A third runway at Heathrow would move 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise accrue in the UK regions to the airport by 2050, according to New Economics Foundation analysis of Department for Transport modelling published last month.

The NEF analysis of the DfT economic paper also found that 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports would go to Heathrow instead.

Birmingham airport is set to lose 7.5 million passengers a year by 2050 under the DfT forecasts, a decrease economists put at about 9,500 jobs foregone at the airport and in its supply chain. That accounts for almost 10,000 of the West Midlands total.

The paper was published alongside the government’s consultation on the Heathrow expansion national policy statement, which MPs must approve before the runway can be built.

DfT modelling published with the consultation puts the overall GDP impact of expansion at up to 0.05 per cent a year. Rachel Reeves, the previous chancellor, had championed the scheme on growth grounds.

A peer review carried out for the DfT of its own GDP analysis states: “In my view, it would be erroneous to claim a broad distribution of the gains from Heathrow to regions on the basis of the modelling.”

The distribution of benefits across the UK is one of four tests the government set for approving the scheme.

The findings come a little over a week after Andy Burnham became prime minister. Burnham has said too much infrastructure spending goes to the south of England and has promised to rebalance it with a No 10 North.

Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, said: “With every new release of data, Heathrow’s proposed third runway is looking less like a plan for growth and more like a plan to move jobs and investment to London and the south-east. The third runway will take spending out of the places that need it most, anathema to what Burnham stands for.

“As the GDP case for expansion has evaporated, and the environmental damages will be significant, it’s unclear why this is proceeding. The winners from the scheme are the foreign shareholders who, as things stand, will be gifted a guaranteed return in exchange for taking on minimal private risk.”

The government said the NEF analysis focused on a limited period and was misleading. A DfT spokesperson said: “This analysis doesn’t factor in the potential for over 60,000 local jobs that Heathrow expansion will bring. The benefits will be felt across the UK, with up to 40% of the £2.6bn boost to the economy outside of London and the south-east.

“In fact, by 2055 when the expansion is in full swing, passenger numbers at Birmingham airport are forecast to almost triple in size, leading to more local jobs.”

Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow chief executive, said the government’s economic models did not capture all the benefits, including £150bn in trade. “Trade unions, businesses and airports right across the country back this project because they can see the real benefits,” he said.

“The government itself acknowledges that the full economic value of these benefits extends far beyond what can be measured through traditional infrastructure appraisal models, which currently don’t capture any benefit from more exports or the tens of billions of pounds in private investment in UK supply chains.”

Other impact assessments published alongside the consultation found that constructing the runway would have significant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of up to three million people living nearby.

The current plan is for a 3,500-metre runway passing over the present location of the M25, at an estimated cost of £33bn. It would allow Heathrow to operate up to 756,000 flights a year, against 480,000 now. Ministers have promised to accelerate construction so the runway opens by 2035.

The scheme has been approved by government twice and never completed, and questions over its cost and timeline have been raised by outside analysts. Sceptics include Ed Miliband, now foreign secretary, who opposed expansion within the last Labour government that approved it. Woldbye said: “We look forward to welcoming [Miliband] here a lot more when he is going travelling.”

Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

Retail sales volumes fell at a slower pace in the year to July, with the weighted balance rising to -26 per cent from -54 per cent in June, according to the CBI’s monthly Distributive Trades Survey published on Monday.

Retailers expect sales volumes to decline at a similar rate in the year to August, at -26 per cent.

The survey was conducted between 26 June and 14 July, with 191 firms responding: 67 retailers, 105 wholesalers and 19 motor traders.

Retailers separately judged July’s sales to be poor for the time of year, though to a lesser degree than in June, at -18 per cent against -40 per cent. August’s sales are expected to fall short of seasonal norms by a wider margin, at -29 per cent.

Online retail sales volumes fell in the year to July at a balance of -47 per cent, from zero in June. Retailers expect internet sales to fall at a similar rate in August, at -48 per cent.

Retail orders placed upon suppliers contracted at a faster pace, at -31 per cent from -26 per cent in June. Retailers expect the rate of decline to accelerate to -36 per cent next month.

Retail stock volumes relative to expected sales stood at +16 per cent, against +19 per cent in June and a long-run average of +17 per cent. Stock positions are expected to soften to +12 per cent in August.

Elsewhere in the distribution sector, wholesale sales volumes were broadly unchanged in the year to July, at +2 per cent from -20 per cent in June, ending 25 consecutive months of decline. Wholesalers expect sales to fall again in August, at -7 per cent.

Motor trades sales volumes grew at +57 per cent in the year to July, the fastest pace since April 2024, from -30 per cent in June. Motor traders expect growth of +50 per cent in August.

Total distribution sales volumes were broadly flat at +1 per cent, from -33 per cent in June, the strongest reading since May 2024. Sales are expected to contract at -5 per cent next month.

Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, said: “Retailers reported that the ongoing sales downturn lost steam in July, but a recovery still looks some way off as gloomy sentiment and elevated cost pressures weigh on activity. That said, conditions in the rest of the distribution sector were less downbeat, with wholesalers seeing stable volumes for the first time in over two years and motor trade sales rebounding.”

He added: “Distribution firms will welcome the Prime Minister’s focus on supporting local high streets and will be looking for broader business rates reform to address one of the key constraints on investment and growth. To deliver inclusive growth in every postcode, the government must also take further action to tackle rising labour costs while protecting labour market flexibility, so that the sector can continue to provide young people with rewarding routes into work.”

The government announced on 23 July that pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England will receive a 20 per cent cut to their business rates bills from April next year, in a package it values at around £100 million a year. Nearly 32,000 premises will benefit, saving the typical pub an estimated £1,100 in the next financial year, according to the announcement. Prime Minister Andy Burnham had set out the rates cut in an interview earlier in July before taking office.

The government said it would return to wider business rates reform, including small business rates relief, at the Budget. The Federation of Small Businesses has asked the Treasury to lift the relief threshold from £15,000 to £25,000 after an estimated 104,000 small business premises were brought into the rates regime in April.

Figures compiled by UHY Hacker Young show that employers’ National Insurance contributions rose by £28bn in the 12 months to 31 March 2026, a rise of 24 per cent.

In June’s survey, the CBI reported that retail sales for the time of year were judged poor to the greatest degree since January 2024.

The mean retail sales balance in the survey since July 1983 is +7 per cent.

Paul Jones

Harvard alumni and former New York Times journalist. Editor of Business Matters for over 15 years, the UKs largest business magazine. I am also head of Capital Business Media’s automotive division working for clients such as Red Bull Racing, Honda, Aston Martin and Infiniti.

SK Hynix Inc. shares tumbled sharply Monday, falling 8.69% to $141.14 on the Nasdaq, as a blockbuster stock market debut from a Chinese memory chip rival triggered a broad selloff across the global memory and storage sector.

The decline erased $13.43 from the American depositary receipts of the South Korean chipmaker, extending a volatile stretch for the stock just one day before its highly anticipated second-quarter earnings report.

A Blockbuster Chinese IPO Rattles the Sector

The catalyst behind Monday’s selloff was a blockbuster Shanghai IPO that revived long-running fears of Chinese memory competition, landing on top of enormous year-to-date gains and giving the day’s trading the look of both fresh news and profit-taking after a historic run.

China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, soared more than 500% in its Shanghai STAR Market debut, becoming mainland China’s most valuable company with a market capitalization of approximately $540 billion, after an offering that raised between $8.6 billion and $9.8 billion. CXMT is now the world’s fourth-largest DRAM maker with an 8% market share, trailing Samsung at 36%, SK Hynix at 29%, and Micron at 24%.

A Sector-Wide Reaction, Not Just SK Hynix

SK Hynix was far from alone in Monday’s decline. SanDisk sank 12% to $1,270, Micron Technology fell 5% to $871, and Western Digital dropped 7% to $483, with the coordinated selloff spanning both NAND and DRAM manufacturers, signaling a sector-wide reaction rather than a single-stock story. The Roundhill Memory ETF, a pure-play memory-chip fund, fell 4% to $51, reflecting the coordinated hit across memory names on an otherwise mixed trading day for the broader market.

SK Hynix’s ADRs specifically gave back an earlier Monday gain to trade down 6% to $145 at one point during the session, before extending losses further as the day progressed. New Chinese supply could eventually pressure DRAM and NAND pricing, which has expanded gross margins across the industry’s incumbents throughout 2026.

Apple Testing Chinese Chips Adds to Concerns

Adding weight to investor anxiety, reports emerged that a major U.S. technology company may already be evaluating the new Chinese supply. Apple is reportedly testing CXMT’s DRAM chips, adding to concerns that Chinese memory could reach top-tier customers sooner than bulls had previously assumed.

Analysts note that CXMT remains constrained by U.S. export controls on advanced chipmaking tools and is unlikely to ease the near-term memory shortage. Two political headwinds may also cap CXMT’s near-term reach: the company sits on the Pentagon’s list of firms with alleged military ties, and some U.S. lawmakers have signaled interest in restricting American purchases of its chips.

Profit-Taking After a Historic Run

Monday’s declines also reflect a broader pullback after an extraordinary rally across the memory sector this year. SanDisk stock had climbed 505% year-to-date heading into Monday, while Micron shares were up 223% and Western Digital had gained 202%, making all three ripe for profit-taking.

That rally had been fueled by genuine fundamental improvement across the sector. SanDisk posted fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion with non-GAAP earnings per share of $23.41 and a 78.4% gross margin, with the company’s chief executive calling it a “fundamental inflection point” for the business. Micron’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $25.11, and the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $50 billion.

Earnings Loom Large for SK Hynix

Monday’s selloff comes at a particularly sensitive moment for SK Hynix. The company’s second-quarter 2026 earnings report is due Tuesday after the U.S. market close, an event that could reset sentiment for the entire memory sector. SK Hynix’s Q2 2026 earnings were scheduled for release the day after Monday’s trading session, adding a layer of positioning-related volatility on top of the fresh competitive concerns stemming from the CXMT listing.

SK Hynix shares are considered particularly sensitive to swings because the U.S.-listed ADR trades at a premium to the Seoul-listed common stock, a structural feature that tends to amplify both rallies and pullbacks in the American shares.

A Volatile Month for the Stock

Monday’s drop is only the latest chapter in what has been an unusually turbulent stretch for SK Hynix since its Nasdaq debut earlier this month. SK Hynix shares tumbled more than 15% in a single session in Seoul after the chipmaker’s blockbuster Nasdaq debut, marking the stock’s largest one-day fall in history at the time, as investors booked profits following a blistering rally that preceded the listing. The company’s American depositary shares had also fallen 9.3% in a separate session earlier this month, underscoring growing investor concern that the broader memory rally had become overextended.

Bulls See a Buying Opportunity

Not all analysts view Monday’s pullback as the start of a deeper downturn. Research desks at Morgan Stanley and Mizuho have characterized the recent memory sector weakness as a buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a broader decline. South Korea also unveiled a $950 billion AI initiative package over the weekend involving Samsung, SK Group and U.S. technology partners, a development that could provide a longer-term tailwind for the sector.

With margins across the memory sector at record levels and share prices trading at multiples of their January levels, the setup for disappointment is considered asymmetric if new Chinese supply ramps faster than U.S. export controls can restrain it. Investors are being encouraged to watch for whether Monday’s selling stabilizes into the close and whether SK Hynix’s earnings commentary Tuesday on 2027 DRAM supply reinforces or challenges the competitive threat narrative introduced by CXMT’s debut.

With SK Hynix’s earnings due out just a day after Monday’s slide, investors across the memory sector are bracing for a report that could either calm fears sparked by the Chinese IPO or add further volatility to a stock that has already experienced some of the wildest swings of any major chipmaker since its U.S. listing debut earlier this summer.

Pre-provision operating profit for the private sector lender stood 48% higher at Rs 611 crore.

Its net interest margin for the quarter was at Rs 4.29%, up 45 basis points year-on-year. Net interest income rose 32% at Rs 765 crore.
The bank has a healthy asset quality with gross non-performing assets ratio being at 0.69%, improved 53 basis points year-on-year.
Its gross advances grew 27% year-on-year to Rs 57306 crore while deposits rose 20% to Rs 64409 crore at the end of June.

Shares of SAP SE jumped Monday morning, climbing 6.77% to $170.86 on the New York Stock Exchange, extending a powerful rebound that began late last week as the German software giant’s strong quarterly results and a newly activated stock buyback program continued to reshape investor sentiment.

The stock added $10.83 in early trading, building on a rally that has now stretched across multiple sessions and pulled shares sharply away from a 52-week low touched earlier this month.

Two Catalysts Converge

Monday’s gains were driven by a combination of factors working in tandem. SAP formally activated the second tranche of its €10 billion share buyback program at market open, while investors continued to reprice the stock higher following a strong set of second-quarter 2026 results released earlier in the week. The second tranche of the buyback, originally announced in January 2026, kicked off at its earliest possible purchase date, with SAP authorized to repurchase shares via Germany’s Xetra exchange at a total cost of up to €2.6 billion through January 2027.

A leadership insider purchase reported on July 25 added a further vote of confidence from within the company, while SAP ranked among the top gainers on Germany’s DAX 40 index, which was trading around 25,403 points during the session. A broadly positive tone across global equity markets, with U.S. indices also advancing, provided a constructive macro backdrop for European technology names.

A Blowout Cloud Quarter

The rally traces back to SAP’s second-quarter earnings report, which significantly exceeded the market’s cautious expectations heading into the print. The company posted a record current cloud backlog of €22.9 billion, up 27% year-over-year, while overall cloud revenue climbed 22% and its Cloud ERP Suite revenue rose 25%, pointing to accelerating momentum across its core cloud business.

Second-quarter earnings per share improved to €1.59 from €1.50 a year earlier, on revenue of €9.88 billion versus €9.03 billion in the prior-year period, with cloud backlog up 26% at constant currency, supported by the company’s Autonomous Enterprise and Business AI initiatives. Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 cloud revenue target of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion, though it trimmed non-IFRS profit guidance slightly to reflect dilution from the company’s Dremio and Prior Labs acquisitions, while still pointing to strong double-digit growth and higher free cash flow.

Wall Street Stays Bullish

Major brokerages largely maintained positive views on the stock following the results. BMO nudged its price target higher to $177, while TD Cowen and Barclays kept positive ratings on the stock with only minor target adjustments, signaling continued confidence in SAP’s cloud transition. Street price targets have ranged roughly from $175 to more than $205, with some analysts setting targets as high as $255, reflecting rising conviction in the company’s Autonomous Enterprise and AI product suite.

A Sharp Reversal From Recent Lows

The scale of the rebound stands out given how far the stock had fallen just days earlier. SAP shares had touched a 52-week low of €127.50 on July 23, their weakest level since November 2023, meaning the earnings release served as a direct and dramatic sentiment reversal. Ahead of the quarterly numbers, there had been significant anxiety on Wall Street that SAP could disappoint and send the stock lower still, but the figures came in better than feared, triggering a sharp recovery from the prior week’s lows.

Taken together, a deeply oversold stock, a cloud backlog beat that directly refuted investor skepticism about demand deceleration, and a reaffirmed revenue growth outlook combined to produce one of SAP’s sharpest single-session recoveries in recent memory, against a muted broader market backdrop that amplified the company-specific nature of the move.

Steady Institutional Buying

Trading patterns in the days following the earnings report suggested more than just short-term speculative buying. Intraday trading has shown steady bid support and tight price ranges, signaling controlled, institutional-style accumulation rather than speculative spikes. SAP’s stock has been in a firm uptrend since the earnings report, with the weekly chart showing a rebound from the mid-$140s back toward the $160 area, with afternoon trading sessions showing clustered, orderly buying typical of institutions adding to positions rather than day traders chasing momentum.

Balance Sheet Strength Backs the Rally

Beyond the headline growth figures, SAP’s underlying financial position has also supported investor confidence. The company holds roughly €8.22 billion in cash with a leverage ratio of 1.6, while a dividend yield of approximately 2% adds a modest income component without altering the stock’s overall growth profile. Cloud metrics remain a standout, with current cloud backlog up 27% to €22.9 billion and cloud revenue growth of 22% to 24%, materially outpacing most large-cap software and European technology peers.

What’s Ahead for SAP

Looking to the second half of 2026, SAP plans to focus on expanding cloud revenue, improving operating leverage, scaling AI-powered autonomous enterprise capabilities, and strengthening customer trust through governance and data sovereignty initiatives.

With shares now trading well above their July lows, investors will be watching closely to see whether SAP can sustain this rebound heading into the back half of the year, particularly as the company works to fully integrate its recent acquisitions and continues to scale its AI-driven cloud offerings against a competitive landscape that includes Oracle, Microsoft and other major enterprise software providers. The combination of a reaffirmed growth outlook, an active buyback program and continued institutional buying interest has, for now, given the stock enough momentum to reverse what had been one of its most difficult stretches in recent years.

James Picerno is the director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager that is the adviser to The Brinsmere Funds, a pair of global asset allocation ETFs. He also edits CapitalSpectator.com and The US Business Cycle Research Report (CapitalSpectator.com/premium-research). He is the author of three books, including “Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return.” Previously he was a financial journalist at Bloomberg and before that at Dow Jones.