Mixed Signals From U.S. And Iran

Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:

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Mega IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPACE) may file for IPO later this week ​or next, seeking to raise over $75B.

Six Figure Limit: The CRFB proposes capping Social Security benefits at $100K for wealthy couples.

The stock market is reacting positively to President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran wants a deal to end the war, which is now in its fourth week. Even crude oil futures are down, signaling optimism over the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an off-ramp from the conflict. But is there an end in sight?

Washington’s view: The U.S. reportedly sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, delivered through Pakistani intermediaries. The plan addresses Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively blocked. It remains unclear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran alongside the U.S., is on board with the proposal. Trump also announced that Iran offered the U.S. a “present” that’s “worth a tremendous amount of money” as a show of good faith amid negotiations. He said the gift was related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran’s response: But Iran has refuted Trump’s claims. “Has the level of your inner struggle reached ‌the ⁠stage of you negotiating with yourself?” Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya ​Central Headquarters (Iran’s main military command), asked. “You will see neither your investments in the region nor the former prices of energy and oil again, until you understand that stability in the region is guaranteed by the powerful hand of our armed forces.” Tehran has reportedly set a high bar for ceasefire negotiations, demanding that the U.S. shut down its Gulf bases and pay reparations for its attacks. It also wants to collect fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and keep its missile program with no negotiations to limit it, among other demands.

Bigger picture: “Markets desperately want to believe in the positive,” UBS’ Paul Donovan noted. “Focus on the apparent 15-point U.S. plan to end the war has received more attention than Iranian dismissals of this, or the fact that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is minimal.” SA analyst Eugenio Catone on Monday said he remained cautious despite Trump’s de-escalation claims. “At this point, I believe that both Iran and Israel are the main actors in this war, so they are the most reliable sources to understand where this conflict is really heading,” he said. “Right now, none of them is stepping back; therefore, I consider the recent stock market enthusiasm as a dead cat bounce.”

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Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan +2.9%. Hong Kong +1.1%. China +1.3%. India +1.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +1.5%. Frankfurt +1.5%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.8%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude -5.1% to $87.67. Gold +3.4% to $4,553.50. Bitcoin +0.3% to $71,352.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 4.33%.

On The Calendar

Companies reporting today include Beyond Meat (BYND) and PDD (PDD).

See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.