

On foreign institutional investors, Arora said there is no fresh insight into their behaviour, but sentiment naturally weakens in falling markets. He remarked, “Everybody is a little bit upset… I do not have any new update.” According to him, the current phase is more about sentiment pressure than any structural shift in outlook.

On earnings, Arora noted that corporate results have actually surprised on the upside. He said, “Earnings have been better than one would have imagined,” although he added that the macro backdrop has turned less supportive in the near term. He suggested that while earnings strength was visible earlier, the current cycle is being weighed down by external conditions, even if these could improve if macro issues resolve over time.

On oil prices and currency pressure, Arora downplayed extreme concerns and emphasized that markets tend to overreact. He said, “It is all psychological,” arguing that even higher crude prices do not automatically translate into long-term economic damage. In his view, such shocks are often treated as permanent by markets, even though economies tend to adjust over time.

On portfolio positioning, Arora confirmed that his funds remain almost fully invested despite volatility. He stated, “Yes, absolutely,” and added that cash levels are minimal, saying, “Must be zero… 99% invested.” His approach, he indicated, is driven by staying invested rather than attempting to time macro swings.

On Adani-related stocks, Arora remained strongly positive, calling it a “100%” opportunity. He suggested that institutional participation and renewed buying interest from large investors have helped ease earlier concerns and improve confidence around these names.
On infrastructure, he highlighted that the space is highly selective rather than uniformly attractive, with segments like airports and certain large enterprises standing apart from traditional road and bridge construction businesses. On private banks, he acknowledged that performance has been weak in recent years but maintained that valuations have become attractive, while also pointing out that sustained foreign institutional selling has been a key overhang on the sector.Overall, Arora’s message was that markets often amplify short-term fears while underestimating longer-term adjustments. He summed up the sentiment by saying, “It is all mental… it is psychological,” reflecting his belief that much of the current volatility is driven more by perception than lasting structural damage.