The MPC cut the policy rate to 1% to ease financial conditions, support SMEs, and anchor inflation expectations, citing fragile growth, downside inflation risks, tighter SME credit, and emphasizing structural reforms beyond monetary policy.

MPC Cuts Policy Rate to 1.0% to Ease Financial Conditions

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 4-2 to reduce the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.0% aiming to ease financial burdens on SMEs and households, anchor medium-term inflation expectations, and support business adaptation amid global uncertainties. The two dissenting members preferred to maintain the 1.25% rate, considering it appropriate given current economic conditions. The MPC views the new 1% rate as sufficient, emphasizing the importance of preserving remaining policy space during high uncertainty and highlighting that structural challenges require policy measures beyond interest rate adjustments.

Economic Outlook and Inflation Risks

The MPC regards the Thai economy as fragile, projecting growth near 2.0% YOY in 2026-27, below potential growth of 2.7%. Inflation faces downside risks due to lower energy prices and government subsidies, with headline inflation expected to return to the target range’s lower bound later than previously anticipated. Trade uncertainty remains due to fluctuating U.S. tariffs, while the risk of fiscal delays has diminished with improving government formation prospects.

Challenges Facing SMEs and Financial Stability Concerns

SMEs continue to face tight financial conditions with rising loan costs and baht appreciation impacting exporters’ profits. Despite policy rate cuts, micro-SME loan rates have increased due to higher credit risks and constrained lending. The MPC will monitor low-rate environment risks, noting increased risk-taking behavior and potential credit misallocation but sees no immediate threat. Monetary policy alone cannot resolve Thailand’s structural growth challenges, requiring complementary economic and financial reforms.

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SCB EIC raises Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.8% due to improved exports and private investment. However, growth remains below potential amid geopolitical and domestic challenges.

SCB EIC has raised its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 to 1.8%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%. This revision reflects improved export performance and increased private investment driven by a global economic recovery, particularly in AI technology and electronic goods. Despite this positive outlook, Thailand’s overall economic growth remains below its potential due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and structural challenges within the country.

Private sector investments are beginning to pick up, aided by foreign direct investment and a rebound in construction activities. However, government spending may slow down after significant economic stimulus in the last quarter of 2025. The Bank of Thailand is expected to reduce its policy rate to 1% to support economic activities, particularly among vulnerable households and SMEs.

Globally, SCB EIC anticipates a 2.7% growth in 2026, primarily driven by investments in AI and digital goods, which mitigate geopolitical pressures. While monetary policy remains accommodative, inflation risk persists, particularly in the U.S. As such, global financial conditions might stabilize but are unlikely to ease significantly given the inflationary pressures in various nations.

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Simeon Gutman
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. Hello. Thank you. Welcome, everybody. I’m Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley’s hardline, broadline food retail analyst. My pleasure to welcome Daniel Danker, EVP, AI Acceleration and Product Design from Walmart, most recently with Instacart as Chief Product Officer in Online Grocery. Thank you, Walmart, for being here third year in a row, and it probably took 3 years to be annointed as a tech company.

I recently — one introduction for Daniel before we get into this, I was talking with Doug about 2 months ago as an outgoing conversation. We talked about some of his hardest decisions, and we asked — I asked him about one of his best decisions. I didn’t know Daniel yet, but he mentioned it was hiring Daniel as someone at the enterprise level who can help advance AI. So high expectations, sorry about that.

What does steady leadership really look like?

For Jayson Baker, it starts with hard work, tough decisions, and a clear focus on people. His career in education spans classrooms, coaching courts, principal offices, and state-level consulting. Along the way, he built a reputation for integrity, growth, and measurable impact.

He does not chase titles. He chases progress.

“For me, success is making a positive impact, moving with integrity, and working toward continual personal and professional growth.”

That mindset has shaped every stage of his journey.

Early Life and Work Ethic

Jayson grew up in Belleville and Freeburg, Illinois. His roots were humble.

His mom, Sandee, was a hair stylist. His dad, Joe, worked as a carpenter and an X-ray technician. Hard work was normal in his home.

He stood out early. He won young authors awards several times. He placed second in a spelling bee in second grade. He won a poetry contest in third grade. In sixth grade, he was student council president. In eighth grade, he was voted funniest in his class.

Leadership and communication came naturally.

But what mattered most was what he learned at home.

“My biggest influences were my parents because they taught me that hard work pays off.”

That lesson would carry him through every transition in his career.

Education and Foundation in Teaching

Jayson graduated from Freeburg Community High School in 2002.

He earned a bachelor’s degree in early childhood education from Southeast Missouri State University in 2006. While there, he joined Kappa Delta Pi, the national honor society for educators.

He later completed a master’s degree in educational administration from Southern Illinois University Edwardsville in 2011.

His early focus was simple: understand how students learn.

As a teacher, he conducted action research in his own classroom. He tested strategies. He studied how the brain processes information. He challenged his own assumptions.

“Realizing that there are more effective ways to teach than what I experienced as a student was difficult to wrap my head around.”

That moment changed him.

“Stepping out of my comfort zone and teaching with the brain in mind ended up being the biggest success I could ask for. My success is the success of the students and educators whose lives I touched.”

This was not theory. It was practice.

From Teacher to Principal and Leadership Coach

Jayson began as a teacher, coach, and grant program director. He later served as a principal and athletic director. Over time, he also worked as an instructional coach and consultant at the state level.

Each move followed the same pattern. Learn. Improve. Lead.

He believes leadership requires more than authority.

“You need to have an understanding of how schools and businesses work, know how the brain works to learn, have courage to advocate for vulnerable and marginalized people, possess a heart that genuinely cares about people, and have the interpersonal and communication skills to inspire and motivate.”

That philosophy shaped how he made decisions.

Leadership is not always popular. Some calls upset people. Some changes create friction.

“Making difficult decisions can be challenging, especially if your decision is not popular. I overcome obstacles by measuring my decisions against what is best for those under my charge.”

That approach builds trust over time.

Grant Writing and Measurable Impact

One of his most concrete achievements was writing and securing a $500,000 grant from the Department of Defense.

That did not happen by chance.

It required research. Data. Planning. Clear outcomes.

It also reflected how he thinks about growth.

“I imagine myself in successful situations and plan out realistic, specific steps to take towards achieving my goals. I measure my success toward long-term goals by hitting milestones in my short-term goals along the way.”

He compares it to taking baby steps instead of one giant leap.

This structured thinking has defined his leadership style. Set a vision. Break it down. Execute.

Leadership Development and Professional Growth

Today, Jayson is known for his focus on leadership development and professional development.

He studies growth. He practices reflection. He leans on discipline.

“I consider myself to be a lifelong learner and teacher, so I make sure I continue to learn something every day.”

He relies on routine. He relies on support.

“I rely on my strong support system in my family for counsel, practice daily reflection, and use prayer to keep me on the right track.”

He also reframes failure.

“Learning is all about the journey. Of course the outcome is important, but the real learning takes place on the road to results.”

Data matters. Feedback matters. But mindset matters more.

Balancing Leadership and Life

Leadership can consume time and energy. Jayson sees it differently.

“When you enter the world of leadership, it is less about trying to strike a balance and more about being fit in the many roles you have.”

He focuses on being a fit father. A fit husband. A fit leader.

He knows there are only so many minutes in a day. So he prioritizes intentionally.

That discipline has defined his career.

From a young student winning writing contests to a principal leading teams and securing major grants, Jayson Baker has built a steady track record.

He does not frame his story around status. He frames it around impact.

And in education, impact is the only metric that truly lasts.