Polycab shares jump 6% as post-earnings target prices go up to Rs 10,500. Should you buy now?

Polycab India shares surged 6% to Rs 8,938.70 on BSE on Thursday morning after the wires and cables maker delivered a quarter that beat street estimates on nearly every metric, prompting a flurry of target price upgrades from brokerages, with Citi setting the highest bar at Rs 10,500.

The rally follows Polycab’s Q4 consolidated revenue rising 27% year-on-year (YoY), while EBITDA grew 13% YoY. The numbers impressed analysts as they came despite geopolitical disruptions, a March demand slowdown, and channel destocking amid raw material volatility.

Citi, the most bullish on the Street, raised its target price from Rs 9,500 to Rs 10,500 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing execution quality as the key differentiator. “Market share gains reflect execution and scale advantage,” the brokerage said, adding that Polycab passed on the entire impact of raw material costs by the first fortnight of January, with no inventory gains due to hedging.

Polycab’s share of the organised cables and wires market has risen to 30–31%, marking a gain of 300–400 basis points year-on-year, a trend Jefferies highlighted while naming the company its top pick. “Organised market share rose to 30–31%, up 400 bps YoY, as C&W volume grew 18% in FY26,” Jefferies said, raising its target price to Rs 9,770 from Rs 8,950 and projecting a FY26–29 EPS CAGR of 21%. The brokerage described the stock as “a play on power and housing.”

Motilal Oswal raised its target price to Rs 9,800 from Rs 9,350, estimating revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of 19% and PAT growth of around 18% over FY26-28. The brokerage expects operating margins to remain in the 13.5-14% range. It also estimates the company’s net cash balance will rise to Rs 47.8 billion by FY28 from Rs 41.5 billion in FY26, underscoring the financial strength supporting the growth story.

Nuvama raised FY27/28 EPS estimates by 3-5% to reflect the beat, projecting revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 18%, 17%, and 17%, respectively, over FY26-29. The brokerage lifted its target to Rs 9,740 from Rs 9,420, valuing the stock at 40x March 2028 estimated EPS. At the current market price, Polycab trades at 34.5x FY28 estimated EPS.
JM Financial, raising its target to Rs 9,700 from Rs 9,200 at 42x March 2028 EPS, flagged cables and wires capacity utilisation at mid-70s as providing reasonable certainty of meeting any unanticipated demand pickup, effectively a buffer the market is not fully pricing in.Beyond cables and wires, the FMEG segment is emerging as a meaningful second engine. Elara Capital, which maintained Accumulate with a target of Rs 8,920, noted that FMEG surged 39% YoY, driven by solar products, and turned EBIT positive in FY26 for the first time. The segment’s turnaround removes a long-standing drag on overall profitability.

Looking further out, Citi flagged that Polycab’s extra-high voltage capacity is set to be commissioned by year-end, with revenue expected to start flowing in FY28, a potential re-rating catalyst that the current target prices may not fully capture.

The one note of caution across brokerages is margin pressure from a shift in sales mix toward lower-margin exports and higher institutional sales, which clipped EBITDA growth relative to revenue.

Elara specifically highlighted this, even as it maintained a positive view on the stock’s longer-term prospects.

With an aggressive Rs 60-80 billion capex pipeline over five years, a dominant and still-growing market share position, and the FMEG business finally in the black, Polycab is making a case that Thursday’s 6% move may be the beginning of a longer re-rating and not the end of it.