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Qatar open to temporary Hormuz tolls, opposes permanent fees
Business
Jupiter Wagons Q4 Results: Cons PAT tumbles 72% to Rs 29 crore, revenue falls 25% YoY
The company’s revenue from operations came in at Rs 780 crore, also down 25% from Rs 1,044 crore reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
The company’s EBITDA came in at Rs 83 crore, reporting a substantial drop of 46% from Rs 153 crore in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year. Its EBITDA margin also came in lower, down by 410 basis points to 10.6% from 14.7% in the fourth quarter of financial year 2025.
The company’s expenses for the quarter came in at Rs 731 crore, down 20% from Rs 923 crore in Q4FY25, the company said in a regulatory filing.
For the full year under review, revenue from operations came in at Rs 2,916 crore, lower by more than 26% or Rs 1,047 crore, from Rs 3,963.27 crore posted in the previous financial year.
Profit after tax declined 56% to Rs 166 crore, down from Rs 380 crore posted in FY25, the company said on Saturday.
Jupiter Wagons shares have declined 14% since the beginning of the year and about 26% in the past 1 year. The stock has been in the news off late after a report said Indian Railways is preparing to launch a mega Rs 40,000-crore tender to procure 1 lakh freight wagons over the next three to four years.
Last month, international brokerage Jefferies initiated coverage on Jupiter Wagons with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a target price of Rs 200, implying a potential downside of 31% from Rs 290. Jefferies expects growth at Jupiter Wagons to moderate as the business remains heavily dependent on the lower-growth freight wagon segment.
The brokerage estimates a 23% EPS CAGR for Jupiter Wagons over FY26-30, significantly lower than Titagarh’s projected 43%, with wagons expected to continue contributing more than 60% of overall sales even by FY28. It also said the company’s new wheel manufacturing facility is likely to make a meaningful contribution only after FY28.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Business
Investors, labels buy into growing South Asian music business in U.S.

When music strategist Anjula Acharia began launching superstar actress Priyanka Chopra Jonas into Hollywood in the early 2000s, her label partner Jimmy Iovine — the name behind pop sensations such as Eminem and Lady Gaga — told her she was 20 years too early to bring South Asian talent to the U.S.
Now, Acharia is the founder and CEO of 5 Junction, a joint label with Warner Music Group focused specifically on investing in South Asian artists in the U.S.
“That sounded crazy, to think we were 20 years too early, but now, 20 years later, with the explosion of people like Diljit Dosanjh and Karan Aujla … there’s all these South Asian acts that are coming here and really selling out, particularly in the live arena,” Acharia told CNBC.
The South Asian music market in the U.S. has remained largely untapped, but as music becomes more globalized, as with the success of K-pop and Latin acts, South Asian talent is making a case to investors as the next big business opportunity, Acharia said.
Global music revenues are reaching all-time highs, surpassing $30 billion in 2025, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry. Spotify said last year that streams of Indian artists in international markets grew more than 2,000% between 2019 and 2023, and nearly 50% of royalties from Indian artists on the platform in 2024 were from listeners outside India.
With South Asia’s growing population and diaspora, it’s set to be one of the fastest-growing segments within global music, according to Acharia.
“We’re in a different time, and I think digitally things travel just so much faster,” she said. “A lot of big hits were made with samples from Indian music, so it’s been in the zeitgeist for a long time — it’s just not been given a face.”
As more labels look to the subcontinent, Acharia said the business is currently in a stage of experimentation, figuring out what works and how the fan bases will evolve. Warner Music Group is the third-largest music label in the U.S., holding roughly 17% market share by distribution ownership as of the first quarter of 2026, according to Billboard.
“I think the business proposition is this global Indian fandom,” she said. “How do we galvanize this audience and this fandom, and how do we serve it?”
Rhea Raj at the event Atlantic Music Group and Salomon Present: Whisper Room, A Pre-Grammy Celebration, at The Hole in Los Angeles, Jan. 30, 2026.
Chad Salvador | WWD | Getty Images
5 Junction represents top artists such as singer and songwriter Rhea Raj, who told CNBC she’s seeing South Asian music become more mainstream in the U.S.
“We’re seeing more artists at bigger festivals and at award shows, and I think the best of it’s yet to come,” Raj said.
Raj and her sister, Lara Raj, of the girl group Katseye, are two of many South Asian artists in the U.S. building out fan bases that span backgrounds and ethnicities.
Rhea Raj, who got her start on “American Idol” nearly a decade ago, said she believes now is the time that South Asian music is going to “explode” in the U.S., especially as 5 Junction continues to bring more artists to the main stages.
“South Asian music, it is so diverse, and within that, there are so many countries and regions and styles and things to break down and explore, and I just hope that as time goes on and we have more artists in the mainstream pop world, we’ll get to see more and more pieces of that,” she said.
‘Building worlds’
Nora Fatehi performs on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,” Nov. 19, 2025.
Todd Owyoung | NBCUniversal | Getty Images
The streaming era has helped Warner Records to narrow its focus on the South Asian music business because it lowers the barriers to entry, said Karen Kwak, the company’s executive vice president and head of artists and repertoire.
Kwak told CNBC that when she got into the music business, there were practically no other executives or artists who looked like her. Now, that picture has changed dramatically.
Kwak said the younger generations, especially in South Asia, are driving current music trends.
“That is what is so great about the music world we live in today, is that everybody is embracing who they are, and I think youth all over the world, they want to see stars that look like them,” Kwak said. “It’s a rabid fandom in India … and it’s exactly where we want to be.”
The record company is also focused on encouraging collaborations between South Asian musicians and popular American artists to help them break into the music scene, she added.
“It’s really about building worlds, and yes, of course, we’re going to continue investing [in South Asian talent],” she said. “It is what music is. We’re changing and impacting and creating the new music culture.”
It’s also important to Warner to be “genre-bending and genre-blending,” Kwak said, adding that the company is investing in South Asian talent that spans multiple types of music, languages and audiences.
Nora Fatehi is one of those artists. The Moroccan Canadian singer and actress, who has more than 45 million followers on Instagram, saw the potential in the South Asian market and broke in — targeting that audience even though she doesn’t have a connection to South Asia — and became one of the biggest names in the business.
“Right now, what 5 Junction and Warner are trying to do is tap into the different talent that’s coming out of that country, give it a platform, and also allow people around the world to consume the music and to consume the artistry like never before,” she told CNBC.
Fatehi, who will be performing at the World Cup opening ceremony in Toronto in a few weeks, said that even though the American market is hard to crack as an outsider, she’s seeing the results take hold as more talent from South Asia crosses into the West.
“I think the audience is ready for different stuff,” Fatehi said. “Now, with YouTube and Spotify and with social media, I don’t think borders exist any longer. … I think labels and managements and platforms realize that people are ready to consume different types of music.”
— CNBC’s Ryan Baker contributed to this report.
Business
Immunome presents phase 3 trial results for desmoid tumor drug

Immunome presents phase 3 trial results for desmoid tumor drug
Business
Younger viewers are reviving the box office growth

Hollywood can breathe a sigh of relief: Generation Z is not only going to the movies, it’s driving box office growth.
During the pandemic, when theaters shut down and streaming became a dominant force in the media landscape, fears rose that this young cohort would shun the big screen as they matured into more engaged consumers.
However, this generation, which ranges from around 14 to 29 years old, is one of the most active moviegoing demographics and attends more films per year than some older generations, according to data from Fandango.
In 2025, members of Gen Z saw an average of seven movies in theaters — matching average viewership among millennials — while members of Generation X and baby boomers saw around six movies on average, Fandango found.
“Gen Z is driving moviegoer trends today, and I think people are shocked,” said Jason Dorsey, president and co-founder of The Center for Generational Kinetics and co-author of “Zconomy.” “They’re like, ‘Oh, Gen Z doesn’t want to leave their house.’ That’s not true. Gen Z absolutely wants to leave their house — probably more than you know.”
Gen Z accounted for nearly 40% of all movie audiences in North America in 2025, according to data from Comscore.
As teens and 20-somethings become the dominant generation at the box office, they’re also shaping the future of moviegoing — and studios and movie theaters are taking note.
“Not only are we seeing a bigger and bigger percentage of Gen Z make up our overall audience, but their frequency is increasing year over year,” Carrie Trotter, senior vice president of marketing at AMC, told CNBC. “So they have become one of the most important audiences for us, and I see that in the future, it may become the absolute most important audience for us.”
Building loyalty among Gen Z
Helping to fuel Gen Z’s affinity for the movies is the fact that it remains one of the more inexpensive forms of entertainment.
“Ticket pricing has gone up, as it does, but when you compare it to the year-over-year inflation rate, it’s on par, if not less,” said Steve Buck of EntTelligence, a movie data firm. “When you think about Gen Z, they are cost-conscious, but they’re opening up their wallet.”
Gen Zers came of age around the time of Covid, which Dorsey called a “generation-defining experience.” This cohort doesn’t know a time without social media or smartphones and is incredibly cost-conscious, having grown up in a time of great uncertainty, he said.
“Covid uprooted all of their plans,” Dorsey said. “They were going to school, going to college … everything got turned upside down and it lasted for a long period of time. So, we see them much more fiscally conscious. I’ll say it generally, like they’re really conservative with their money in general, much more thrifty than we would expect for somebody at their age.”
This has led a significant portion of Gen Z to opt for loyalty programs at movie theaters, like AMC’s A-list, Regal Unlimited and Cinemark’s Movie Club, that reward them for money spent or allow them to see multiple films a month for a subscription fee.
“Gen Z over-indexes in the AMC A-List tier, and their participation has grown triple since the pandemic,” Trotter said, noting that AMC’s program also allows customers to book tickets for other loyalty members that are part of their friend group.
“We’re trying to make it as frictionless as possible so we can encourage as much moviegoing and this social atmosphere,” she said.
At Rutgers Cinema in Piscataway, New Jersey, general manager Alex DelVecchio is keeping ticket prices low for the the students at nearby Rutgers University. Students who show a school ID pay just $5 for matinee screenings and $9.50 for all other general admissions. That’s quite a bit cheaper than the nationwide average of nearly $13.50, according to EntTelligence.
“We try to keep it as cheap as we can,” DelVecchio said.
But it’s not all about affordability. DelVecchio said he also runs promos like free slushies on Wednesdays and looks for ways to engage his predominantly college-age consumer.
For the release of Warner Bros.’ “It: Chapter One” in 2017, DelVecchio said the company put a clown in every theater, posted red balloons all over campus and had a staff member wear a yellow jacket and play with a paper boat outside to mimic iconic scenes from the movie.
“We started selling everything out,” he said. “And, then, once you get the momentum you can keep it as long as you keep playing what they want.”
Tashi-delek | E+ | Getty Images
While Gen Zers are selective about their spending, they are willing to shell out for experiences, particularly social activities they can do with their friends that give them an excuse to disconnect from their phones.
“This is a way for them to come and spend time with their friends and their family, and that social experience really outweighs the movie itself that they’re seeing,” Trotter said. “But also there’s a little bit of FOMO [fear of missing out], like they want to be part of the excitement and their fandom of that fuels their desire to be the first to see these movies and be part of the conversation as it’s happening.”
And while Gen Z enjoys staying off their phones during the movie, they still use social media to share their thoughts on films and see what others think of new and old titles.
Letterboxd, an online platform where moviegoers can track movies they’ve watched and post reviews, has become so ubiquitous with this generation that Hollywood has come to refer to Gen Z interchangeably as the Letterboxd generation.
The site currently has more than 29 million users, with more than half of that base under the age of 35. Through Letterboxd, Gen Z is relying more on community reviews than those of official movie critics when choosing what movies to see in theaters.
What Gen Z wants to watch
Of course, Gen Z has some genre-specific preferences, and Hollywood appears to be playing to them.
Similar to their elders, this age group often flocks to cinemas for horror films and R-rated fare. But they diverge from previous generations in their interest in anime and video game adaptations based on games they played growing up. Gen Zers have also shown a penchant for older, rereleased titles, leaning into the nostalgia of moviegoing.
In 2025, “A Minecraft Movie,” based on the popular online game, was the most attended film by Gen Z, according to data from EntTelligence. The Warner Bros. film generated more than $424 million domestically during its theatrical run, the second-highest take of the year, and tallied $960 million globally.
Meanwhile Sony and Crunchyroll’s “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba — The Movie: Infinity Castle” saw the largest percentage of Gen Z in its audiences, with 42% of tickets being sold to this members of the generation.
Jack Black, Jason Momoa and Sebastian Hansen in Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment’s “A Minecraft Movie.”
Warner Bros.
So far in 2026, Universal’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the most attended film by Gen Z. It’s secured $425 million domestically, the highest-grossing film of the year so far, and $982 million globally.
Box office analysts expect films like Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” Universal’s “Minions & Monsters,” Sony’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” to see a significant portion of ticket sales from Gen Z audiences.
“I think theaters have a real opening right now to be that in-person social experience for Gen Z,” Dorsey said. “It’s still fragile, the generation is still finicky, but there’s a massive opportunity for them to be able to build on the fact that they can create these wonderful in-person experiences and in a more affordable way.”
Disclosure: Versant is the parent company of Fandango and CNBC.
Business
Donovan Mitchell Defends James Harden’s Playoff Struggles Citing Jordan and LeBron’s Early Failures
CLEVELAND — Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell pushed back against criticism of teammate James Harden’s performance in the 2026 Eastern Conference finals, drawing comparisons to NBA legends Michael Jordan and LeBron James to highlight the difference between early struggles and ultimate success. The Cavaliers were swept by the Boston Celtics in the series, with Harden facing sharp scrutiny for his diminished output.
Harden, acquired by Cleveland before the trade deadline to provide playoff experience alongside Mitchell, averaged just 16.0 points per game in the Eastern Conference finals while shooting 38.9% from the field and 17.9% from three-point range. His assist numbers also dipped to 3.0 per game, and defensive lapses were noted by observers. The performance marked a disappointing return to the conference finals stage for the veteran guard.
Mitchell, however, refused to place blame on his backcourt partner. Speaking after the series, he emphasized Harden’s body of work over nine seasons and criticized what he called a cultural focus on failures rather than achievements. “I’ve watched Harden for nine years,” Mitchell said. “I’ve watched it and to see it firsthand, the work ethic, the passion, the IQ, the leadership. The man just gets a bad rep.”
He continued by referencing historical context for superstar players. “Yeah, sure, has he had some rough moments? I’m sure we all have. LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. We don’t really speak on the Mavericks Finals when he struggled. We don’t speak on Jordan taking eight years to get to the Finals. We speak on the wins.”
Jordan did not reach the NBA Finals until his seventh season in 1991, after multiple early playoff exits against strong Eastern Conference competition, including the Detroit Pistons. James, in his first Finals appearance with the Miami Heat in 2011, struggled notably as his team fell to the Dallas Mavericks in six games. Mitchell used these examples to argue for perspective on Harden’s career trajectory.
Mitchell also referenced actor Denzel Washington’s three Oscar wins alongside eight losses. “I saw Denzel say this. He’s won three Oscars. And the first thing he said to the interviewer was like, ‘Yeah, but I lost eight times.’ We don’t talk about that, right? We talk about what? Success, success, success. We don’t talk about the failures,” Mitchell added.
The comments come as the Cavaliers reflect on a season that raised expectations with the Harden addition but ended in a sweep. Harden, a former MVP and 10-time All-Star, has faced consistent questions about his postseason performances throughout his career, particularly as the primary option. His only NBA Finals appearance came in 2012 as a sixth man with the Oklahoma City Thunder. As the lead player for the Houston Rockets, he reached the Western Conference finals in 2018 but could not advance further.
NBA analysts offered mixed reactions to Mitchell’s defense. Some praised the loyalty and focus on long-term narratives, while others noted that Harden’s recent output, particularly his efficiency and defensive engagement, fell below expectations for a player brought in to elevate a contending roster. The Cavaliers’ front office had viewed the trade as a move to pair Mitchell with a proven creator capable of performing in high-stakes games.
Harden’s regular-season contributions with Cleveland helped the team secure strong positioning, but the postseason exposed challenges in adapting to a supporting role behind Mitchell while still shouldering significant offensive responsibility. His usage rate remained high, yet scoring efficiency declined against Boston’s physical defense.
The broader conversation reflects ongoing debates in NBA culture about player legacies. Supporters of Harden point to his revolutionary impact on offensive spacing and step-back shooting, innovations that influenced a generation of guards. Critics focus on his teams’ repeated postseason exits before reaching the Finals as the undisputed leader.
Mitchell’s remarks also underscore team chemistry priorities as the Cavaliers look toward the offseason. With both players under contract, Cleveland management must decide whether to build around the duo or pursue additional roster adjustments. Mitchell, a perennial All-Star, has expressed commitment to winning in Cleveland after earlier stints with the Utah Jazz.
League observers note that public defenses like Mitchell’s are relatively rare in the modern NBA, where individual accountability often dominates post-series analysis. By invoking Jordan — widely regarded as the greatest player ever — and James, a four-time champion, Mitchell sought to reframe the narrative around resilience and eventual triumph rather than isolated shortcomings.
Jordan’s path included six consecutive first-round or conference exits before his breakthrough championship run with the Chicago Bulls. James rebounded from the 2011 Finals disappointment to win two titles with Miami and later deliver championships for Cleveland and Los Angeles. These arcs provide historical precedent for patience with star players navigating playoff pressure.
For Harden, now in his mid-30s, the 2026 postseason represents another chapter in a lengthy career. He has previously addressed critiques about his conditioning and playoff performances, emphasizing adaptation to new systems and roles. The Cavaliers’ coaching staff highlighted his leadership in the locker room despite on-court challenges.
The timing of Mitchell’s comments arrives amid heightened media scrutiny of star performances in an era of player movement and superteam formations. Social media amplified both praise for his teammate loyalty and skepticism about excusing subpar statistical output in elimination games.
Cleveland’s season demonstrated promise, with strong regular-season wins and individual accolades, yet the swift conference finals exit has prompted questions about roster construction and playoff readiness. General Manager Mike Gansey and the front office are expected to evaluate free agency and trade options with an eye toward complementing the Mitchell-Harden backcourt.
As the NBA offseason begins, Mitchell’s public stance may help shield Harden from some internal pressure while signaling unity to the fan base. The guard’s comparison to cultural icons like Washington further illustrated his point about society’s selective memory regarding success versus failure.
Ultimately, the 2026 Eastern Conference finals served as another test for veteran leadership in the league’s evolving landscape. Whether Harden can rebound and contribute to a deeper playoff run next season remains to be seen, but Mitchell’s defense provides a counterpoint to immediate criticism and invites reflection on how NBA legacies are constructed over time.
The Cavaliers will look to address defensive inconsistencies and perimeter shooting depth in the coming months. For now, Mitchell’s words offer a reminder that championship paths are rarely linear, even for the game’s most accomplished players.
Business
GrafTech: Some Green Shoots, But A Long Way To Go
GrafTech: Some Green Shoots, But A Long Way To Go
Business
Kate Middleton Still Plays Prosecco Pong, Reveals Competitive Royal Family Member Mike Tindall
LONDON — Mike Tindall, husband of Zara Tindall and a member of the extended British royal family, has offered a rare glimpse into the lighter side of Princess Kate, revealing that the Princess of Wales continues to participate in a popular drinking game with relatives. Tindall described Kate as “uber competitive” during family gatherings, where the group often plays a refined version of beer pong using prosecco.
In a recent interview with Woman & Home magazine, the former England rugby player highlighted the competitive spirit that runs through the royal family. “I knew that the Princess of Wales was uber competitive because I’d seen her play a drinking game called beer pong, but normally we play prosecco pong! She still plays it with us,” Tindall said.
The comments shed light on a more relaxed aspect of royal family life, far from the formal duties and public appearances that define the institution. Tindall, married to Princess Anne’s daughter since 2011, has previously spoken about the family’s shared passion for sports and competition. He noted that “sport is rife throughout the royal family — everyone is competitive.”
This latest revelation builds on a 2023 podcast episode of “The Good, The Bad & The Rugby,” which Tindall co-hosts. During that recording at Windsor Castle with Prince William, Kate and Princess Anne, Tindall teased Kate about her competitive nature. When she playfully responded, “I’m not competitive at all,” he replied by referencing her prowess at the game.
Kate and William have long been associated with an active lifestyle, from sports days with their children to patronages involving athletics and wellness. The couple, who reside primarily at Adelaide Cottage in Windsor with Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis, often emphasize family time and outdoor activities. The prosecco pong anecdote humanizes the Princess of Wales, portraying her as someone who engages fully in casual family moments.
However, Kate’s approach to alcohol has evolved in recent years. In March 2026, during a visit to the Southwark Brewing Company in London with William, she openly discussed reducing her consumption following her 2024 cancer diagnosis. “Since my diagnosis, I haven’t had much alcohol. It’s something I have to be a lot more conscious of now,” she said at the time.
She has been in remission since early 2025 and has focused on recovery while gradually resuming public duties. The Princess continues to prioritize health and family, appearing composed and active in recent engagements. Tindall’s comments about the game do not specify frequency or context but suggest it remains part of occasional family fun.
The royal family has a well-documented affinity for sports. William and Kate regularly attend athletic events, support various teams and encourage physical activity among young people through initiatives like the Heads Together mental health campaign. Tindall’s rugby background and his podcast have provided additional platforms to discuss these interests.
Public reaction to Tindall’s interview has been largely positive, with many appreciating the relatable portrayal of a senior royal enjoying simple pleasures. Social media users noted the contrast between Kate’s polished public image and her competitive edge in private settings. Some drew parallels to how other public figures balance formality with personal enjoyment.
Royal commentators view such disclosures as strategic in showing the family’s human side without compromising dignity. Tindall, known for his straightforward style, has occasionally offered candid insights into royal dynamics while maintaining respect for boundaries. His marriage to Zara has integrated him deeply into the family circle, where informal gatherings at estates like Windsor provide opportunities for such activities.
The game itself, often called prosecco pong in royal circles, adapts the classic American party game by substituting beer with sparkling wine. It involves teams aiming to land balls into opponents’ cups, with the losing side typically drinking the contents. Its mention underscores a casual, lighthearted tradition among the younger generation of royals and their spouses.
Kate’s competitive streak extends beyond games. She has spoken previously about intense tennis matches with William that sometimes go unfinished due to their mutual drive to win. This trait appears shared across the family, from Prince William’s love of polo to Princess Anne’s equestrian achievements and the late Queen Elizabeth II’s known enthusiasm for horseracing.
As Kate continues her recovery and public role, such stories contribute to a narrative of resilience and normalcy. She has increased her workload in 2026, focusing on early childhood development, mental health and sports initiatives. Her presence at events remains graceful, even as she navigates post-treatment life with greater health awareness.
Buckingham Palace has not commented on Tindall’s remarks, consistent with its policy on private family matters. The anecdote arrives amid broader interest in royal personal lives, especially following health challenges faced by senior members in recent years. It also coincides with ongoing discussions about modernization and relatability within the monarchy.
For many observers, the story reinforces that even those at the pinnacle of British society enjoy moments of fun and friendly rivalry. Mike Tindall’s willingness to share these details adds warmth to the public perception of the Wales family, balancing their official responsibilities with glimpses of everyday joys.
As summer approaches, the royals are expected to participate in traditional events like Royal Ascot and Trooping the Colour, where public and private worlds intersect. Whether prosecco pong features in any post-event gatherings remains a private matter, but Tindall’s comments ensure the competitive spirit of the family stays in the spotlight for the moment.
Business
How I Would Invest $1 Million Today
How I Would Invest $1 Million Today
Business
How to Avoid the Tiny Blunder That Cost Two Donors a $665,000 Tax Deduction
Small details can sink large tax deductions for charitable donations.
A case in point: Two recent Tax Court decisions involving first cousins who donated 13.3 acres of land to Highland City, Utah, in 2018. The judge ruled that Stephen Martin and Clint Martin, who were close growing up and later did business together, can’t deduct $665,000 for the land donation. A limited liability company owned by the cousins acquired the land for $22,000 at a delinquent-tax auction in 2014.
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Business
Thai Baht at Risk as Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher
Middle East conflict and rising oil prices could weaken the Thai baht to 33 per dollar. Thailand’s reliance on oil imports makes it vulnerable to increased costs, potentially impacting its trade balance and currency value.
Key Points
- The Thai baht could weaken beyond 33 per US dollar due to rising Middle East war-driven oil prices.
- Thailand’s status as a net oil importer means higher import costs, potentially shifting its trade surplus into a deficit and increasing baht volatility.
- In a prolonged conflict, oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel would likely push the baht to near 33 against the dollar.
Escalating Middle East Conflict’s Impact on the Baht
The ongoing escalation of conflict in the Middle East poses a significant threat to the Thai baht, with K-Research predicting a potential weakening to 33 baht per US dollar. This projection is primarily driven by the anticipated surge in global oil prices. As a net oil importer, Thailand faces a substantial increase in its import bill, which directly impacts its trade balance. The baht has already experienced a decline, reaching a three-month low, reflecting capital flight towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. This trend is further bolstered by expectations that the US Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to rising inflation.
Economic Ramifications of Sustained High Oil Prices
Should the conflict in the Middle East persist, leading to a prolonged period of high oil prices, the economic consequences for Thailand could be severe. K-Research estimates that if oil prices consistently exceed $100 per barrel, the baht is highly likely to depreciate towards the 33 mark. This scenario would drastically erode Thailand’s trade surplus, potentially pushing it into a deficit. The country’s significant reliance on oil imports, accounting for approximately 5-6% of its GDP, makes it particularly vulnerable compared to neighboring Southeast Asian nations. This heightened economic vulnerability contributes to increased volatility in the baht.
Increased Baht Volatility and Market Outlook
Beyond the direct impact on oil prices, the geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in the baht. Year-to-date, baht volatility has risen to 7.7%, surpassing the median for regional currencies. This elevated volatility, coupled with other domestic economic pressures, creates an uncertain trading environment. In the near term, SCB Financial Markets anticipates the baht to trade within a range of 31.6 to 31.9 against the US dollar. This outlook is influenced by the strengthening of the dollar index, driven by the intensifying fighting in the Middle East and the consequent demand for the greenback as a secure investment.
Source : Bangkok Post – Baht faces pressure from oil upswing
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