No let up in war & rhetoric, a break of 22,900 can take Nifty to 22,500

Fresh threats from Iran and a hardening stance by US President Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz have deepened investor nervousness, keeping markets on edge. Analysts said Nifty is likely to remain volatile, with the index holding key support around 22,900 but facing the risk of a decline towards 22,500 if tensions intensify. While the benchmark ended about half a percent higher at 23,114 on Friday after a sharp 3.3% drop the previous day, the near-term outlook remains fragile, with upside seen capped in the 23,400–24,200 range.

TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL

Where is Nifty headed this week?
The market is at an inflection point. Technically, the index found strong support near the 22,930 mark last week, where it filled an unaddressed gap from the previous year. This zone coincides with the formation of a double-bottom pattern, indicating a potential base formation. The near-term bias appears cautiously positive. Nifty is likely to gravitate towards the 24,050–24,200 zone during the week, provided global cues remain stable. However, 22,900 remains a critical support level. A decisive close below this level would negate the bullish structure and trigger a sharper downside move towards 22,222. Trading Strategy: Recommend a Bull Call spread to position for a near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,300 Call and selling the 23,800 Call of March 31 expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well suited for a moderately bullish view amid improving technical setup.

TOP STOCK BETS

NMDC: CMP Rs 79.7 | Stop loss Rs 77.5 | Target Rs 84–89
Showing relative strength in a weak market, the stock is holding above its 20-week moving average, signalling a bullish bias with scope for fresh longs.

Power Grid Corporation: CMP Rs 297.6 | Stop loss Rs 290 | Target Rs 314–319
Decisively moved above its 200- DMA after nearly a year, signalling a potential trend reversal and renewed strength, with the setup favouring fresh long positions.
SUDEEP SHAH
VICE PRESIDENT & HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Technically, the trend remains weak, with Nifty trading below key averages and RSI near oversold levels. Three successive rebounds were swiftly sold into, underscoring bearish dominance. Going ahead, 22,850–22,800 zone will act as immediate support. A sustained breach below this level could accelerate the decline towards 22,500. On the upside, 23,420–23,460 zone is likely to act as stiff resistance, with any pullback expected to face selling pressure.

Trading Strategy: The recommended Nifty options strategy for the March 24 expiry is a Put Spread, suited for a moderately bearish outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 23,100 strike Puts at a premium of Rs 210–215 and sells one lot of the 22,900 strike Puts at Rs 138–142.

This strategy limits both risk and reward. The breakeven point is 23,030. The maximum loss is Rs 4,500 if Nifty does not fall below 23,030, while the maximum profit is Rs 8,500 if Nifty closes at 22,900 or below on expiry.

TOP STOCK BETS
JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals: CMP Rs 2,138 | Stop loss Rs 2,030 | Target Rs 2,260–2,280

In a steady uptrend, the stock is trading above key moving averages, with higher highs and higher lows signalling strengthening momentum.

Coal India: CMP Rs 468 | Stop loss Rs 447 | Target Rs 500–515

Trading near its 52-week high, the stock shows sustained strength and outperformance, with higher lows reinforcing a bullish trend.

NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
The underlying trend of Nifty remains weak. The lack of strength in the upside bounce signals a possible breakdown of 22,900 support soon. On a breakdown, the next lower target is seen at 22,500. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,400.

Trading Strategy: The underlying trend remains weak. One may look to sell Nifty April futures and also sell on rises around 23,500 levels. Traders may also consider buying the 22,500 PE of April 7 expiry around Rs 260–230 for a potential downside towards 22,500. Short positions should be placed with a strict stop loss at Nifty spot 23,400.

TOP STOCKS BETS
West Coast Paper Mills: Buy at Rs 433| Stop loss Rs 414 | Target Rs 467 |

Timeframe: 1 Week After a recent sharp upmove, the stock shows a bullish breakout pattern with rising volumes and strengthening RSI signalling positive momentum.

Varun Beverages: Sell at Rs 401.5 | CMP Rs 401.8 | Stop loss Rs 417 | Target Rs 375 |

Timeframe: 1 week In a down-trend with lower tops and bottoms, the stock has resumed its decline after forming a lower top at Rs 418, with weak volume and RSI signalling continued downside.