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F&O Talk | Sudeep Shah on why cash market trades better versus derivatives, for now. Strategy on HEG, IDBI, 4 more stocks
With just one more session to go in March, Nifty so far has plunged over 9% this month
Fear index India VIX settled at 26.80 on the NSE in the last session, up by 8.77%.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Q: The Israel-Iran war flipped the overall script in March which is seasonally a strong month as Nifty is down nearly 9%. Based on the F&O rollover data, what is your expectation for April?
Since the onset of the US–Iran war–led sell-off, one recurring pattern has consistently emerged in the markets. Short-lived pullbacks lasting 2–3 trading sessions have repeatedly been followed by sharp gap-down openings. Each of these brief rebounds has lured traders into a false sense of recovery, triggering FOMO-driven participation under the assumption that the worst is over. However, these pullbacks have consistently failed to sustain, and the optimism has quickly given way to fresh rounds of aggressive selling, often materializing as large gap-downs over the subsequent 2–3 trading sessions, making one question whether the next bounce is an opportunity or just another trap waiting to unfold.
This repetitive cycle of hope followed by sudden downside shocks is not only increasing volatility but is also leading to significant wealth erosion, particularly for short-term traders and leveraged positions. The inability of the market to build on pullbacks highlights the fragile sentiment and reinforces the need for caution, discipline, and risk management in the current environment because when conviction is missing, even small triggers can lead to disproportionately large reactions.
Month-to-date, the benchmark index Nifty has declined by over 9%, marking its steepest monthly fall since the Covid 19–induced market collapse. At the same time, disruptions in global gas supply are creating a diverse set of challenges across multiple industries, particularly those dependent on energy-intensive operations. These supply constraints have led to rising cost pressures, uncertainty around margins, and delayed investment decisions. Collectively, these factors are dampening hopes of an earnings revival and eroding overall market confidence, further weighing on investor sentiment and risk appetite—raising a deeper concern about whether the worst of the earnings downgrades is still ahead.
From a technical perspective, there has been no change since last week. The index continues to trade below its key moving averages, while momentum indicators remain firmly in bearish territory, indicating that downside pressure persists. Interestingly, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices are displaying relative outperformance compared to the frontline indices. However, given the prevailing volatility and fragile sentiment, price action in the mid and smallcap space over the next 2–3 weeks to assess the sustainability of this relative strength because history suggests that leadership often shifts just when confidence starts to build.
Talking about crucial levels, the 22,650–22,600 zone is expected to act as an important support area for Nifty. A sustained break below 22600 could open the door for further downside, potentially dragging the index towards 22,400, followed by 22,200 in the short term. On the upside, the 23150–23200 region is likely to remain a critical resistance zone.
Q: Banks have been bleeding primarily because of FII outflows. Can you spot trading opportunities in Bank Nifty (or bank stocks) or at least suggest traders ways to cut their losses if more selling continues?
The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty has significantly underperformed the frontline indices during March. Month to date, the index is down by over 13% and has formed a sizeable bearish candle, highlighting strong selling pressure at higher levels. The ratio chart of the index as compared to Nifty is marking the sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms.
The weakness is further evident from the fact that the index is currently trading nearly 8% below its 200-day EMA and around 9% below its 100-day EMA, underscoring the loss of medium- to long-term trend support. From a momentum standpoint, the daily RSI has entered a super bearish zone as per RSI range shift rules, while the weekly RSI remains in bearish territory and continues to decline, indicating sustained downside momentum across timeframes.
Given the current price structure and negative momentum setup, the index is likely to extend its southward trajectory in the short term. In terms of key levels, the 51,700–51,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate support area. A sustained breakdown below 51,800 could result in further correction towards 51000, followed by 50,400 in the near term.
On the upside, any recovery attempt is likely to face strong resistance in the 53400–53500 zone, which will act as a major hurdle and supply area for the index.
Q: There is a bloodbath across situation and with Iran-Israel war uncertainty, it is very difficult to take an informed call. In such a situation, are you seeing themes/pockets of opportunities for investors?
The Nifty CPSE index is displaying relative outperformance compared to the broader and frontline indices. While the index has not shown strong bullish momentum, it is currently moving in a consolidation phase, even as the broader market undergoes a corrective decline. This relative resilience suggests better stability and selective accumulation, positioning Nifty CPSE as a comparatively stronger pocket amid an otherwise weak market environment.
Q: Unlike 2025, investors had a refuge in gold and silver and were putting money there. That situation has changed dramatically as we see bullion prices falling sharply. What will be your advice to investors whether to remain invested or preserve cash?
Market’s lackluster performance can be attributed to Nifty Bank, which has delivered its third worst performance in March in the past 20 years, declining by nearly 11%. What do bank Nifty charts suggest and how to trade?
Yes, the market’s lackluster performance has largely been driven by Bank Nifty, which has corrected by nearly 13%. This sharp underperformance has exerted significant pressure on the broader indices and weakened overall market sentiment.
Chart patterns of Bank Nifty continue to reflect a weak and bearish structure, indicating limited scope for a sustainable recovery in the near term. Given the prevailing trend and momentum setup, we recommend adopting a “sell on rise” strategy, as any short-term pullbacks are likely to remain corrective and may attract fresh selling pressure.
Q: For risk-takers, volatility brings opportunities for making money. Will you prefer cash markets or F&O?
Volatility is a double-edged sword. It creates opportunity, but also amplifies risk. For a risk-taker, the goal isn’t just to chase swings, but to manage them effectively. In volatile markets, moves are sharp and fast. If you’re right, profits can come quickly; if you’re wrong, losses can escalate just as rapidly. This is where the choice between cash and F&O becomes crucial.
F&O is a leveraged product, so volatility acts as a multiplier. If a trade goes against you, it becomes a double whammy. Price movement and leverage work against your capital. Even the right view can go wrong due to timing or sudden reversals. In contrast, cash markets offer better control. With proper position sizing and risk management, you can use volatility to your advantage without the pressure of leverage.
In such phases, it’s wiser to focus on survival first, because volatility rewards discipline, but punishes over-leverage.
Q: HEG, Emcure and Triveni Engineering were among top gainers this week, while Firstcry, IDBI Bank and Lodha have been big losers. What should investors do with them?
HEG had briefly slipped below its previous swing low of 491 on the daily chart but quickly reclaimed those levels, followed by an impressive rebound supported by a sharp rise in volumes. The DI+ crossing above DI- on the ADX indicator suggests that buyers are gaining control over sellers. As long as the stock holds above the 520–515 zone, the pullback is likely to extend further.
Emcure has witnessed a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart. The RSI is trending higher and sustaining above 60, indicating strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the DI+ crossover reinforces the dominance of buyers. The uptrend is likely to continue as long as the stock trades above 1580.
Triveni Engineering has staged a strong rebound from its key support zone of 335–325. The MACD has crossed above the signal line, indicating improving momentum. However, the stock faces stiff resistance around 418–420. A decisive breakout above this zone could lead to an extension of the pullback.
FirstCry has been consolidating in the 252–207 range since 19th February. The RSI failed to cross the 60 mark and has drifted lower, suggesting weakening momentum. The MACD remains below both the signal and zero line, indicating a bearish bias. The stock is likely to remain under pressure as long as it trades below 250.
Both IDBI Bank and Lodha are trading significantly below their key short- and long-term moving averages. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening bearish trend, while the RSI hovering around 20 reflects strong downside momentum. 72 for IDBI Bank and 760 for Lodha act as immediate resistance levels, and as long as the stocks trade below these levels, the trend is likely to remain bearish.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
Business
Is Is Dubai International Airport Open Now? Operations Continue with Delays Amid Regional Tensions
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Dubai International Airport (DXB) remained open for limited commercial flight operations on Saturday, March 28, 2026, with Emirates and flydubai maintaining reduced schedules despite ongoing regional security concerns, recent weather disruptions and a backlog of delays from earlier airspace restrictions.

The world’s busiest airport for international passengers was handling departures and arrivals, though with significantly fewer flights than normal. Real-time flight status pages showed multiple Emirates and flydubai services operating or boarding throughout the day, including routes to Riyadh, Jeddah, New Delhi and other regional and long-haul destinations. However, many international carriers continued operating under restrictions or suspensions stemming from earlier regional tensions.
Dubai Airports advised passengers to check directly with their airlines for the latest flight status and to allow extra time when traveling to the airport. Official updates emphasized that while the facility was operational, conditions remained fluid due to a combination of factors including past drone incidents, airspace management issues and recent heavy rainfall that strained ground operations.
Current Operational Status
As of March 28, DXB was not running at full capacity. Emirates and flydubai accounted for the majority of movements, with around 200-210 combined departures reported on recent days. Limited services from other carriers, including some regional airlines, were also active. Foreign airlines faced ongoing restrictions, with several major carriers such as Lufthansa, SWISS, ITA Airways and Austrian Airlines maintaining suspensions through at least late March or early May.
Flight tracking data indicated low to moderate delay indices at times, with some flights showing on-time performance while others faced pushbacks due to crew positioning, ground handling or lingering effects from prior disruptions. Passengers were strongly urged not to head to the airport without confirmed bookings and airline clearance.
The airport’s Terminal 3, the main hub for Emirates, saw active boarding for various flights, while Terminal 2 handled flydubai and other low-cost and regional operations. No full suspension was in effect on March 28, unlike earlier periods in February and early March when operations were halted or severely limited due to security alerts.
Background of Recent Disruptions
DXB has faced multiple challenges in recent weeks. Regional geopolitical tensions led to temporary airspace closures and missile/drone alerts in late February and March, prompting suspensions and gradual phased reopenings starting around March 2. Drone debris incidents damaged infrastructure in some cases, while severe weather — including heavy rain and flooding risks — added pressure on March 23-27, causing significant delays and cancellations.
Emirates, the largest operator at DXB, has been gradually restoring services but continues operating a reduced network. flydubai has similarly maintained a limited but steady schedule. Repatriation and essential flights helped clear some backlog earlier in the month, but full recovery remains ongoing.
Dubai World Central (Al Maktoum International, DWC) has also seen limited operations during the same period, serving as a secondary hub for cargo and some passenger flights.
Advice for Travelers on March 28
Authorities and airlines recommend the following for anyone with plans involving DXB:
- Check your flight status directly with your airline or through the official Dubai Airports flight information page within one hour of departure.
- Allow significantly more time than usual for airport transfers, security and check-in due to potential delays and reduced staffing or processing capacity.
- Confirm ground transportation arrangements, as road conditions from recent weather may still affect access.
- Monitor official sources including dubaiairports.ae, Emirates, flydubai and the UAE’s National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority for updates.
- Have contingency plans, including rebooking options or refunds, especially if traveling on affected international carriers.
Travelers already at the airport or en route should stay informed via airport announcements and airline apps. Special assistance services remain available for passengers needing support.
Broader Regional Aviation Context
The situation at DXB reflects wider challenges across Gulf aviation hubs. Neighboring airports in Abu Dhabi, Doha and others have experienced similar periods of restricted operations, airspace management and weather-related impacts. Many airlines have adjusted schedules, offered rebooking flexibility and issued travel advisories for the region.
The combination of security-related airspace issues and unusual March weather patterns has created one of the more disruptive periods for Dubai aviation in recent years, though operations have shown resilience with gradual normalization.
Looking Ahead
As March 28 progressed, conditions at DXB were expected to remain operational but pressured. Forecasts suggested improving weather stability later in the weekend, potentially easing some ground handling constraints. Full restoration of pre-crisis schedules could take additional weeks depending on regional developments and infrastructure assessments.
Dubai Airports continues to prioritize safety while working to restore normal connectivity. The hub’s strategic importance means authorities are focused on minimizing long-term disruption to global travel routes.
For real-time information, passengers should rely on the official Dubai Airports website flight status tool, airline mobile apps and direct customer service channels rather than third-party trackers alone, as information can change rapidly.
On this Saturday in late March 2026, Dubai International Airport was open and processing flights, but with notable limitations and the strong recommendation for travelers to exercise caution and verify details before heading to the facility. Those with upcoming travel through DXB are encouraged to stay flexible and prepared for possible changes.
Business
Weekly Commentary: Lacking A Good Scenario
I’m at about 30 years persevering as a “professional bear.” My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market – for one of the most brilliant individuals I’ve met – was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear (that concluded at the end of 2014), working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008. In the early-nineties, I became an impassioned reader of The Richebacher Letter. The great Dr. Richebacher opened my eyes to Austrian economics and solidified my lifetime passion for economics and macro analysis. I had the good fortune to assist Dr. Richebacher with his publication from 1996 through 2001. Prior to my work in investments, I worked as a treasury analyst at Toyota’s U.S. headquarters. It was working at Toyota during the Japanese Bubble period and the 1987 stock market crash where I first recognized my love for macro analysis. Fresh out of college I worked as a Price Waterhouse CPA. I graduated summa cum laude from the University of Oregon (Accounting and Finance majors, 1984) and later received an MBA from Indiana University (1989). By late in the nineties, I was convinced that momentous developments were unfolding in finance, the markets and policymaking that were going unrecognized by conventional analysis and the media. I was inspired to start my blog, which became the Credit Bubble Bulletin, by the desire to shed light on these developments. I believe there is great value in contemporaneous analysis, and I’ll point to Benjamin Anderson’s brilliant writings in the “Chase Economic Bulletin” during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression era. Ben Bernanke has referred to understanding the forces leading up to the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” I believe “The Grail” will instead be discovered through knowledge and understanding of the current extraordinary global Bubble period.
Business
Is Abu Dhabi Airport Open? Zayed International Airport Open but Operating at Reduced Capacity
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Zayed International Airport, the primary gateway to Abu Dhabi and home base for Etihad Airways, remains open as of Saturday, March 28, 2026, but is functioning with significantly limited operations due to lingering effects of regional geopolitical tensions and recent rainy weather that has compounded flight delays across the UAE.

Travelers checking “Is Abu Dhabi Airport open right now?” should note that while the airport has resumed partial commercial services following earlier airspace closures tied to Middle East conflicts, passengers are strongly advised not to head to the terminals without a confirmed ticket and direct notification from their airline. Access remains restricted to confirmed travelers only, according to the official airport website.
The airport, formerly known as Abu Dhabi International Airport and now branded as Zayed International Airport (code: AUH), has been gradually rebuilding its schedule since early March. Full suspensions occurred in late February and early March 2026 amid airspace restrictions linked to escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel. Limited exceptional, priority and repatriation flights began resuming around March 2, with Etihad Airways restarting select commercial services by March 6.
As of late March, the airport is handling flights at roughly 40% to 70% of normal capacity, depending on the day and airline, according to multiple travel advisories and reports. Etihad, the flag carrier, is operating approximately 60-70 daily departures on key routes, focusing on major hubs such as London Heathrow, Paris, Mumbai, Bangkok and New York JFK where possible. However, many international carriers have reduced frequencies, rerouted services or suspended operations entirely until later in 2026. British Airways, for instance, has halted Abu Dhabi services through late October or beyond, while others like Lufthansa and several Indian carriers have implemented temporary cuts or full refunds for affected bookings.
Recent rainy weather on March 26 further disrupted recovery efforts in Abu Dhabi and neighboring Dubai, leading to additional delays and cancellations even as limited schedules resumed. Airports across the UAE, including Zayed International, shifted to carefully controlled operations with significant delays reported on both departures and arrivals. Smaller UAE airports have shown partial recovery but remain unstable, prompting broad advisories for travelers to verify details directly with airlines.
Live flight tracking platforms such as Flightradar24 and the airport’s own departures board show a mix of activity. Early Saturday morning departures included Etihad flights to Paris (EY031) that operated, while others like a service to Amsterdam were listed as cancelled in sample data. Arrivals and departures reflect a thinned-out schedule, with many flights still subject to last-minute changes. The official Zayed International Airport website prominently displays a notice: “Passengers are advised not to travel to the airport unless they hold a confirmed ticket and have been explicitly advised by their airline to do so.”
Etihad Airways has emphasized in updates that its current flight program is fluid. The airline recommends checking etihad.com for the latest status, ensuring contact details are current for rebooking notifications, and avoiding the airport without explicit confirmation. Some repositioning, cargo and humanitarian flights continue under strict safety approvals coordinated with UAE authorities.
The disruptions trace back to airspace closures starting around Feb. 28, 2026, following reported military actions in the region. Over 4,000 daily flights were affected across Gulf hubs at the peak, stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers globally. Dubai International (DXB) and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed faced full or near-full halts initially, with phased reopenings prioritizing safety corridors. By mid-March, operations had improved to low-to-moderate disruption levels on remaining flights, though capacity constraints persist due to ongoing security considerations and fragile recovery.
Abu Dhabi Airports, the operator, confirmed partial resumption on March 2 in coordination with authorities and partners. The airport, one of the Middle East’s fastest-growing hubs with its modern Terminal A, has focused resources on essential connectivity while maintaining heightened security protocols. Prayer times and passenger services like the Airport Express bus to Dubai and Salam Meet & Assist remain available for those cleared to travel.
For passengers with existing bookings, options include rebooking on available limited services, seeking refunds where suspensions apply, or exploring alternative routings through less-affected airports. Travel experts recommend monitoring official sources closely: the Zayed International Airport website (zayedinternationalairport.ae), Etihad’s flight status page, and global trackers like FlightAware or Skyscanner. Apps from the airport and airline provide real-time updates on gates, immigration and baggage.
The situation highlights the vulnerability of Gulf aviation to regional events. The UAE, a major transit and tourism hub, has seen its connectivity impacted, affecting business travelers, tourists and expatriates. Visit Abu Dhabi tourism authorities note that while the airport is operational, visitors should confirm entry requirements and flight viability before planning trips. Broader Middle East airspace advisories continue to influence long-haul carriers from Europe, Asia and North America.
Looking ahead, full normalization depends on stabilizing regional airspace and weather patterns. Aviation analysts expect a gradual ramp-up in April, but caution that schedules could shift rapidly. Some routes, particularly to certain European and Asian cities, may take months to restore completely.
Travelers affected by cancellations should contact their airlines promptly for reprotection or refunds. Insurance holders are urged to review policies for disruption coverage. Those transiting through Abu Dhabi should build in extra buffer time given potential delays even on operating flights.
Zayed International Airport continues to prioritize safety and passenger well-being. With its state-of-the-art facilities, including advanced check-in and duty-free options when operational, the airport aims to return to its status as a premium hub once conditions allow.
In summary, yes — Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport is open right now, but with constrained services, ongoing advisories and a strong recommendation to verify every detail before travel. The evolving nature of both geopolitical and weather-related factors means constant monitoring is essential for anyone planning flights to, from or through AUH in the coming days and weeks.
Business
DouYu: Worth The Risk At Far Below Cash On The Books
DouYu: Worth The Risk At Far Below Cash On The Books
Business
Pakistan to host regional summit on Monday amid Iran cease-fire talks- report

Pakistan to host regional summit on Monday amid Iran cease-fire talks- report
Business
Whale’s Insight: A Macro-Driven Market With No Safe Haven, And No End To Volatility
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images
This week, Trump’s flip-flopping triggered three major market reversals in five days as gold, equities, and crypto fell in unison with no safe haven in sight. Multiple scenarios are taking shape depending on how long the Hormuz closure lasts
Business
Rentomojo IPO: Furniture e-marketplace files DRHP with Sebi; to raise Rs 150 crore from fresh issue
The public offer will be a mix of issuing fresh shares and an offer for sale (OFS) where existing shareholders will offload up to 28,399,567 equity shares.
About Rentomojo
Rentomojo is an online rental and subscription platform for home furniture and appliances. Its promoter is Geetansh Bamania.The company operates a technology-driven, full-stack direct-to-consumer (D2C) online rental and subscription platform for furniture and home appliances in India. The DRHP claims that the company is a market leader in this segment with an estimated 42%–47% share in the organised home furniture and appliances rental segment (excluding water purifiers) based on subscription revenue in the fiscal of 2025, with 2,27,511 live subscribers across 22 cities as of September 30, 2025, supported by a scaled service network that includes 21 warehouses and approximately 444,486 sq. ft. of warehousing space.
The company quoted a Redseer report to back its claims.
It operates an omni-channel platform comprising its online interface and 67 experience stores across India (as of September 30, 2025), offering flexible subscription access to furniture and appliances across a portfolio of 728,773 live products.
Also read: IPO Calendar: No fresh issues next week; Coal India subsidiary, 6 more companies set to debut
Rentomojo financials
The company’s revenue from operations stood at Rs 176.61 crore for the six months ended September 30, 2025, and Rs 266 crore for fiscal 2025, while restated profit after tax was at Rs 61.38 crore for the six months ended September 30, 2025 and Rs 43.11 crore for FY25.
IPO proceeds
The company has proposed to utilise the net proceeds from the initial public offer for multiple purposes, including the repayment or prepayment, in full or in part, of certain outstanding borrowings along with the accrued interest thereon availed by the company; the payment of lease rentals or license fees for its warehouses and experience stores (referred to as the “Premises”); and general corporate purposes.
Following its IPO, the stock will be listed on the NSE and BSE.
Lead managers
Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Limited, Axis Capital Limited, and IIFL Capital Services Limited (formerly known as IIFL Securities Limited) are the Book Running Lead Managers to the issue.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
Business
Charts signal more pain ahead for Nifty; select stocks still offer tactical opportunities: Nagaraj Shetti
Technical analyst Nagaraj Shetti from HDFC Securities believes the trend remains firmly bearish.
“No doubt market is in a downtrend. Every rise is being sold. Lower tops and bottoms over the past month indicate bears are in control. The recent bounce near 23,400–23,500 has formed a lower top. Nifty could break 22,450 next week and slide towards 22,000 in the coming weeks.”
Weak Supports Amid Global Pressure
Despite intermittent recoveries, the underlying weakness persists, with global factors weighing heavily on sentiment.
“I do not think stability will come soon. Markets are echoing global pressure—rupee and crude are key concerns. The 22,450 level is just a psychological support. Given the bearish pattern, we could soon break below this level.”
Coal India Shows Relative Strength
Even in a falling market, some stocks are holding up better than the benchmark.“Coal India has corrected, but the trend remains positive with higher tops and bottoms. Around 430–435 is strong support. The stock could bounce back towards 475–480 in the near term.”
Stock Strategy: Buy Strength, Sell Weakness
Shetti suggests a balanced approach with opportunities on both sides of the market.
“Ather Energy is in a strong uptrend with consistent higher tops and bottoms. It has broken key resistance near 750–760. One can buy around current levels for a target of 850, with a stop loss at 760.”
“On the short side, BDL is weak with a clear bearish pattern. One can sell around current levels for a target of 1070, keeping a stop loss at 1160.”
Outlook
With multiple expiries and limited trading sessions ahead, volatility is likely to remain high. While selective stocks may outperform, the broader market trend continues to favour caution, with charts pointing towards further downside in the Nifty.
Business
China’s Moonshot AI Seeks Listing in Hong Kong Under Heightened Scrutiny
Moonshot AI, one of China’s most promising artificial-intelligence startups, is considering changing its corporate structure to pave the way for an initial public offering in Hong Kong, people familiar with the matter said.
The company is raising a new round of private funding that would value it at around $18 billion, some of the people said. A previous round of fundraising from global investors in December had valued the company around $4.3 billion.
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