Markets in waiting mode: Retail investors advised patience amid global tensions

Amid rising geopolitical tensions and heightened volatility in global markets, retail investors are increasingly grappling with a critical question—whether to prioritise capital protection or stay invested for an eventual recovery. The uncertainty, largely driven by conflict in the Middle East and its ripple effects on energy markets, has led to cautious sentiment across asset classes.

Responding to investor concerns, Vinit Bolinjkar from Ventura Securities struck a measured yet optimistic tone, suggesting that the current turbulence may be temporary rather than structural.

Speaking to ET Now he said, “I believe that this will pass away in some time because the way the entire operation is being run by Israel and US, they are systematically annihilating the top commanders who are in charge of IRGC. So, in a few days’ time, this will come to pass. And we have been very constructive with the way we have managed our oil inventories and we are the only country which has been able to pass through Hormuz. So, we are on a very strong wicket and things will get even stronger going ahead from here.”

His remarks underline a key factor supporting India’s relative resilience—energy security. With oil supply disruptions being one of the biggest global risks, countries with stronger reserves and diversified sourcing are better positioned to absorb shocks.

“I would just like to make a small observation. There are four countries who are quite well stocked with oil. So, obviously, US and Russia are the prime producers and China has got huge storages right now. India also has it. And so, I believe that these four large countries will come off quite less a scape than the others.”

This perspective aligns with the broader market view that while volatility may persist in the near term, structural advantages could help cushion the downside for certain economies, including India.
Looking ahead, Bolinjkar expects markets to respond positively once geopolitical tensions ease.“And I expect that whenever this thing pauses or whenever this war is over, that we will see a nice relief rally come through.”

Consumption Theme Still Intact
Despite the near-term caution, the outlook on domestic consumption remains constructive. Investors, however, are being advised to time their entry carefully rather than rush into the market during ongoing uncertainty.

“So, as I said, we handled our oil situation very well and government has been very bold to say that we would not see too much of disruption happen. So, once this thing settles down, NBFC will come back. Government will also provide a sop to the market because we need to get things back on track.”

He also highlighted multiple overhangs currently weighing on sentiment, including stalled global trade dynamics and supply-side anxieties in energy markets.

“There are a couple of things happening. One is the US trade deal is also off the table. Second is that oil will also have created a lot of supply anxieties everywhere and everyone is in a wait and watch mode because you are not getting enough of gas coming through.”

Wait, Watch, Then Act
For retail investors, the message is clear—patience over panic. While long-term opportunities remain intact, the immediate environment calls for restraint.

“These things will take a little bit of time to resolve and once in a few days when this thing is done with, things will come back and you should start nibbling then. Right now, it is not the time to go and buy because this thing can last for a little more than we think. But whenever this noise settles down, that is a time when you should be getting into stocks and consumption is one of our favourite themes.”

As markets navigate this uncertain phase, the emphasis appears to be on disciplined investing—protecting capital in the short term while preparing to capitalise on opportunities when clarity returns.