NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Trades Near $5.30 Amid Record Battery Swaps, Profit Turnaround Signals

NIO Inc.’s stock has shown modest gains in late February 2026, hovering around $5.30 after a volatile period, as the Chinese electric vehicle maker highlighted record battery-swap activity during the Lunar New Year holiday and reiterated expectations for its first adjusted quarterly operating profit in Q4 2025.

As of February 24, 2026, NIO (NYSE: NIO) closed at $5.30, up 0.19% on the day with volume of about 35 million shares. The shares have climbed roughly 8-11% over the past month but remain down significantly year-to-date and from 2025 peaks near $8. The 52-week range spans a low of $3.02 to a high of $8.02, reflecting ongoing pressures in the competitive EV sector amid subsidy phase-outs, pricing wars, and macroeconomic headwinds in China.

The recent uptick stems from operational highlights during the Spring Festival travel rush (Feb. 15-23, 2026). NIO reported completing 1 million battery swaps in less than a week—a new milestone—surpassing 100 million cumulative swaps overall. Daily records peaked at 177,627 on one day, marking the sixth single-day high in February alone. The feat underscores the scale of NIO’s proprietary battery-swap network, which now supports subscription-based models and differentiates it from pure charging competitors.

CEO William Li emphasized plans to add 1,000 new swap stations in 2026 while accelerating fifth-generation station construction. Management views the power business as a path to profitability, with the network driving recurring service revenue and customer loyalty amid high holiday travel demand.

Financial momentum builds on a February 5, 2026, profit alert. NIO projected adjusted operating profit (non-GAAP, excluding share-based compensation) of RMB 700 million to RMB 1.2 billion (about $100 million to $172 million) for Q4 2025—the company’s first quarterly adjusted profit. GAAP operating profit is expected at RMB 200 million to RMB 700 million ($29 million to $100 million). This contrasts sharply with a RMB 5.54 billion adjusted loss in Q4 2024.

The preliminary guidance reflects improved gross margins from cost controls, higher deliveries, and contributions from sub-brands Onvo and Firefly. January 2026 deliveries surged 96.1% year-over-year, though full Q4 2025 figures await final results. Management targets full-year breakeven in 2026, supported by new large SUVs launching across brands.

Product momentum includes upcoming SUV launches. The flagship ES9 (premium brand) and Onvo L80 are set for official unveilings around April-May 2026, with deliveries starting in May-June. The ES9 incorporates ET9 sedan technology in SUV form to compete in the luxury segment, while the L80 slots between Onvo’s L60 and L90 to broaden market reach. A dedicated product showcase is planned around April 10, coinciding with the Beijing Auto Show for Onvo.

Despite positives, challenges persist. Intense competition from BYD, Tesla, and domestic rivals has compressed margins, with government subsidy reductions impacting certain models. NIO’s cash burn and capital needs remain concerns, though the profit alert has eased some fears.

Analyst views are mixed but lean cautious. Consensus among 9-14 firms rates NIO a Hold, with average 12-month price targets ranging from $6.05 to $6.83—implying 14-29% upside from current levels. High targets reach $8.50-$9.01, low ends around $4.00. Firms like Morgan Stanley maintain Overweight ratings citing growth potential, while others note execution risks and volume guidance adjustments.

The next catalyst arrives around March 19-20, 2026, with Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings. Investors will scrutinize audited results, margin trends, delivery updates, and refined 2026 guidance. Strong execution on profitability and new model ramps could fuel further gains; shortfalls might renew downside pressure.

NIO navigates a pivotal phase in China’s EV landscape. Its battery-swap ecosystem, premium branding, and multi-brand strategy position it for differentiation, while the profit milestone signals maturing operations. As the sector consolidates, NIO’s ability to sustain momentum amid pricing and demand challenges will determine whether recent stability evolves into sustained recovery.