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PPLT: Term Structure Supporting The Downtrend, But Historical Seasonality Says Otherwise
Ivan Gaddari is an independent algorithmic trader with approximately 15 years of experience in financial markets, specializing in the systematic and discretionary trading of forex and commodities. His work centers on building and running quantitative trading systems, combined with a discretionary orderflow layer using cumulative volume delta (CVD) and depth of market (DOM) analysis to refine entries and market context. Over the years he has developed a full trading infrastructure in Python, feeding signals into custom Expert Advisors on MetaTrader 5, alongside a set of proprietary monitoring tools that track market microstructure signals not widely covered elsewhere: multi-pair FX swap points and carry positioning, VIX term structure regime detection, and commodity futures term structure (backwardation/contango) across gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and natural gas. On Seeking Alpha, he intends to write primarily about forex and commodities, translating the output of these monitoring systems into actionable, data-driven market theses — for example, how shifts in swap points signal changing carry trade positioning, or how term structure momentum in oil or precious metals foreshadows directional moves in related ETFs. His approach is grounded in market structure and quantitative signals rather than narrative-driven commentary, and he aims to bring a systematic trader’s perspective to an audience often served mostly by fundamentals-first analysis. His motivation for contributing is to share this data-driven perspective with a wider audience while continuing to sharpen his own analytical process through public scrutiny and discussion.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in PPLT over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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