Nifty weekly outlook: Nifty trapped in 23,900-24,750 range; fresh buying should remain selective

Nifty spent the week consolidating in a narrow range and ended on a negative note, with its broader technical structure remaining largely unchanged. The index oscillated within a 302-point range between 24,076.85 and 24,378.60, reflecting the continued absence of a clear directional trigger. Volatility eased further, with India VIX declining 4.64% to 10.68, keeping volatility expectations subdued.

Nifty eventually closed at 24,175.65, registering a mild weekly loss of 76.35 points (-0.31%). The index continues to consolidate within its established range, with the 23,900–24,000 zone remaining an important support area. On the upside, a significant cluster of moving averages continues to restrict meaningful gains.

Nifty is currently caught between these support and resistance zones, and unless either boundary is decisively breached, the index is likely to remain rangebound. A sustained move below 23,900 could invite incremental weakness, while a convincing move above the cluster of major moving averages in the 24,400–24,750 region would be required for the index to regain directional strength.

The coming week is likely to see a quiet to cautiously positive start, although the broader trading range may continue to dominate price action. Immediate resistance is expected at 24,330 and 24,500, while supports are likely at 24,000 and 23,900.

The weekly RSI stands at 49.11, remaining neutral and showing no meaningful bullish or bearish divergence against price. The weekly MACD remains below the zero line but above its signal line, while the positive histogram indicates that downside momentum has moderated. The latest weekly candle has a relatively small bearish body but does not indicate indecision. Pattern analysis also continues to point to an extended consolidation.

Nifty remains below a key long-term moving-average cluster, with the 100-week MA at 24,428, the 200-DMA at 24,652 and the 50-week MA at 24,729. Their proximity creates a formidable 24,400–24,750 resistance zone, making this area crucial for any sustainable breakout. On the downside, the 23,900–24,000 zone continues to provide an important floor. Until either side is decisively breached, the existing range should be respected.
Given this setup, aggressive directional exposure may not be rewarding while Nifty remains trapped within its defined boundaries. Fresh buying should remain selective and stock-specific, particularly as the index approaches the overhead moving-average cluster, while existing gains should be protected at higher levels. Conversely, short positions should not be chased while the 23,900–24,000 support zone remains intact.The preferred approach for the coming week is therefore to remain selective, keep position sizes measured and wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before adopting a stronger directional view.

In our Relative Rotation Graphs® analysis, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (Nifty 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free-float market capitalisation of all listed stocks.

The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows that the Nifty Media, Auto and Realty indices are in the leading quadrant. These sectors may relatively outperform the broader benchmark, the Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Pharma Index is in the weakening quadrant but is showing an improvement in relative momentum. The Midcap 100 Index is also in the weakening quadrant and may see some continued slowdown in its relative performance.

The Nifty Infrastructure and Energy indices remain in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and PSE indices are also in the lagging quadrant but are showing a sharp improvement in relative momentum against their benchmark.

The Nifty Financial Services, Nifty Bank, IT, Services Sector and PSU Bank indices are in the improving quadrant. Among these, the IT Index is showing strong rotation and is likely to continue doing so.

(Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above chart, they show relative performance against the Nifty 500 Index (broader markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.)