Morrisons feels the squeeze as Lidl edges ahead in the supermarket pecking order

There are few sharper symbols of how brutally the British grocery market has reshaped itself over the past decade than this: Morrisons, once one of the proud “big four”, has been overtaken by Lidl in the league table of the nation’s largest supermarkets.

The Bradford-based grocer reported that group like-for-like sales rose 2.2 per cent in the three months to the end of April, a slowdown from the 2.8 per cent growth it posted in the opening quarter of the year. Total sales edged up 1.7 per cent to £4 billion over the period, lifted, the company said, by fresh food promotions tied to Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day and Easter. Underlying earnings (Ebitda) for the first half climbed 5.7 per cent to £323 million.

Steady enough numbers in isolation. The problem for Morrisons is what was happening elsewhere on the shelf.

According to Worldpanel by Numerator, Lidl held 8.6 per cent of the UK grocery market in the 12 weeks to 17 May, nudging ahead of Morrisons on 8.3 per cent and claiming the title of Britain’s fifth-largest grocer. For a chain that controlled barely more than 1 per cent of the market at the turn of the millennium, it is a remarkable ascent, and one we have tracked closely as Lidl crossed the threshold.

Morrisons, predictably, is not minded to concede the point. The grocer argued that the Worldpanel figures “underestimate” its true position because they exclude convenience stores. A spokesman added that the chain had “maintained our share while not opening new supermarkets, unlike the discounters who continue to add significant new space”. There is data to support the pushback: separate figures from NIQ put Morrisons on 8.5 per cent for the same window, just ahead of Lidl’s 8.3 per cent. The trade bible The Grocer noted that the two are now running neck and neck, the precise ranking depending on whose tape measure you trust.

Either way, the direction of travel is unmistakable, and it lands at an awkward moment.

Rami Baitiéh, who has led the recovery effort since the end of 2023, struck a measured note. The grocer was operating in a “highly competitive market”, he said, and remained focused on delivering “the best value for customers”.

The competitive backdrop is only half the story. Morrisons has been labouring under a heavy debt load since the American private equity group Clayton Dubilier & Rice acquired it in 2021, a deal that piled £6.6 billion of borrowings onto its balance sheet. The strain still shows in the statutory accounts: the group booked a pre-tax loss of £381 million in its latest financial year, a modest improvement on the £414 million loss the year before.

There has been genuine progress on the debt itself. Net debt has fallen 46 per cent to £3.17 billion since 2022, helped along by redundancies and the sale of stores and petrol forecourts. The company now operates around 500 supermarkets alongside a clutch of convenience outlets. Baitiéh, who has described the recovery as a “marathon”, says he is seeing “green shoots every single day”.

One asset Morrisons appears determined to hold onto is its food production arm. It remains the only major UK supermarket group to own its entire food manufacturing supply chain, processing roughly a quarter of the fresh food sold in its aisles. The division, Myton Food Group, runs about 10 sites across the country turning out eggs, meat, chilled food, flowers, seafood, produce and baked goods.

Speculation over its future has rumbled on. The Telegraph reported earlier this year that Morrisons was weighing a sale of the unit as the conflict in Iran stoked inflation fears among British businesses. The Grocer countered that the company was “not in serious negotiations” to sell Myton. Baitiéh himself was unequivocal in January, calling the manufacturing operation the “DNA of Morrisons”, adding that “it’s going to stay”. Rather than offload it, the grocer has been courting rival supermarkets to take supply from Myton, turning a cost centre into a potential revenue stream.

Like much of the sector, Morrisons has been vocal about the burden of government-imposed costs, singling out a £75 million annual hit from the rise in employer national insurance contributions. It is a complaint echoed across the high street, with Tesco among those urging ministers to ease the pressure as input inflation and geopolitical uncertainty cloud the outlook.

Baitiéh said the supermarket continued to “monitor the impact of input inflation very closely and we remain committed to doing whatever we can to help keep prices down for customers”. He has previously argued that rising prices “particularly affect pensioners and other less affluent groups, which comprise a significant proportion of our Morrisons customer base”.

For all the pressure, the tone from the top was upbeat on prospects. The grocer had made an “encouraging start” to the third quarter, Baitiéh said, with “strong plans in place to make the most of the World Cup and Father’s Day”. Whether that is enough to halt the discounters’ march, or simply to slow it, will define the next chapter of a turnaround that is far from finished.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.