SpaceX Stock Nears All-Time Low as Investors Weigh Coming Insider Lockup and Its Long-Term Growth Story

SpaceX shares closed at $108.37 Friday, down 3.41% for the session, trading within striking distance of the stock’s all-time low of $107.01 set just days earlier, as investors weigh a wave of upcoming insider selling against the company’s long-term growth ambitions. Because this involves an individual investment decision, the following covers the publicly available facts and differing analyst views rather than a recommendation, and it isn’t a substitute for advice from a licensed financial professional.

SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, pricing shares at $135 and raising approximately $75 billion, an offering that valued the company at nearly $1.8 trillion. The stock surged in its opening days of trading, briefly pushing SpaceX past both Amazon and Microsoft in market capitalization and reaching an intraday all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, according to TradingView. Since that peak, however, the stock has fallen sharply, dropping more than 50% to trade around $108 to $113 as of late July, according to Investing.com, putting shares roughly 19% below their original IPO price and just above the stock’s 52-week low.

A significant driver of recent selling pressure has been the approaching expiration of insider lockup restrictions, the contractual period following an IPO during which company executives, early investors and employees are barred from selling their shares. CNBC’s Jim Cramer addressed the dynamic directly in commentary published July 28, advising investors interested in the stock to wait for that initial wave of insider selling to play out before considering a purchase. “If you want to buy SpaceX, let the first wave of insider selling lockups expire,” Cramer said, according to CNBC. In a separate piece of commentary the same day, Cramer counseled patience more broadly, saying, “It probably pays to be patient with SpaceX.”

The scale of expected insider selling once lockup restrictions lift has become a central concern for analysts modeling the stock’s near-term trajectory. Motley Fool analyst Geoffrey Seiler wrote that a substantial increase in the number of freely tradable shares could weigh on the stock for an extended period. “With a deluge of shares expected to exponentially increase the amount of SpaceX stock available on the open market, this is a headwind the stock will have to contend with for most of the rest of 2026 and into 2027,” Seiler wrote, adding that “SpaceX’s stock price could get cut in half from here by year-end.”

Options markets have reflected similarly cautious positioning among some traders. According to TipRanks, options traders have placed approximately $26 billion in short bets against SpaceX stock as of late July, indicating a meaningful segment of the market is betting on continued near-term price declines rather than a recovery.

Valuation remains a central point of debate among analysts covering the stock. Even after its sharp pullback, SpaceX carries a market capitalization of roughly $1.49 trillion to $1.7 trillion, according to figures from TradingView and Motley Fool, for a company that generated less than $19 billion in revenue during 2025 and posted a net loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, according to TradingView. Morgan Stanley, which maintains a bullish stance on the stock, projects SpaceX’s revenue could reach $45 billion this year, driven substantially by growth in the company’s Starlink satellite internet business, but the bank does not expect SpaceX to become free-cash-flow positive until 2035, according to Motley Fool’s reporting.

Despite the stock’s recent decline, Wall Street’s overall analyst consensus on SpaceX has remained decisively positive. According to Investing.com, 27 analysts currently recommend buying the stock while only one suggests selling, resulting in an overall buy rating. The average 12-month price target sits at $236.71, with estimates ranging from a low of $62 to a high of $800, implying more than 119% potential upside from Friday’s closing price, though the unusually wide range of those targets itself reflects significant uncertainty among analysts about how to value a company this large that remains deeply unprofitable.

SpaceX’s business has continued to expand beyond its traditional rocket launch and Starlink satellite internet operations. The company completed its acquisition of xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, in February 2026, adding AI operations as a third major business segment. More recently, reports have indicated SpaceX is exploring a potential move into offering wireless phone service in direct competition with traditional carriers, according to Semafor reporting cited by CNBC, a development that contributed to declines in shares of AT&T and Verizon in late July amid concerns about new competition tied to SpaceX’s expanding satellite spectrum ambitions.

SpaceX’s ownership structure has also drawn separate scrutiny. Musk has publicly declined to rule out a potential future merger between SpaceX and Tesla, remarks made July 22 that added another layer of speculation to how investors should value the space company relative to Musk’s other ventures. Congressional stock trading in SpaceX shares has separately drawn attention, with reports in late July raising conflict-of-interest concerns tied to purchases by members of Congress, according to CNBC.

With the stock trading near its post-IPO low, a substantial insider lockup expiration still ahead, and analysts sharply divided on how to value a company burning significant cash while pursuing an ambitious, capital-intensive growth strategy, prospective investors are likely to want to weigh their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio diversification needs carefully, and may wish to consult a licensed financial advisor, before making a decision about whether current prices represent an attractive entry point or a stock still working through the aftermath of an unusually volatile public debut.