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Rupee at risk? BOP pressure, oil shock and capital flows hold the key, says Rahul Bajoria

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Rupee at risk? BOP pressure, oil shock and capital flows hold the key, says Rahul Bajoria
India’s currency outlook is once again under scrutiny, with projections indicating the rupee could weaken to 94 against the US dollar by mid-2026. The backdrop: rising oil prices, a widening current account deficit, and fragile global capital flows.

Speaking to ET Now, Rahul Bajoria from BofA Global Research explained that while the forecast predates recent RBI measures, the core concern remains intact.

“So, I would say the numbers were done before the RBI came out with the measures… the main underlying issue remains with the balance of payments… we will run with a small BOP deficit… which can very well take us back towards 94 levels… we should kind of stabilise around 93 levels… but there is significant uncertainty about any spot projections.”

A Growing External Imbalance
India’s external position is becoming increasingly stretched as higher energy prices push up the current account deficit.

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“No, absolutely… the most fundamental challenge… is how the external balances are set up… with the widening in the current account deficit… there is still going to be a challenge as to how do we attract capital… measures to increase capital inflows… should be the core focus… to stabilise the currency.”


RBI’s Balancing Act
The Reserve Bank of India, Bajoria noted, is less concerned about defending specific levels and more focused on preventing disorderly moves.
“RBI… do not really track any particular levels… they are more worried about the pace and intensity… if there is a current account widening, the RBI would let the rupee adjust… 94-95… they would probably be okay… what matters more is attracting capital inflows going ahead.”Capital Flows: The Swing Factor
Recent outflows, he said, reflect a broader global trend rather than India-specific weakness.

“A lot of the capital outflows… are just funds lightening risk… we have seen outflows across emerging markets… we are not being singled out… in the half of the year we are looking for capital flows to make a return… but the real question mark is… is that going to be enough.”

Rate Hikes: Not a Given
On monetary policy, Bajoria emphasised that rate hikes depend on whether the shock is inflationary or growth-related.

“So, I would not say it is a given… it depends on whether this manifests into a growth shock or an inflation shock… if it is an inflation shock… there is a case for some monetary adjustment… but if growth slips below 6.5%… I am not entirely sure the RBI would be comfortable hiking rates.”

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Inflation Risks: Limited Downside
While food prices have softened recently, risks may still tilt upward due to fuel and global factors.

“So, the downside risk is coming from high-frequency prices… vegetable and cereal prices… have been moving lower… but a potential fuel price hike… and global El Nino conditions… make me think downside risks are limited… there is going to be some upside risk.”

The Bottom Line
The rupee’s path will depend on how oil prices, capital flows, and policy responses evolve. Near-term pressure may persist, but stability could return if global conditions improve and inflows pick up. For now, uncertainty continues to dominate the outlook.

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Air Canada (AC:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Vagn Sørensen

[Interpreted] Good morning, shareholders and guests. My name is Vagn Sorensen. I am the Chair of Board of Directors of Air Canada. Welcome to our Annual Meeting of Shareholders.

[indiscernible] Canada’s commitment to indigenous inclusion and reconciliation. Our network crosses many treaty lands as well as unceded and traditional territories of indigenous nations and governments on Turtle Island, that is North America. In that spirit, we recognize the ancestral and traditional lands of the indigenous people we fly over.

[Interpreted] In 2025, Air Canada was honored to support the return of 62 sacred and cultural indigenous artifacts from the Vatican. We carried them back on one of our aircraft. We’re meeting today only a few weeks after the tragic accident at LaGuardia Airport involving Air Canada Express Flight AC8646. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I would like to express our deepest condolences to the family, friends and colleagues of the 2 Jazz pilots who tragically lost their lives.

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I also want to express our deepest condolences to the family, friends and colleagues of 2 Jazz pilots who tragically lost their lives. I also want to express our sincerest sympathies to the passengers, crew members and others who were injured or otherwise affected as well as our appreciation to everyone in our company, industry or otherwise, who helped at the time and in the days that followed.

[Interpreted] That tragedy has been felt by all of our Air Canada family. I invite you if you are able to stand and observe a moment

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Mitsui: New Three-Year Plan Should Deliver 10% Annual Growth (Rating Upgrade)

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Mitsui: New Three-Year Plan Should Deliver 10% Annual Growth (Rating Upgrade)

Mitsui: New Three-Year Plan Should Deliver 10% Annual Growth (Rating Upgrade)

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Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

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Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1508 ET – Oil futures retreat from overnight highs and settle lower with the market watching for the next move in the standoff between the U.S. and Iran while just a trickle of oil gets through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery falls 3.4% to go off the board at $114.01 a barrel, bringing it closer to the $110.40 for the July contract. “On top of the expiration liquidation flush today, Brent also came under pressure after European Union economic data came in on the soft side,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says in a note, pointing to the below-estimate 0.1% rise in eurozone 1Q GDP. WTI settles down 1.7% at $105.07 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1309 ET – The European Central Bank’s decision to hold the interest rate at 2% makes perfect sense given the current uncertainty in markets, Morningstar strategist Michael Field said. Interest rate has been stable until a few months ago, but after the price of a barrel of oil spiked to $125, the situation has become more volatile. “The Governing Council will closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance,” writes the European Central Bank in a press release. Investors have priced in 2-3 rate hikes as high as 2.5%-2.75%. Field says markets presumably will read the language in today’s statement positively.(julia.nasser@wsj.com)

0953 ET – ConocoPhillips says it is excluding Qatar from its production guidance for the current quarter, citing uncertainty around the war in the Middle East. The oil producer also cuts its full-year production outlook to account for the exclusion, now calling for production of 2.3 million to 2.33 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day this year. That compares with a prior outlook of 2.33 million to 2.36 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day. ConocoPhillips is off 1.8% in early trading after reporting lower 1Q earnings. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

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Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Trump says US Navy acting ’like pirates’ to carry out naval blockade of Iranian ports

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Trump says US Navy acting ’like pirates’ to carry out naval blockade of Iranian ports


Trump says US Navy acting ’like pirates’ to carry out naval blockade of Iranian ports

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Form 13G Eloxx Pharmaceuticals For: 1 May

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Form 13G Eloxx Pharmaceuticals For: 1 May

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Timberwolves Star at Least Two Weeks From Knee Injury Comeback

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Anthony Edwards #1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves pauses during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on February 28, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Timberwolves defeated the Cavaliers 127-122.

MINNEAPOLIS — Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards is expected to miss at least two weeks with a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee.

Anthony Edwards #1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves pauses during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on February 28, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Timberwolves defeated the Cavaliers 127-122.
Anthony Edwards

The injury occurred in Game 4 when Edwards landed awkwardly after contesting a shot. He was helped off the court in visible pain, sparking immediate concern among fans and analysts. An MRI confirmed no structural ligament damage, a significant relief, but the bone bruise requires careful rehabilitation to avoid long-term complications. The Timberwolves have listed him as week-to-week while emphasizing a cautious approach.

Shams Charania of ESPN reported the two-week minimum timeline, noting it positions Edwards for a potential return “at some point in the second round” if Minnesota advances. The Wolves currently lead the series, but Edwards’ absence has tested their depth against a resilient Nuggets team. Coach Chris Finch has praised the supporting cast while acknowledging the challenge of replacing Edwards’ scoring and athleticism.

The timeline aligns with typical recovery for bone bruises in athletes. These injuries involve trauma to the bone beneath cartilage and can cause significant pain and swelling. Hyperextension adds soft tissue strain, requiring progressive loading to restore strength and confidence. Edwards also manages patellar tendinitis in his right knee, adding complexity to his rehabilitation protocol.

Medical experts say bone bruises heal at varying rates depending on severity, location and individual factors. A two-week absence represents the optimistic end of the spectrum, with some cases requiring four to six weeks for full return to high-level competition. The Timberwolves’ medical staff, working with specialists at Mayo Clinic, will monitor progress through imaging and functional testing before clearing Edwards.

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Edwards’ potential absence has major implications for Minnesota’s postseason hopes. As the team’s leading scorer and dynamic playmaker, he averages over 27 points per game in the playoffs. His ability to attack the rim and create for teammates has been central to the Wolves’ success. Without him, opponents can focus defensive attention on Karl-Anthony Towns and others, potentially slowing the offense.

Finch has adjusted lineups and strategies to compensate. Increased minutes for bench players and tactical tweaks have kept the team competitive, but the drop-off in explosiveness is noticeable. If the series extends or Minnesota advances, the coaching staff will carefully manage Edwards’ minutes upon return to avoid re-injury.

The injury occurred at a critical juncture in Edwards’ young career. At 24, he has emerged as one of the NBA’s brightest stars, with All-Star selections and playoff heroics. His absence tests the franchise’s depth and resilience as it aims for a deep postseason run. Team officials have expressed confidence in the roster’s ability to compete while prioritizing Edwards’ long-term health.

Fan reaction has been a mix of concern and optimism. Social media is filled with well-wishes and debates about return timelines. The Wolves’ playoff run has captivated Minnesota, with Edwards’ charismatic personality and highlight-reel plays endearing him to supporters. His potential return in the second round could provide a massive boost if the team reaches that stage.

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Broader NBA implications include player load management and injury prevention. Edwards’ high-usage style and athleticism make him susceptible to lower-body injuries despite his youth. League-wide discussions about rest, scheduling and medical protocols continue as stars miss time in critical playoff moments. The Timberwolves’ handling of Edwards’ recovery could serve as a case study.

As rehabilitation progresses, the focus remains on incremental milestones. Initial rest and swelling reduction will give way to strength training, agility work and eventually on-court drills. Edwards’ competitive nature suggests he will push to return as soon as medically safe, but the organization will err on caution to protect his future.

The coming days will bring more clarity as the series unfolds and medical updates emerge. For now, the Timberwolves face a formidable challenge without their star, while Edwards works behind the scenes preparing for a potential heroic return. The two-week minimum provides a target, but playoff basketball’s unpredictable schedule could align favorably or extend his recovery window.

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Stryker First-Quarter Sales, Profit Rise as it Dealt with Cyberattack

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Stryker First-Quarter Sales, Profit Rise as it Dealt with Cyberattack

Stryker posted higher profit and sales in the first quarter, during which it was hit by a cyberattack that reportedly was in retaliation to the war in Iran.

The medical-device company on Thursday posted a profit of $745 million, or $1.93 a share, compared with $654 million, or $1.69 a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Thai Airways International to Double Fuel Surcharges Starting May 1

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Thai Airways International to Double Fuel Surcharges Starting May 1

Thai Airways International will nearly double fuel surcharges on most routes from May 1 due to soaring jet fuel prices. This follows recent flight reductions. Tickets issued before May 1 will retain existing rates.


Key Points

  • Fuel Surcharge Increase: Thai Airways is nearly doubling fuel surcharges on many routes for tickets issued from May 1st due to soaring jet fuel prices caused by the US/Iran conflict.
  • Route Impact and Examples: Both regional and long-haul flights will be affected, with significant price hikes on routes like Bangkok-Yangon, Bangkok-Beijing, Bangkok-Seoul, Bangkok-Sydney, and European destinations.
  • Ticketing Deadline: Passengers whose tickets are issued by April 30th will retain the current, lower surcharge rates, regardless of their travel date.

Increased Fuel Surcharges Implemented

Thai Airways International is set to significantly increase fuel surcharges on numerous routes, effective for all tickets issued from May 1. These surcharges, integrated directly into the ticket price, will impact both regional and long-haul flights. This adjustment follows a recent reduction in flight frequencies across domestic, regional, and intercontinental services. The airline attributes this decision to a substantial surge in jet fuel prices, which have reportedly tripled since the commencement of the US/Iran conflict. This measure aims to offset the escalating operational costs associated with fuel.

Specific Route Adjustments and Passenger Protection

The revised fuel surcharges present a marked increase across various routes. For instance, the Bangkok–Yangon route will see surcharges rise from USD 49 to USD 93 in economy class. Similarly, Bangkok–Beijing and Bangkok–Delhi routes will experience an increase from USD 126 to USD 241 for economy class tickets. Longer routes, such as Bangkok–Sydney, will jump from USD 203 to USD 389 in economy. The steepest hikes are observed on European routes like Milan, London, and Paris, where economy class surcharges will climb from USD 275 to USD 524. Crucially, passengers with tickets issued by April 30 will retain the existing surcharge rates, irrespective of their travel date.

Rationale and Market Context

The airline’s decision to almost double fuel surcharges is a direct response to the volatile global fuel market, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. The tripling of jet fuel prices has created an unsustainable cost burden for the airline. This financial pressure is also reflected in the airline’s prior decision to reduce flight frequencies, indicating a broader strategy to optimize capacity and manage operational expenses. This move aligns with industry-wide trends, as indicated by related news about other carriers reducing flights and airfares surging on Europe-Asia routes due to similar market conditions.

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Magnetar sells $25m of CoreWeave (CRWV) stock

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Magnetar sells $25m of CoreWeave (CRWV) stock

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Baby Born Prematurely Aboard ITA Airways Flight From Dakar to Rome

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Dubai International Airport
ITA Airways

A woman who was seven months pregnant unexpectedly gave birth aboard an ITA Airways flight.

The flight was on its way to Rome from Dakar, the capital of Senegal.

Woman Gives Birth on ITA Airways Flight

According to a report by TravelPulse, the woman went into labor around an hour after takeoff. She safely delivered her baby with the help of a doctor and a nurse who happened to be onboard.

“On flight AZ855, which departed from Dakar last night and was headed to Rome Fiumicino, about an hour after takeoff a woman who was seven months pregnant prematurely gave birth to a baby,” the airline revealed in its statement, which was written in both Italian and English.

Both the mother and the baby are reportedly in good condition.

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First Birth on an ITA Airways Flight

ITA Airways has announced the “happy and unexpected” event on social media, according to Wanted in Rome. The airline also confirmed that this event is actually quite history-making for the airline.

“The baby, in perfect health, is the first child ever born on board an ITA Airways aircraft,” the airline revealed in its statement.

The statement added, “The airline wishes him a wonderful life full of joy.”

Originally published on Travelers Today

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