Oracle (ORCL) Stock Rebounds to $147.89 on Analyst Upgrade, AI Cloud Momentum Offsets Recent Sell-Off Concerns

Oracle Corporation’s stock rebounded 1.20% to close at $147.89 on February 25, 2026, snapping a recent pullback as analysts highlighted the company’s undervaluation following a sharp sell-off, with Oppenheimer upgrading the shares to Outperform and setting a $185 price target amid ongoing optimism about Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s role in AI workloads.

As of February 25, 2026, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) traded in a session range of $147.34 to $153.28 with volume of approximately 26.5 million shares. The shares have declined about 25% year-to-date in 2026 from earlier peaks near $200+, reflecting investor concerns over slowing cloud revenue growth, elevated capital expenditures, and debt levels tied to aggressive AI data center buildout. Market capitalization stands around $410-420 billion.

The February 25 gain followed Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz’s upgrade from Perform to Outperform, citing an attractive valuation after the recent decline and viewing easing risks around OpenAI partnerships and continued hyperscaler cloud spending as long-term catalysts. Schwartz’s $185 target implies about 25% upside from recent levels. Other firms, including Bernstein SocGen Group, trimmed targets earlier in February but maintained Outperform ratings, underscoring mixed but generally constructive sentiment.

The upgrade arrives ahead of Oracle’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings, expected in early March 2026 (likely March 9-10). Analysts project EPS around $1.36-$1.56 and revenue near $16 billion, reflecting continued growth in cloud services despite earlier Q2 results that fell slightly short of expectations. In fiscal Q2 2026 (ended November 30, 2025), reported December 10, 2025, Oracle delivered total revenue of $16.1 billion, up 14% year-over-year (13% in constant currency), with cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) surging 34% to $8.0 billion. Remaining performance obligations reached a record $523 billion, up 438% in USD, driven by long-term commitments from major clients including Meta Platforms and NVIDIA.

Oracle’s AI push has centered on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), positioned as a premier platform for high-performance computing and generative AI workloads. The company has aggressively expanded data center capacity, with projected fiscal 2026 capital expenditures soaring to $50 billion—a $15 billion increase from September 2025 guidance. Partnerships with NVIDIA and others underscore OCI’s growing traction in AI training and inference, though some observers note risks from heavy spending, negative free cash flow exceeding $10 billion in recent periods, and off-balance-sheet lease obligations approaching $248 billion.

Despite near-term pressures, analysts view Oracle’s trajectory positively. The company’s enterprise software dominance, combined with cloud acceleration and AI tailwinds, supports projections for fiscal 2026 revenue growth in the mid-teens and continued margin expansion. Consensus among covering firms leans toward Buy, with average 12-month price targets around $180-$200, implying substantial upside from current levels.

Oracle’s strategic focus includes embedding AI across products, with leadership emphasizing agility in response to rapid AI technology changes. Recent contracts, such as an $88 million OCI deal with the U.S. Department of the Air Force, reinforce its positioning in secure, mission-critical workloads. The company also benefits from its database and applications heritage, providing a stable foundation amid the shift to cloud and AI services.

Challenges persist, including competitive intensity from AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, as well as concerns over capital intensity and debt management. Some reports highlight potential margin erosion if revenue growth slows relative to spending, though Oracle’s RPO backlog offers strong visibility into future revenue.

The upcoming Q3 report will provide critical insights into cloud revenue trends, AI adoption, capex execution, and any refinements to full-year guidance. Positive commentary on OCI momentum and AI pipeline could sustain the rebound; signs of prolonged spending pressures might renew caution.

Oracle Corporation, a leader in enterprise software and cloud services, navigates a pivotal phase with its AI and cloud investments positioning it for long-term growth. Recent sell-off concerns appear to have created an entry point for some analysts, who see the stock as undervalued relative to its potential in the AI infrastructure boom. As fiscal 2026 progresses, Oracle’s ability to convert massive backlog and spending into profitable expansion will determine whether the current rebound marks a turning point or a temporary pause.