Oil Price Today (May 11): Crude oil back above $100 on no breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. What are experts saying?

Expectations of a near-term resolution to the 10-week-long U.S.-Iran conflict faded after US President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal, calling it “unacceptable”.

Crude oil price on May 11

Brent crude futures gained $3.18, or 3.14%, to $104.47 a barrel by 2336 GMT, building on Friday’s 1.23% rise. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $3.09, or 3.24%, to $98.51 a barrel after settling 0.64% higher in the previous session.The prolonged conflict has caused extensive damage across Iran and Lebanon, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed global energy prices sharply higher.

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Iran’s response, released through state television on Sunday, focused on ending the conflict across all fronts, particularly in Lebanon, while also addressing the safety of shipping routes through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Within hours of the proposal becoming public, Trump dismissed it in a social media post.
Trump is due to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to discuss Iran among other issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported citing US officials.
Market attention now shifts squarely to President Trump’s visit to China this week. Experts say there is hope he can persuade Beijing to leverage its influence over Iran to push for a comprehensive ceasefire and a resolution to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday that the world has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil supply over the past two months, adding that energy markets would take time to stabilise even if flows resume.

According to Iranian state media, Tehran’s proposal includes demands for compensation for war-related damages and a reaffirmation of Iranian sovereignty over the strait. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran also called on the United States to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove restrictions on Iranian oil sales.

The U.S. proposal had suggested ending hostilities first before moving to negotiations on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Despite a month-old ceasefire and nearly 48 hours of relative calm, hostile drones were detected over several Gulf nations on Sunday, underlining the continuing risks facing the region.

Analysts said the market remains on edge. Haitong Futures noted that the ceasefire may only be temporary, adding that stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran could spark renewed escalation and drive oil prices even higher.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude flows. Under such a scenario, oil prices could potentially surge to between $110 and $150 per barrel.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)