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Nifty at 10-month low: Iran war, US Fed, crude oil among 9 factors likely to steer D-Street this week

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Nifty at 10-month low: Iran war, US Fed, crude oil among 9 factors likely to steer D-Street this week
The Nifty ended the week down 5.3% as the Iran–Israel war, a falling rupee, persistent FII outflows, and fuel supply worries weighed on domestic markets. When trading resumes on Monday, a series of key events scheduled for the week are likely to influence investor sentiment.

The 50-stock index slipped 488.05 points, or 2.06%, to close at 23,151.10.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index has moved further away from the 200-DMA as selling intensified. The RSI has entered the oversold zone and the trend remains weak, he added, expecting further downside with RSI languishing in deep oversold territory.

“In the short term, the trend may continue to remain weak, with any rise likely to be sold into. On the downside, the index may fall towards 23,000–22,800, while resistance is placed at 23,400,” De said.

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1.Iran-Isreal War

By the time global markets begin trading on Monday, the Iran–Israel war would have entered its 17th day. Markets are expected to remain jittery as long as the conflict continues.


With any signs of a truce between the warring sides appearing distant, AFP reported Iran vowing to inflict what its foreign ministry spokesman described as an “unforgettable lesson” on its enemies in the United States and Israel.
“We cannot accept that they talk about dialogue and ceasefire now and then and after that we face the repetition of these crimes and war. Our armed forces are very determined to firmly teach the enemy an unforgettable lesson,” AFP quoted Iranian diplomat Esmaeil Baqaei as saying.

2. Fed FOMC

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting will be closely watched this week amid concerns that the ongoing conflict could disrupt inflation dynamics if it drags on.

The rate-setting committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday, March 17, and announce its policy decision on Wednesday, March 18.

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The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady as US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The consumer price index rose 2.4% in February on a year-on-year basis, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

3. US markets

Domestic markets will also take cues from Wall Street. Major US indices ended lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 119.38 points, or 0.26%, to close at 46,558.50. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 206.62 points, or 0.93%, to 22,105.40, while the S&P 500 declined 0.61%, or about 40 points, to end at 6,632.19.

4.. Crude oil

All eyes will be on crude oil prices. Benchmark Brent and US WTI crude surged more than 3% in the previous session and could extend gains when trading resumes.

US WTI crude futures settled at $99.31 per barrel, rising $3.58 or 3.74%, while Brent crude climbed 3.43%, or $3.41, to close at $103.14 per barrel.

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5.. FII / DII action

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 10,716.64 crore on Friday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 9,977.42 crore.

FIIs have offloaded equities worth Rs 52,704 crore in the first fortnight of March, with Friday recording the highest single-day outflow of 2026. On a year-to-date basis, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold Indian equities worth Rs 66,051 crore.

6. Sector watch

The Iran–Israel/US conflict has been impacting several sectors. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) could come under pressure if crude prices rise further, as higher input costs may squeeze their margins. On the other hand, upstream explorers such as ONGC and Oil India could benefit from higher oil prices.

Paint and tyre companies, which use crude derivatives as raw materials, may also face pressure. Airline and tourism stocks are expected to react when markets reopen. With LPG shortages already affecting restaurants, further correction in quick-service restaurant (QSR) stocks cannot be ruled out.

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7. Technical triggers

Decoding the Nifty charts, Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, said the index has decisively breached its critical 23,800 support and is now trading at a fresh 10-month low, signalling a strong bearish grip.

For the coming week, the psychological 23,000 level will be crucial. A breakdown below this could drag the index towards 22,800 and even 22,500, he said.

“On the upside, 23,800 and 24,050 now act as stiff resistance levels. The strategy remains ‘sell on rise’ until the index decisively reclaims the 24,000 mark. Expect continued volatility as the market searches for a bottom amid escalating Middle East tensions,” he added.

8. Rupee vs dollar

The rupee’s movement against the US dollar will also be closely tracked.

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The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Friday amid concerns that the Iran war-driven surge in oil prices could disrupt India’s growth-inflation dynamics and dent capital flows. The rupee weakened to 92.4750 per dollar, surpassing its previous record low of 92.3575 hit on Thursday.

It eventually closed at 92.4550, down 0.7% for the week.

The benchmark Nifty 50 has slipped into correction territory since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, with the index falling about 2% on Friday.

Analysts told Reuters that a prolonged Middle East conflict could worsen the rupee’s outlook significantly, with persistently high energy prices potentially pushing the currency beyond 95 per dollar.

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9.IPO watch

Activity in the primary market is expected to remain strong, with three IPOs opening for subscription this week and three companies scheduled to list.

Mainboard IPOs of GSP Crop Science and Central Mine Planning and Design Institute (CMPDI) will be in focus.
Agrochemical manufacturer GSP Crop Science plans to raise Rs 400 crore through its public offering. The IPO will open on March 16 and close on March 18, with a price band of Rs 304–320 per share.

CMPDI, a consultancy arm of Coal India, will open its IPO on March 20 and close on March 24. The grey market premium (GMP) is currently around Rs 24.

Meanwhile, the SME IPO of Novus Loyalty will open on March 17 and close on March 20. The price band has been set at Rs 139–146 per share, and the company aims to raise about Rs 60.15 crore.

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Stocks of Rajputana Stainless, Apsis Aerocom and Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust are also scheduled to list on the exchanges this week.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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Aussies Turn to Creative Hacks as Soaring Fuel Prices Hit Easter Travel Plans Hard

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Commonwealth Bank Leads by Assets and Market Cap

SYDNEY — With petrol prices climbing above A$2.50 a litre and diesel nearing A$3 in parts of the country, many Australians are scrambling for inventive ways to cut costs or even cancel long-planned Easter getaways as the four-day long weekend approaches.

SYDNEY
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The fuel crisis, triggered by disruptions in global oil supplies following conflict in the Middle East, has forced families and holidaymakers to rethink traditional road trips, flights and regional escapes that usually define the Easter break. Data from consumer group Finder shows that the 56 per cent of Australians planning to spend on Easter activities this year expect to outlay an average of A$2,019 — up sharply from A$1,556 the previous year — with travel accounting for the bulk of the increase.

More than 40 per cent of Australians have already altered or cancelled Easter travel plans, according to late March figures from the Tourism and Transport Forum. Regional tourism operators report a surge in cancellations, leaving smaller hotels and motels bracing for one of their toughest periods in years despite pleas for visitors to support local economies.

The Easter long weekend, running from Good Friday on April 3 to Easter Monday on April 6 in 2026, traditionally sees millions hit the roads or skies. Last year more than 4.5 million people took overnight trips, with the vast majority driving. This year, the combination of elevated fuel costs and lingering jet fuel surcharges has upended those routines.

For many, the classic Aussie road trip — loading the car with family, esky and camping gear — has become prohibitively expensive. A 500-kilometre journey in a conventional petrol vehicle can now cost a family around A$140 in fuel alone, compared with roughly A$15 for the same distance in an electric vehicle, according to charging network data. Some drivers are switching to EVs where possible or seeking cheaper alternatives.

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Creative cost-cutting strategies are proliferating. Families are packing kitchenettes and coffee machines for self-catering in cabins or holiday parks rather than eating out. One Sydney parent described skipping surfing lessons for the children and instead using old bodyboards, while preparing most meals at the accommodation to avoid cafe prices that can reach A$7 for a basic flat white.

Others are turning to slower, cheaper transport. Overnight trains from Sydney to Melbourne or Brisbane have gained popularity for their affordability and novelty, with some fares significantly lower than equivalent flights or long drives. In Queensland, TransLink’s 50-cent capped fares across large parts of the network have become a viral budget hack, allowing day trips or short hops at a fraction of usual costs.

Rail services between major cities, such as Adelaide to Melbourne for around A$150, offer a fuel-free option that some travellers say feels more relaxing than battling holiday traffic. Budget airline sales, including Jetstar’s “life’s a beach” promotions with fares from A$49 to destinations like the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, have also drawn interest despite higher base airfares on many routes.

Staycations have emerged as a popular fallback. Australians are rediscovering attractions in their own cities or nearby suburbs — free museums, galleries, parks and beaches — rather than venturing far. Financial planning experts recommend old-fashioned family activities such as picnics with egg-and-spoon races or three-legged races in local parks, which cost nothing but create lasting memories.

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Car camping, hipcamping on private rural properties, and shorter drives to closer destinations help minimise fuel use. Some caravan owners are arranging delivery of their rigs directly to campsites to avoid towing heavy loads that guzzle diesel. Others advise driving at 90-100 km/h instead of 110 km/h to improve efficiency by 15-20 per cent on long stretches.

The government has responded by halving the fuel excise tax to 26.3 cents a litre, providing some relief at the pump, though prices remain elevated compared with early 2025 levels. Localised shortages have added anxiety, prompting some to stock up or adjust routes to hit cheaper stations identified through mapping apps and artificial intelligence tools.

Regional tourism bodies are urging Australians to support smaller towns and businesses hit hard by the downturn. Accommodation providers in areas reliant on Easter visitors warn that a quiet long weekend could compound challenges heading into winter. Some operators have introduced flexible packages or discounts to entice cautious travellers.

Travel experts note that while international trips face additional pressures from global uncertainty, many Australians are choosing to explore closer to home as a way to balance budgets and reduce environmental impact. Destinations such as Melbourne’s cultural offerings, the Kimberley region for those who can manage costs, or simple coastal drives within a few hours of major cities remain on shortened itineraries.

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Families with children during the school holidays are particularly inventive. Free or low-cost activities — hiking trails, bike packing, backyard camp-outs with blanket forts or marshmallow roasts — replace paid experiences. Some parents pack special-occasion treats at home rather than buying them on the road.

The broader cost-of-living pressures amplify the challenge. Housing costs, groceries and everyday expenses have left less discretionary income for holidays, even as travel ranks high on many savings priority lists for 2026. Surveys show nearly half of Australians place holidays among their top two financial goals, yet execution proves difficult when unexpected spikes hit.

Aged care worker Claire Harvey from Melbourne plans an EV drive to Adelaide that will cost under A$75 each way — a stark contrast to the A$183 she would have paid in her previous petrol car. Others have cancelled altogether, weighing cancellation fees against projected fuel bills that could exceed A$2,000 for longer trips.

Tourism operators acknowledge the difficult environment but highlight opportunities to “rediscover Australia” through slower, more mindful travel. Shorter stays closer to home, combined with free public facilities and outdoor spaces, can still deliver quality family time without breaking the bank.

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As the long weekend nears, travel comparison sites and apps report heightened searches for budget hacks, fuel-efficient routes and alternative transport. Community forums buzz with shared tips — from splitting costs in group travel to using public transport networks creatively.

Economists and academics urge a balanced approach: prioritise connection and enjoyment over lavish spending. Simple pleasures like shared picnics or local exploration often create stronger memories than expensive add-ons.

The situation remains fluid. Further government measures on fuel supply or additional airline promotions could ease pressures, but for now many Australians are adapting with resilience and creativity. Whether opting for a train journey, a nearby staycation or a carefully planned shorter road trip in an efficient vehicle, holidaymakers are determined not to let rising costs entirely derail the spirit of Easter.

The long weekend will test the adaptability of Australian travellers and the tourism sector alike. While some destinations may see quieter roads and fewer visitors, those who venture out — armed with packed lunches, slower speeds and local knowledge — may find unexpected rewards in more affordable, intimate experiences.

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For families facing tight budgets, the message from experts is clear: creativity and flexibility can salvage the holiday without sacrificing joy. As one parent summarised, luxuries don’t make memories — shared time and simple adventures do.

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While the Middle East burns, China quietly executes sweeping political purge

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While the Middle East burns, China quietly executes sweeping political purge

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ISS recommends vote against BP board’s move to scrap some climate reporting

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ISS recommends vote against BP board’s move to scrap some climate reporting


ISS recommends vote against BP board’s move to scrap some climate reporting

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Downed planes spell new peril for Trump as Tehran hunts missing US pilot

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Downed planes spell new peril for Trump as Tehran hunts missing US pilot


Downed planes spell new peril for Trump as Tehran hunts missing US pilot

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Smallcap Stars: 10 stocks rally up to 72% despite 11% Nifty crash in March. Do you own any?

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The Economic Times

Despite an 11% fall in the Nifty during March amid global tensions and rising crude prices, select smallcap stocks delivered strong gains of up to 72%. The list highlights standout performers across sectors that defied the broader market downturn, showcasing resilience and stock-specific momentum in a volatile environment.

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Bitcoin holds near $67K as crypto markets stay muted; volatility seen rising ahead

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Bitcoin holds near $67K as crypto markets stay muted; volatility seen rising ahead
Bitcoin is holding near the $67,000 mark after two consecutive days of losses as broader risk assets remain under pressure amid rising concerns about a potential escalation in the conflict involving Iran. The cryptocurrency was trading at $66,871 mark.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rose 0.34%, while Ethereum fell 0.18% to trade at the $2,050 level. Among the major altcoins, BNB, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, and Cardano gained up to 1.07%, while XRP slipped 0.32%. The global crypto market capitalisation went up 0.36% to $2.31 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Also Read | SIP or lumpsum? Expert suggests best approach for first-time mutual fund investors with Rs 10,000

Piyush Walke, Derivatives Research Analyst, Delta Exchange, said Crypto markets were subdued on Friday, with no major price movements. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum traded largely sideways, while implied volatilities continued to bottom out. Such conditions are often followed by a period of heightened volatility ahead.

From a technical perspective, sellers would need to push prices below $65K to open the door for a deeper decline toward $60K. On the upside, any meaningful recovery would require a move above $69K, reclaiming the 50-day SMA and breaking back into the lower band of the rising channel, Walke added.

In the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum went up 1.01% and 3.15%, respectively. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid slipped up to 6.68%, whereas Tron, Dogecoin and Cardano gained up to 1.78%.
WazirX Market’s Desk said the crypto market remained stable this week with reduced volatility and improving sentiment. Bitcoin traded within the $66,000–$67,000 range, holding key levels despite earlier macro pressure. Ethereum’s performance over the week was impressive, gaining around 3.7%, supported by continued ecosystem activity and capital rotation.
Institutional signals turned constructive. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first inflows since October as prices stabilised, indicating renewed demand, WazirX Market’s Desk further said.
According to Binance Weekly Market Research, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Global Easing Breadth Index (GCBI) has turned negative post-ETF (2024–2026), signalling growing maturity as the market prices macro trends ahead rather than reacts to them.

“We think this reflects a shift in marginal price-setting from retail to institutions after ETFs. Since assets are priced by the marginal buyer, and institutions process macro information earlier (often 6–12 months ahead of policy moves), positioning can lead the rate cycle rather than lag it.”

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Also Read | Which mutual fund should you add for 15 year SIPs? Expert breaks down multicap vs factor funds

As a result, BTC may have evolved from a macro “lagging receiver” to a “leading pricer.” A peak in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-native drivers—such as policy progress and institutional flows—could matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself, the report further said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle

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Intrepid Potash: Iran-Driven Rally Looks Temporary (Rating Downgrade)

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Intrepid Potash: Iran-Driven Rally Looks Temporary (Rating Downgrade)

Intrepid Potash: Iran-Driven Rally Looks Temporary (Rating Downgrade)

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India makes first Iranian oil buy in seven years with no payment problems

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India makes first Iranian oil buy in seven years with no payment problems


India makes first Iranian oil buy in seven years with no payment problems

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Oil Sets The Price, Crypto Waits For The Signal

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Oil Sets The Price, Crypto Waits For The Signal

Oil Sets The Price, Crypto Waits For The Signal

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Midcap mayhem! 10 stocks that plunged up to 29% in March. How many do you own?

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The Economic Times

Midcap stocks saw sharp declines in March as rising crude prices, geopolitical tensions and continued FII outflows dragged markets lower, with the Nifty falling over 11%. This list highlights 10 worst-performing midcaps, with losses of up to 29%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure across sectors during a volatile period.

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