Sensex to hit 3 lakh by 2036? Raamdeo Agrawal says India is the ‘Ferrari’ among markets, here’s why

While the bulls and bears clash on Dalal Street amid the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ Chairman Raamdeo Agrawal said that India is a ‘Ferrari’ among global markets, and remains one of the world’s best hunting grounds for multi-bagger stocks.

Speaking at Groww India Investor Festival 2026, the market veteran said that decades of compounding, rising financialisation and structural growth trends have built the strong foundation of the Indian market. “I have seen Sensex go from 100 to 80,000 in 40 years. For me to believe the journey will be any different over the next 40 years, there is no argument for that,” Agrawal said.

Markets in South Korea and Japan have recently seen sharp surges to record highs, while Dalal Street delivered comparatively muted returns. Many analysts highlighted that the strong earnings growth by several of these markets, thanks to the AI boom, is attracting FPI flows into those markets. Agrawal, however, reaffirmed that India’s long-term structural trajectory remains unmatched, while acknowledging that some regions are currently benefiting from an AI-led earnings cycle.

Drawing a comparison between India’s Sensex and South Korea’s KOSPI, both launched in January 1980, Agrawal pointed out that while the Korean benchmark index is at around 5,000 points today, the Sensex has climbed past 80,000. “Form may be temporary, but class is permanent. India is the way to go,” he said at the event.

The market expert highlighted that India’s market capitalisation has compounded at nearly 14% annually in dollar terms over the last two decades, compared with around 7% for the US market. “Every five to six years, you double. That is the pace,” he added.

Why India creates more multibaggers

The MOFSL Chairman said his investing philosophy has always focused on finding businesses operating in fast-growing industries within fast-growing economies. Referring to an internal study inspired by Thomas Phelps’ book ‘100 to 1 in the Stock Market’, Agrawal noted that nearly 20% of companies in the NSE 500 delivered over 25% annualised returns for a decade — effectively becoming 10-baggers. The comparable figure in the S&P 500, he said, stood at just around 7%.
“Multi-bagging happens where growth is fastest. You get the maximum multi-baggers in the country which is growing fastest and in the industry which is growing fastest,” he said. Vision, courage and patience are the three things that act as the formula for identifying outsized winners, according to the market veteran. “Whenever you are hitting a big one, you are mostly alone. You need conviction to stay with it,” he added.
Investors often underestimate how compounding works over long periods, Agrawal said, adding that in a stock that delivers 100x returns over two decades, a disproportionate amount of wealth creation typically happens in the final few years. “You sit through 19 years because most of the compounding comes in the 19th and 20th year,” he said.

The Bharti Airtel bet that shaped his investing career

Raamdeo Agrawal reminisced about his early investment in Bharti Airtel. In 2003, after studying the economics of network businesses and speaking with Sunil Bharti Mittal, the market expert became convinced that India’s mobile revolution would create enormous value.

At the time, India had only around 50 million fixed-line phones for a population of more than one billion. Agrawal estimated Bharti Airtel could generate Rs 27,000–28,000 crore in profits over the following five years, even though its market capitalisation was only around Rs 5,000 crore.

He bought Bharti Airtel’s shares at around Rs 19–30 apiece, despite scepticism from peers and friends. “I was alone all the way through,” he recalled. While he sold some shares early under pressure, he held on to a significant portion as the stock multiplied several times over. His final exit came years later at around Rs 650, translating into roughly a 25-fold return.

The next generation of winners

Agrawal pointed out that India’s expanding capital markets ecosystem can create the next wave of multi-baggers. “We are adding nearly 3 million new customers every month…We already have more than 220 million demat accounts. By 2031–32, we could reach 500–600 million,” he said.

Rising retail participation will create opportunities across brokers, exchanges, asset managers, wealth platforms and depositories, he said, admitting to missing out on the sharp rally in BSE despite understanding the sector deeply.

“The stock went up almost 50 times, and I did not make a single paisa,” he said with a laugh.

Today’s quick commerce momentum is similar to Bharti Airtel in 2003
Agrawal drew parallels between India’s quick commerce industry and the early days of telecom. He said the firms operating in the segment are still in the heavy cash-burn phase, but the underlying network effects could eventually create very large businesses.

“This is a Bharti moment,” he said, referring to the potential scale of India’s quick commerce opportunity. He cited comments from global retail executives, including leadership at Walmart, describing India’s quick commerce ecosystem as a glimpse into the future of retail.

What Raamdeo Agrawal avoids completely

Despite his appetite for growth, Agrawal said that he maintains strict filters while evaluating businesses. He avoids companies generating return on equity below 20% and pays close attention to receivables cycles as an indicator of business quality.

“If return on equity is 9 or 10%, I do not even want to enter the meeting,” he said, adding that management quality remains his biggest filter. “They will go to hell and take you along,” he said, referring to promoters with compromised governance standards.
Agrawal also stressed the importance of visiting factories and observing operations first-hand instead of relying solely on management presentations.

Sensex at 3 lakh by 2036?

Agrawal remained bullish on India’s long-term macroeconomic trajectory, projecting that per capita income could double over the next six to seven years. The market veteran expects Sensex to touch 1.5 lakh by 2030 and potentially 3 lakh by 2036, driven by sustained earnings growth and rising participation in financial assets. “Three lakh in 12 years is more guaranteed than one-and-a-half lakh in six years,” he said. “That is how compounding works,” he said at the event.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)