Crude oil prices jumped sharply on February 28, 2026, extending recent gains as joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran triggered immediate market concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled around $72.87 per barrel on February 27 trading — up 2.87% — with early Asian session indications pointing to further upside on Monday amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, closed at $67.02 per barrel, gaining 2.78% in the prior session. Analysts expect opening prices on February 28 to reflect heightened risk premiums, with some forecasting Brent testing $75 or higher if escalation fears intensify. The surge builds on a 6-8% monthly rise in February, driven by trader anticipation of conflict and a “war premium” baked into futures.

The price movement stems directly from U.S. and Israeli “major combat operations” targeting Iranian leadership, missile sites and nuclear facilities early Saturday. President Donald Trump confirmed the strikes in a video statement, vowing to eliminate threats from Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Israel described the action as pre-emptive to neutralize existential dangers. Iran responded with ballistic missile barrages at Israel and U.S. bases in Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global seaborne oil passes — has emerged as a focal point. Analysts warn that even a brief blockade or heightened naval activity by Iran could send prices soaring. Kpler senior crude analyst Muyu Xu estimated a one-day disruption could push oil to $120-$150 per barrel. Barclays projected Brent reaching $80 in scenarios of material supply interruption, while longer conflicts risk $100 or more.

OPEC+ delegates signaled readiness to adjust output, with some members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE already raising exports preemptively. A Reuters poll indicated possible larger-than-planned April increases to offset potential shortfalls. Despite oversupply concerns earlier in the year, geopolitical risks have dominated sentiment, lifting prices about 19-20% year-to-date in 2026.

Market reactions reflect broader volatility. Global equities opened lower in Asia, gold rallied as a safe-haven asset, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Airlines and energy-intensive sectors braced for higher fuel costs, with some carriers already adjusting routes amid regional airspace closures.

The conflict’s energy implications stem from Iran’s role as a key producer and exporter, though its output remains constrained by sanctions. Disruption fears center on the Strait, where tankers carry crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait and Iran itself. Historical precedents — like the 2019 tanker attacks — show how quickly risk premiums build.

Experts diverge on duration and severity. If strikes remain limited and retaliation contained, the spike could prove short-lived, similar to June 2025’s brief rally after prior Israel-Iran exchanges. Prolonged engagement or regime-change efforts, however, could sustain elevated prices and pressure global inflation.

J.P. Morgan Global Research maintains a bearish long-term view, forecasting Brent averaging around $60 in 2026 absent major disruptions, citing soft fundamentals. Yet near-term forecasts have risen $1.50 per barrel in recent polls due to tensions.

OPEC+ meets Sunday to discuss output, with sources indicating flexibility for larger hikes if needed. The group has paused recent increases amid rising prices, but conflict dynamics could shift priorities.

Consumers face immediate ripple effects at the pump, with gasoline and diesel likely climbing in coming weeks. Refiners and traders monitor shipping insurance rates and tanker tracking data for signs of rerouting or delays.

As the situation evolves, oil markets remain on edge. The coming sessions will test whether prices stabilize on de-escalation signals or climb further if supply threats materialize. For now, the risk premium dominates, underscoring energy’s vulnerability to Middle East flashpoints.