“Reallocate, Diversify, Reposition”: Ajay Srivastava flags rising macro risks for investors

The Indian markets are entering a phase where global shocks, currency pressure, and rising energy prices are beginning to filter into domestic consumption and corporate earnings, according to Ajay Srivastava from Dimensions Corporate. In a conversation with ET Now, he highlighted that investors may be underestimating the depth of macro risks unfolding over the next few months.

Fuel price hike: “Purchasing power starts to go out from today”

Responding to concerns around the recent fuel price hike, Srivastava cautioned against assuming that the impact is already reflected in markets.

“An average person has to now shell out much more than what he was doing yesterday. The real purchasing power started to go out from today from the consumer’s pocket. I do not think so any of us has any idea what is going to happen in the next three to six months as this whole oil price shock, West Asia shock, FPIs out, rupee at 96, all starts to come into the system. Right now it is just too early for the system to react, but let it flow through because whether it is foreign currency loans, whether it is going to be your imports, whether it is going to be your consumer baskets, it is going to take time for us to understand the impact and none of that looks to be greatly positive.”

According to him, the combination of oil prices, geopolitical risks, FPI outflows and currency weakness could take time to fully reflect in the economy.

Investment strategy: “Reallocate, reallocate, reallocate”
On how investors should respond, Srivastava stressed aggressive diversification rather than concentration.
“Reallocate, reallocate, reallocate. The only thing we are telling investors and anybody who meets me says why do you keep saying that and I say listen you need to just keep diversifying at the end of the day because whether we like it or not our economy it is very domestic, it kind of so much more impacted by what is happening domestically compared to global economy. So, it is now a cliche theme that go invest globally. We have much higher allocations for gold and silver for our investors and advisory because we have always believed that we should be much more than those 5% earlier model being touted for last two years.”He added that investors should rethink traditional allocations and consider global diversification along with alternative assets like gold and silver.

“Legacy and promoter-driven companies will outperform”
Srivastava argued that in volatile markets, established and promoter-led businesses tend to outperform.

“This is the stage where you need to buy into stocks and areas which you never had, that is the key. Number two is go after legacy. Legacy companies do extremely well in turbulent time. Whether it is financial services, whether it is consumer, whether it is industrial, you will find that the legacy companies have performed the best. I am giving example not quoting, you see CG Power, you see ABB and you know what I am talking about it. And you have to go back to the thesis that Indian executives today in MNCs and other PE-led companies are a very complacent lot. It is only where promoters directly involved, you see performance.”

He further added that promoter-driven firms across sectors such as engineering, industrials, autos, materials, and financial services are better positioned to deliver returns.

IT sector outlook: “Just buy US IT instead”
On Indian IT, Srivastava took a strongly contrarian stance, suggesting investors look outside India.

“Oh no, not at all. Not at all. Just if you want to buy IT, I will tell you one thing, just go buy US IT companies. We had a big boom IPO yesterday, Cerebras out in the US at this point of time. The themes are there… I do not think so these companies have a future with these management. They are not going to do anything for you. They have run out of ideas.”

He contrasted Indian IT firms with global technology leaders and emerging AI-driven companies in the US, arguing that innovation has shifted away from traditional outsourcing models.

Global allocation: “Compare PE ratios, you will get your answer”
On increasing exposure to US equities, he pointed to valuation gaps.

“Well, he just has to do one comparison, just compare Walmart PE versus the PE of DMart and he will understand the answer… So, I would just say pick up any sector, look at consumer sector, just look at Unilever India, you look at Unilever Global, just see what is the PE difference and you know what you are paying for in India.”

He added that investors often ignore global valuation comparisons, despite higher multiples in India relative to global peers.

Pharma sector: selective opportunity with export tailwinds
On pharma, Srivastava said the sector remains structurally strong but needs careful selection.

“Yes, but Nifty Pharma has underperformed for a fair bit and pharma has got various segments… So, I would still say sectorally it is a good place because lot of exports, rupee-dollar benefit, most of the companies, not most but literally all are debt-free companies, strong cash flows… I would tend to believe that export-driven companies in pharma sector would do very well for the next three to five years.”

He highlighted CRDMO and export-led pharma businesses as the most promising segments.

Bottom line
Srivastava’s message to investors is that macro uncertainty is rising, consumption pressure is building, and portfolio strategy must evolve.

From global diversification and alternative assets to promoter-driven domestic companies and selective sector bets, his stance reflects a cautious but actively repositioned investment approach for the months ahead.