Oil Futures Settle Lower Awaiting U.S.-Iran Moves

1502 ET – Crude futures settle lower as the market looks to Thursday’s talks between the U.S. and Iran. Estimates of the risk premium baked into the price go anywhere from $4 to $10 a barrel, Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. “I would argue that it’s fairly subdued,” with President Trump’s record of trying to do the least damage to oil facilities and the market, he says, citing last year’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and this year’s ouster of Venezuela’s leader. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could create “real supply headaches,” but “there’s still talks in Geneva and while it’s unlikely that the tensions will go away any sign of a peace deal could see an evaporation of $7 to $10 in oil very quickly.” WTI and Brent fall 1% to $65.63 and $70.77 a barrel, respectively.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil Retreats With U.S.-Iran Tensions As Key Driver

1555 GMT – Oil prices retreat as traders assess risks to supply in the Middle East ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. In afternoon trading, Brent crude slips 0.4% to $70.85 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.5% to $65.50 a barrel after rising earlier in the session. “Most of the recent price increase is due to a widening risk premium,” analysts at Commerzbank say. “The price is thus well above the fair price of oil, which could be explained by fundamental factors alone.” On Friday, a barrel deliverable in one month cost $3.50 more than oil scheduled for delivery in seven months. Compared with 12-month delivery, the premium widened to more than $5. “The last time the time spreads were higher was in June 2025, when the 12-day war between Israel and Iran took place,” the analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)