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Shifting from Accelerated Growth to Sustainable Development

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Asia-Pacific digital banking market seen reaching $5.12t by 2033

Southeast Asia’s fintech has evolved, enabling instant, low-cost cross-border transactions. Funding is shifting towards late-stage companies. Payment and lending innovations address inclusion, while regulatory frameworks support growth and cross-border cooperation.

🌏 Evolution of Fintech in Southeast Asia

  • Cross-border transactions now settle in seconds at minimal cost, reflecting massive digital economy growth (US$120B funding, 11.2x revenue expansion 2016–2025).
  • Shift from “growth-at-all-costs” to governance, cost discipline, and sustainable models.

💰 Funding Trends

  • Global fintech funding rebounded in 2025; ASEAN-6 saw US$835M funding, with fewer deals but larger average sizes.
  • Late-stage companies dominate (67% of ASEAN funding), while seed-stage activity hit decade lows.

📊 Key Verticals

  • Payments: Largest funding share, driven by QR frameworks and financial inclusion; projected US$2.4–2.6T by 2030.
  • Alternative Lending: Addresses SME financing gaps; lending book projected to reach US$230B by 2030.
  • Investment Tech: Rapid adoption, AUM projected US$410–457B by 2030.
  • Embedded Finance: Integrated into apps (BNPL, wallets), projected 40% of digital finance market by 2030.

Cross-border financial transactions in Southeast Asia have transformed over the past decade. A remittance that once consumed days and cost approximately 6% in fees can now settle in under 60 seconds via a mobile number, reflecting the scale of change across the ASEAN digital economy, which absorbed US$120 billion in private funding and expanded aggregate revenue 11.2 times between 2016 and 2025.

The ecosystem’s underlying mechanics have shifted materially. Institutional allocators have shifted focus to companies demonstrating strong governance and cost discipline instead of growth-at-all-costs mandates.

Three interconnected mechanisms explain this maturation: a venture capital trajectory consolidating around proven late-stage models; foundational service verticals closing structural inclusion gaps; and a supranational policy architecture converting fragmented jurisdictions into a unified digital economy.

The Funding Arc: From Boom to Selective Investment

Global fintech funding recovered 13% YoY to US$27.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, driven primarily by North America and Europe. Across the ASEAN-6 economies, total regional fintech funding reached US$835 million in 9M2025, as the sector entered a phase of measured consolidation following several years of elevated capital deployment.

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The regional digital economy continues to expand on durable structural foundations. Mobile-first adoption, a young and growing consumer base, and accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across financial services collectively underpin the long-term investability of the region’s fintech sector. Monetary conditions have also shifted in favor of deployment: central banks across Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand implemented rate cuts in 2025, reducing the cost of capital and improving the conditions for both new investment and exit activity across the private landscape.

Capital allocation patterns in 9M2025 reflect a maturing rather than retreating market. While total deal count across ASEAN-6 moderated to 53 transactions, average deal size surged 42% to US$21.4 million, signaling a decisive shift in investor priorities. Late-stage fintechs captured 67% of total ASEAN funding in 9M2025, up 26% YoY, with average per-transaction size rising 40% YoY to US$112 million.

Tracxn’s SEA-wide data confirms the pattern: seed and early-stage funding contracted sharply while late-stage capital rose 13% YoY from 2024. Capital is concentrating in operators with validated models and clear paths to profitability.

Source: FinTech in ASEAN 2025: Navigating the New Realities

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The reduction in early-stage activity signals a deeper structural change. Pre-seed and seed deal share fell to its lowest level in a decade, and first-time venture capital fund formation dropped from 42 in 2022 to 4 in 2025. Mature managers have offset this gap: of the 23 private capital funds raised in 2025, 18 were successor vehicles, with the median step-up ratio rising to 2.0x from 1.3x in 2024, showing that established managers are raising materially larger pools.

Key sectors driving financial inclusion include payments, lending, and embedded finance

In recent years, capital allocation consolidated around foundational infrastructure, with investor conviction concentrated in verticals demonstrating scalable, revenue-generating models. Payments re-emerged as the dominant category in 9M2025, attracting the largest share of regional funding and tying with Investment Tech for the highest deal count. Alternative Lending maintained strong transactional momentum with the third-highest deal count across the bloc, serving as the primary vehicle for fintech capital deployment in the Philippines and Vietnam, markets where digital credit continues to address significant structural gaps in formal financial access.

Payments: The Primary Gateway to Financial Inclusion

Payments infrastructure is the critical acquisition funnel for the broader digital economy. Investors continue to back platforms focused on cross-border transactions, real-time settlement, and interoperable QR frameworks, rewarding operators that address the region’s vast unbanked population.

This structural dominance is anchored by the region’s vast unbanked population. In most ASEAN jurisdictions, less than 50% of the population owns an account at a formal financial institution, indicating the significant potential for digital financial services (DFS) growth.

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Grassroots adoption of digital payments has also been aggressively driven by the proliferation of standardized QR code frameworks. Indonesia’s QRIS framework incentivises micro-merchant adoption by eliminating processing fees below INR 500,000 (approximately US$30). Similar rollouts across Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam have driven a permanent shift away from physical cash. Digital payments gross transaction value across ASEAN-10 reached US$1.41 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$2.4 to US$2.6 trillion by 2030, with digital payments expected to capture 78% of total gross transaction value across Southeast Asia by decade-end.

Alternative Lending: Bridging the SME Funding Divide

Digital payment data provides the transaction history needed to underwrite credit for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) too large for microfinance but too small or informal for commercial bank balance sheets. Across Southeast Asia, up to 60% of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) report difficulty obtaining financing.

Fintech lenders bypass such traditional barriers to lending by using real-time data from e-commerce and digital payments to assess creditworthiness and disburse funds without conventional paperwork.  Regional operator Funding Societies has disbursed over US$4.38 billion to more than 100,000 SMEs, fulfilling 95% of requests in under five days.

Simultaneously, private credit partnerships are reshaping the sector’s funding architecture. Following the global financial crisis, regulatory requirements pushed traditional banks to lower risk appetite and increase reserves, opening a structural gap that private credit funds now fill by purchasing or funding fintech-originated loans. The global whitespace for private credit deployment into fintech lending is estimated at US$280 billion.

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Lending also functions as a high-margin vertical that drives customer stickiness, making it attractive to platforms pivoting from growth to sustainable profitability. The regional digital lending book reached US$91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately US$230 billion by 2030.

Investment Tech

Investment Tech matched Payments for transaction volume, capturing 21% of all regional fintech deals and expanding its funding share to 11% of the ASEAN total in 9M2025, up from 4% in 2024. Growth was anchored by late-stage capital, most notably Syfe’s US$53 million Series C, the fifth-largest fintech deal in ASEAN-6 for the period.

Consumer adoption is accelerating alongside institutional interest: cumulative app downloads rose 166% from 8.4 million in 2021 to 22.4 million in 2025, and sector revenue grew 25% over the same period as platforms upsell users from basic cash products to higher-margin investment portfolios. The Asia-Pacific region’s expanding middle class is also driving demand for digital-native solutions at a much faster rate than mature markets like the US and EMEA.

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Digital wealth assets under management (AUM) across SEA-6 reached US$90 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$410 to US$457 billion by 2030. Multiple digital wealth platforms in the region have individually surpassed US$1 billion in AUM, validating the model.

Embedded Finance: Unseen Framework, Tangible Access

Embedded finance integrates financial products directly into non-financial apps and platforms, removing the acquisition costs and infrastructure requirements of standalone financial services. Embedded finance products include buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) facilities, co-branded credit cards, and ewallet payments across food delivery, ecommerce, and travel. The segment is projected to account for 40% of the total digital finance market by 2030, a US$72 billion opportunity growing at 57.7% CAGR from 25% of US$9.5 billion in 2024.

Unbanked and underbanked demographics function as the primary target market for these solutions, allowing platforms to monetize lower-income cohorts by drastically reducing the cost-to-serve through digital rails. Super app ecosystems are the primary distribution channel. Grab Financial reported 50 million monthly transacting users in 2025. E-commerce platforms like Lazada seamlessly embed digital wallets to offer installment products and loyalty redemptions directly within their native interfaces.

Investors are drawn to embedded finance because it creates compounding benefits across the value chain. For financial institutions, embedded distribution lowers customer acquisition costs materially. For commercial users, accepting e-wallets and embedded financing tools raises conversion rates and extends reach to broader consumer bases.

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Notes: 1) Gross transaction value (GTV) for digital payments includes the value of credit, debit, prepaid card, account-to-account (A2A), and ewallet transactions. 2) Loan book balance for digital lending includes end-of-year balance for consumer loans (excluding credit card and mortgage) and small/medium enterprise (SME) loans. The previously reported number in 2023 has been revised. 3) Assets under management (AUM) for digital wealth includes end-of-year mutual fund AUM balance. The previously reported number for 2023 has been revised. 4) Annual premium equivalent (APE) and gross written premium (GWP) for digital insurance includes APE for life insurance and health under life insurance policies and GWP for non-life insurance. The previously reported number for 2023 has been revised.

 Source: e-Conomy SEA 2025 Report

POLICY AS ARCHITECTURE: HOW ASEAN IS BUILDING REGIONAL INTEROPERABILITY

The Regional Payment Connectivity Initiative
The Regional Payment Connectivity (RPC) initiative links domestic instant payment systems across Southeast Asia to eliminate bilateral friction and compress settlement times. The framework integrates Indonesia’s QRIS, Thailand’s PromptPay, Singapore’s PayNow, Malaysia’s DuitNow, the Philippines’ QR Ph, and Vietnam’s VietQR, enabling retail users to scan foreign QR codes and settle transactions directly from domestic wallets. The mechanism also targets to promote the use of local currencies of regional trade through the Local Currency Transaction framework.

From Bilateral to Multilateral: Project Nexus
Bilateral linkages face acute scalability constraints as the number of required connections grows with each new participant. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) designed Project Nexus as a multilateral hub-and-spoke gateway to address this constraint, targeting a reduction in average global remittance costs from approximately 6% to below 3% and settling 75% of cross-border transactions within one hour. Nexus Global Payments was established in Singapore in April 2025. Bank Indonesia concurrently upgraded to full Nexus membership, committing to integrate its BI-FAST instant payment system into the platform.

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Central Bank Digital Currency Rollouts
ASEAN policymakers favour wholesale digital currency applications over retail deployments, mitigating commercial bank disintermediation risk while targeting cross-border settlement inefficiencies. By 2021, 60% of central banks globally had conducted experimental research on digital currency technology, with 14% at pilot stage.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) advanced wholesale connectivity through the Ubin+ initiative, demonstrating atomic settlement of simulated multi-currency payments in under thirty seconds through its Cedar x Ubin+ experiment with the New York Federal Reserve. Thailand is also participating in the mBridge platform to execute real-value corporate transactions using wholesale digital currencies.

Open Finance and Open API Standards
Open Banking allows customers to share payment account data with trusted third-party providers and authorise those providers to initiate payments or transfers. Open Finance extends this framework to loans, savings, investments, mortgages, pensions, and insurance.

Source: The APAC State of Open Banking and Open Finance Report – ADB Institute

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Regulatory approaches across ASEAN diverge between mandated and market-driven models. Singapore leads through its Finance-as-a-Service API Playbook and the government-backed SGFinDex data exchange platform. Indonesia’s Standard National Open API for payments has achieved adoption across 16 banks. The Philippines enacted the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Open Finance Framework, while Malaysia introduced open finance policies through Bank Negara. However, cross-border data flow frameworks remain heavily fragmented, complicating seamless cross-border interoperability.

The AEC Strategic Plan 2026–2030

The ASEAN Economic Community Strategic Plan 2026–2030 is a binding five-year framework aligning financial technology expansion with macroeconomic integration. Objective 1.4 mandates deeper financial integration and inclusion, elevating payment connectivity to a sovereign strategic priority. Strategic Goal 3 designates digital and technology transformation as a standalone objective, covering cross-border data flows and interoperable digital identities. The plan’s execution depends on the companion Digital Economy Framework Agreement converting its targets into enforceable cross-border commercial obligations.

ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement
The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) is the foundational regulatory architecture for the region’s fintech sector. By harmonising digital trade rules, DEFA enables trusted cross-border data flows, secure digital identities, and standardised digital payments, directly lowering transaction costs for operators and streamlining regulations for SMEs. DEFA is projected to double ASEAN’s digital economy to US$2 trillion by 2030.

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THE STRUCTURAL CASE

Southeast Asia’s fintech ecosystem has passed the inflection point from growth velocity to durable scale. Capital allocation now demands unit economics over subsidised expansion, targeting inclusion-focused verticals that embed lending and wealth services into the daily transactions of previously underserved populations.

A tightening policy architecture requires platforms to treat compliance and risk management as core competencies. The cross-border infrastructure spanning the RPC initiative, Project Nexus, Local Currency Transaction frameworks, wholesale CBDC deployments, and open finance protocols constitutes the region’s most durable structural advantage, systematically reducing bilateral friction and lowering the cost of cross-border capital deployment. The binding catalyst is DEFA, slated for conclusion in 2026, which holds the potential to double the digital economy to US$2 trillion by 2030.

The era of evaluating ASEAN fintech through top-line growth rates alone has closed. The next decade belongs to governance, operational resilience, and regional architecture.

Source : Fintech and Embedded Finance: From Hyper-Growth to Sustainable Scale

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Rubicon Research is an independent long/short equity analyst and investor who focuses on finding deep value and GARP in equities, as well as event-driven special situations. Investment Philosophy: We practice a mix of expectation investing and gauging market psychology as the main tools for our investment decisions. A stock’s price implies a certain expectation for the company. We take a long or short position when the expectation diverges too much from what we believe to be the fundamental value of a company.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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AvePoint: Stock Set For Gains On Strong Growth And Reasonable Valuation (NASDAQ:AVPT)

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David focuses on growth & momentum stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market over the long-term. He is a long term investor of quality stocks and uses options for strategy. David told investors to buy in March 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 increased 367% and the Nasdaq increased 685% from 2009 through 2019. He wants to help make people money by investing in high-quality growth stocks.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The article is for informational purposes only (not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell stocks). David is not a registered investment adviser. Investors should do their own research or consult a financial adviser to determine what investments are appropriate for their individual situation. This article expresses my opinions, and I cannot guarantee that the information/results will be accurate. Investing in stocks involves risk and could result in losses.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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I have more than 35 years of experience in the investment field, having worked as a sell &amp buy side analyst and portfolio manager for debt and equity funds. I am currently managing a high-yield Latam bond fund.My goal, as a Seeking Alpha contributor, is to provide a fundamental view and analysis of companies and funds in a streamlined version of institutional research. The operating and financial forecast, whether my own or based on consensus, drives the valuation and ultimate rating. I like numbers (financial statements) and use words to explain their meaning and potential consequences.For the most part, my selection choices reflect what I believe can offer long-term potential, and I frequently take positions in many ideas for my personal account.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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IDFC First Bank shares soar 9% after Q1 profit jumps 132% to Rs 1,075 crore. What are analysts saying?

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IDFC First Bank shares soar 9% after Q1 profit jumps 132% to Rs 1,075 crore. What are analysts saying?
Shares of IDFC First Bank rallied as much as 9% to Rs 88 on the BSE on Monday after the lender reported its highest-ever quarterly profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,075 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The profit jumped 132.4% year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 463 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

The bank, however, disclosed that it received claims worth Rs 514.8 crore under the CGFMU scheme against its MFI portfolio during the quarter.

Net interest income (NII) rose 21.1% YoY to Rs 5,972.3 crore from Rs 4,933 crore a year earlier. The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) also improved to 5.96% in Q1 FY27 from 5.71% in Q1 FY26, marking an expansion of 25 basis points. On a sequential basis, NIM increased by 3 basis points.

Also Read | Costs and provisions down, IDFC Bank will continue to bolster earnings: V Vaidyanathan, MD & CEO

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Asset quality showed further improvement. Gross non-performing assets (NPA) fell to 1.51% as of June 30, 2026, from 1.97% a year earlier, an improvement of 45 basis points. Gross NPA also declined by 10 basis points on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

IDFC Bank share price target

Emkay maintained its ADD rating with a target price of Rs 85 (5% upside) per share. It said PAT surged 132% YoY to Rs 1,080 crore, crossing the Rs 21,000 crore mark for the first time, driven by higher NII, strong fee income and lower provisions. Emkay expects positive operating jaws and lower provisioning to support an improvement in ROA over the next few years.
Motilal Oswal maintained its Neutral rating with a target price of Rs 90 per share, implying an 11% upside. The brokerage said IDFC First Bank delivered a strong quarter, supported by healthy operating performance and improved asset quality, aided by one-off interest on an IT refund and strong treasury gains.
Adjusted NIM declined 3 bps QoQ to 5.9%, with management expecting further contraction during the year and guiding for an NIM of 5.8%. Deposit growth remained healthy, driven by strong traction in CASA deposits and higher certificates of deposits, while loan growth was strong, supported by steady momentum in retail and a pick-up in wholesale segments.

Also Read |
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Management commentary

The lender said it remains focused on building a high-quality banking institution with strong governance standards and is seeing healthy business momentum.

Management said asset quality continued to strengthen, with gross NPA at 1.51% and net NPA at 0.44%. Provisions as a percentage of loans also continued to decline. During the quarter, the bank received a CGFMU claim of Rs 515 crore and, as a prudent measure, created a provision of Rs 515 crore to account for any potential impact from monsoon conditions or fuel price volatility during the rest of the year.

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Managing Director and CEO V Vaidyanathan said that investments made in building the bank are now beginning to translate into operating leverage, supporting the rise in PAT to Rs 1,075 crore in Q1 FY27. Return on assets (ROA) also crossed 1%.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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Hindustan Zinc shares gain 2% as Q1 net profit soars 145% YoY. Should you buy, sell or hold?

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Hindustan Zinc shares gain 2% as Q1 net profit soars 145% YoY. Should you buy, sell or hold?
Shares of Hindustan Zinc rose 2% to their day’s high of Rs 541 on the BSE on Monday as multiple brokerages reiterated their ‘Buy’ calls for the Vedanta Group company after it reported a whopping 145% year-on-year (YoY) surge in net profit to Rs 5,469 crore for the first quarter of FY27.

Hindustan Zinc, India’s largest producer of silver, on Friday released its results for the April-June quarter of the ongoing financial year 2027. Its revenue from operations rose around 77% YoY to Rs 13,747 crore during the quarter under review, from Rs 7,771 crore reported in the same period last year. Total expenses increased over 33% YoY to Rs 6,749 crore during the quarter, which ended on June 30, 2026.

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Nuvama on Hindustan Zinc share price

Nuvama Institutional Equities noted that Hindustan Zinc’s Q1 EBITDA of Rs 7,990 crore was nearly in line with estimates amid higher prices, partly offset by seasonally lower volume. . Refined Zinc cost of production (ex-royalty) stood lower at $851/ton (down $52/ton QoQ) amid benefits of higher sulphuric acid prices and rupee depreciation, it said.

Silver EBIT was down 2% sequentially due to lower volume and comprised 46% of EBIT in Q1, the brokerage added. “The tight supply market is likely to keep zinc prices relatively high while silver prices are likely to remain firm. We forecast a 3% volume CAGR for refined metal and a 4% volume CAGR for silver over FY26–28E. Higher prices and cost control shall drive EBITDA at 20% CAGR over FY26–28. The 250ktpa zinc smelter expansion shall be commissioned by Q2 FY29,” it added.


Nuvama has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of Hindustan Zinc with a target price of Rs 700 per share, implying around 32% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 531.95 apiece.

Also read |
Hindustan Zinc names Amarendu Prakash as new CEO; quarterly profit more than doubles on strong metal prices

JM Financial on Hindustan Zinc share price

JM Financial said Hindustan Zinc’s Q1 EBITDA beat its estimate, driven by lower cost of production. “We remain positive on HZL given its industry-leading cost position, strong balance sheet and long-term growth pipeline,” it said.
The domestic brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the stock with a target price of Rs 660 apiece, implying 24% upside potential.

Motilal Oswal on Hindustan Zinc share price

Motilal Oswal Financial Services said Hindustan Zinc delivered a slight beat on estimates, with revenue growth being driven by favorable commodity prices, higher by-product realization, and a stronger dollar.
EBITDA’s beat on forecast was primarily driven by favorable metal prices and lower cost of production. “Hindustan Zinc continues to report strong earnings, primarily driven by favorable metal pricing and better grades. The company continues to focus on increasing production output with tighter cost-control measures, which could lead to margin sustenance. The recently announced expansion plans are aligned with its long-term objective of doubling existing capacity and enhancing long-term earnings visibility. Although near-term earnings growth is capped due to limited capacity headroom, the LME/silver price inflation emerges as the key catalyst for incremental upside in the near term. We maintain our FY27/28 estimates and believe further price volatility could remain a potential risk or reward for earnings visibility,” it added.

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Motilal Oswal however noted that the current valuation has priced in all the positive factors. It reiterated its ‘Neutral’ call on the stock with a target price of Rs 570 apiece.

Also read | Hindustan Zinc Q1 Results: Net profit spikes 145% YoY to Rs 5,469 crore, revenue jumps 77%

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Tata Consumer shares jump 3% after Q1 results. Here’s why Nomura, Motilal see strong upside potential

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Tata Consumer shares jump 3% after Q1 results. Here’s why Nomura, Motilal see strong upside potential
FMCG major Tata Consumer Products gained 3% to Rs 1,123 on the BSE on Monday after reporting a 27.8% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 427 crore for the April-June quarter of FY27, compared with Rs 334 crore in the year-ago period.

Revenue from operations rose 11.9% YoY to Rs 5,349 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 4,779 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Total expenses also increased 11% YoY to Rs 4,829 crore during the quarter.

Should you buy, sell or hold Tata Consumer shares?

Nomura, with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,475 (36% upside), said Tata Consumer introduced calibrated price hikes of 1-2% in tea and 6% in salt in June, which should support both sales growth and margins. With tea inflation currently at around 7-10% and new crop procurement still in the early stages, management has indicated that further price hikes, likely towards the end of Q2, will be implemented to protect margins. Nomura expects early double-digit sales growth to continue in FY27F.

The brokerage marginally revised its FY27F-FY29F EPS estimates to factor in lower tea growth due to price cuts and forecasts a 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY26-FY29F. It values Tata Consumer using a DCF model and has raised its target price to Rs 1,475 from Rs 1,450, implying a target P/E multiple of 60x. Key risks include weaker growth in the company’s growth businesses and margin pressure.

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Motilal Oswal, with a Buy call and a target price of Rs 1,500 (38% upside), expects Tata Consumer’s growth momentum to strengthen further, supported by improving go-to-market (GTM) execution, rising e-commerce penetration, premium product launches, and continued expansion of high-growth businesses such as Tata Sampann, RTD Beverages, Capital Foods, and Organic India. The brokerage expects operating margins to improve over the coming years, driven by portfolio premiumisation, innovation-led product expansion, and a rising contribution from higher-margin growth businesses and health and wellness categories.

JM Financial also assigned a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,225 (13% upside). It said Tata Consumer’s Q1 FY27 sales and EBITDA performance were in line with its expectations. Key positives included healthy acceleration in growth businesses, led by Tata Sampann, which grew 58%, NourishCo, and a strong 40% recovery in Capital Foods, along with better-than-expected gross margins supported by benign tea prices and improved international margins.
The brokerage expects sustained momentum in growth businesses, stable international operations, and a recovery in domestic volumes to support double-digit revenue growth. It expects price hikes, year-on-year moderation in coffee prices—which should benefit international margins—operating leverage, and cost-saving initiatives to drive EBITDA margin expansion, with the company reiterating its guidance for a 50-70 bps expansion in FY27.
Nuvama retained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 1,435 per share, saying the company’s Q1 results were broadly in line with expectations. The brokerage highlighted 14 new product launches during the quarter, which it said strengthened Tata Consumer’s innovation pipeline. However, revenue from the non-branded business declined 10% YoY in constant currency terms.
Read more: ITC, HUL among 10 FMCG stocks that have tumbled up to 31% in 2026. How many do you have?

Management commentary

“We delivered yet another quarter of double-digit topline growth, backed by volume growth,” Tata Consumer Products Managing Director and CEO Sunil D’Souza said. He said the India business recorded robust underlying volume growth, reflecting the company’s continued focus on execution, category expansion and innovation.

Also read: Tata Consumer Products to pass higher input costs to buyers

D’Souza added that the company’s “Growth” businesses performed strongly and increased their overall contribution to the India business. Tata Sampann continued to deliver exceptional growth, supported by strong performance across dry fruits, cold-pressed oils, core pulses and spices. The Ready-To-Drink business also had a strong quarter, with growth across its core brands as well as new launches, he said.

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Tata Consumer share price

Over a longer period, however, Tata Consumer shares have gained 2% in a year, 28% in three years and more than 42% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of over Rs 1.08 lakh crore.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Bank of Baroda shares fall 2% after Q1 earnings. Why are brokerages slashing target prices?

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Bank of Baroda shares fall 2% after Q1 earnings. Why are brokerages slashing target prices?
Shares of Bank of Baroda dipped 2% to Rs 242 on the BSE on Monday after the lender reported a 72% year-on-year (YoY) drop in net profit to Rs 1,278 crore for the first quarter of FY27, absorbing a one-off exceptional item of $600 million. Multiple brokerages downgraded their ratings and slashed target prices for the stock after the earnings print.

Bank of Baroda on Friday reported that its net interest income (NII) rose 9% YoY to Rs 12,524 crore during the April-June quarter of FY27, as against Rs 11,435 crore in the year-ago period. Operating income fell slightly to Rs 15,995 crore, while operating profit dropped 1% YoY to Rs 8,127 crore.

Total provisions and contingencies rose to Rs 6,323 crore, mainly due to the exceptional item. The bank’s global advances grew 17% YoY to Rs 14.16 lakh crore, while global deposits rose 14% YoY to Rs 16.33 lakh crore. Global net interest margin stood at 2.77% for Q1 FY27, compared with 2.91% a year earlier and 2.89% in Q4 FY26. Domestic NIM stood at 2.93%. Cost of deposits declined to 4.66%, down 12 basis points sequentially and 39 basis points year-on-year.

Bank of Baroda’s asset quality improved from a year earlier, though bad loan ratios rose sequentially. Gross NPA ratio stood at 1.99% in Q1 FY27, compared with 2.28% in Q1 FY26 and 1.89% in Q4 FY26. Net NPA ratio declined to 0.50% from 0.60% a year earlier, but was higher than 0.45% in the March quarter.

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JM Financial on Bank of Baroda share price

JM Financial said Bank of Baroda reported a mixed Q1 earnings print, with a 72% plunge in profit due to an exceptional charge pertaining to the NMC Health litigation settlement. Excluding this, PAT would have grown 22% YoY, translating to an RoA of 1.1%, it noted.

Operating performance was further weighed down by weak core fee income, declining 22% YoY and missing the brokerage’s estimate by 36%, although sharply lower provisions, aided by release of standard asset provisions, supported profitability, JM Financial said. It added that advances growth came as the bank consciously ran down corporate exposures.
Sustaining RoA above 1% remains a key variable to monitor amid potential NIM pressure, continued reliance on recoveries and potentially higher credit costs following the upcoming ECL transition, the brokerage said. It cut its EPS estimates for FY27 by 5% and FY28 by 1% to factor in the NMC litigation charge, higher credit costs and moderation in fee income.
JM Financial maintained its ‘Add’ rating on the shares of Bank of Baroda, but reduced its target price to Rs 270 apiece from Rs 290. The latest target implies a 10% upside from the previous closing price of Rs 246.45 on NSE.
Also read | Bank of Baroda Q1 Results: Profit falls 72% to Rs 1,278 crore on one-off settlement hit

Motilal Oswal on Bank of Baroda share price

Motilal Oswal Financial Services said Bank of Baroda reported a muted quarter, with the one-off provision weighing on earnings. It noted that the bank expects NIMs to remain broadly in the 2.75% to 2.95% range, while cost of funds appears to have largely bottomed out, with incremental support expected from improving yields.

Business momentum was soft this quarter, with management maintaining credit growth guidance of 12% to 14% going ahead.

While there are no inherent concerns on asset quality, the brokerage expects credit costs to stay high at around 60 basis points in FY28, factoring in the ECL-related transition. It reduced earnings estimates by 18.9% for FY27 and 5.2% for FY28 due to the one-time settlement impact.

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Motilal Oswal maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating but cut its target price to Rs 275, implying nearly 12% upside.

Other brokerages

Systematix Institutional Equities said that excluding the one-off item, core performance remained healthy. However, it reduced earnings estimates to factor in margin pressure and other financial factors. It cut the target price to Rs 290 from Rs 300, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ call.

Dolat Capital maintained its ‘Reduce’ rating and lowered the target price to Rs 250, implying just over 1% upside. It expects RoA to decline to 0.9% in FY28 due to lower margins and upcoming ECL provisions. Its loan growth estimate of 12% over FY27 and FY28 is also below overall banking system expectations.

Also read | NMC health settlement drags Bank of Baroda Q1 net profit down 72%

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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