Oil Price Today (April 17): Crude oil prices fall on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Iran war peace talks. Is the worst over?

Oil prices edged lower on Friday as hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East eased investor fears. The decline follows a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel coming into effect, along with remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that Washington and Iran could hold talks over the weekend.

Addressing a major hurdle in efforts to end the Iran conflict, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz for seven weeks and disrupted about one-fifth of global oil supply, Trump said Tehran had proposed not pursuing nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. “We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.

Crude oil price on April 17

Brent crude futures dropped $1.34, or 1.35%, to $98.05 a barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.65, or 1.74%, to $93.40 a barrel, giving up some of the gains seen in the previous session. Oil prices had surged 50% in March during a record rally and only recently slipped below the $100 per barrel mark. However, they have largely held in the $90 range this week.Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have remained a key stumbling block in securing a broader peace agreement that Trump is seeking to end the Iran war, which he initiated alongside Israel in late February.
Adding to the downward pressure on prices is the 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon. During an earlier two-week ceasefire, Iran had insisted that Lebanon be included in any agreement, while hostilities between Israel and Lebanon continued.

The latest ceasefire took effect at midnight on Friday in Lebanon, pausing clashes between Israeli forces and the militant group Hezbollah. This development removes a significant obstacle to ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Officials from both Israel and Lebanon confirmed their participation in the truce, which Trump announced after a diplomatic push by the U.S. government last night. Still, experts suggest that WTI prices are likely to remain volatile within the $80 to $100 range until a formal agreement is reached and normal navigation resumes.

Brokerage firm Macquarie noted that even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move toward $110 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise. It added that if disruptions extend through April, Brent could still rise to $150 per barrel.

Market experts believe crude may be entering a structurally higher price phase. The current ceasefire is temporary and a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 could take several months. Analysts warn that in the near term, he expects crude to remain within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

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