This is a developing story about the February 2026 consumer price index. Please check back for updates.

Inflation remained elevated in February as the pace of consumer price growth stayed above the Federal Reserve’s target rate as policymakers weigh affordability concerns.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday said that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in February and held steady at 2.4% on a year-over-year basis. The annual figure was unchanged from January, while the monthly gain was slightly higher than last month’s 0.2% reading.

Expectations vs. reality

Both figures were in line with the expectations of economists polled by LSEG.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and rose 2.5% from a year ago. Those figures were in line with economists’ expectations.

The monthly core CPI figure was slightly cooler than January’s 0.3% reading, while the annual figure was unchanged from last month.

FED OFFICIALS CLOSELY MONITOR IRAN CONFLICT FOR POTENTIAL INFLATION IMPACT

Economists have noted that inflation data from December 2025 through April 2026 will be affected due to data collection interruptions resulting from last fall’s 43-day government shutdown.

During the shutdown, the BLS wasn’t able to gather data and used a carry-forward methodology to make up for the lack of an October CPI report and missing data in November’s report. Economists say that going forward this is likely to impart a downward bias on inflation data until this spring, when fresh data will negate the discrepancy.

The cost of living breakdown

High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans, because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.

Food prices increased 0.4% in February and were up 3.1% from a year ago. The food at home index was up 0.4% for the month and 2.4% from last year, while the food away from home index rose 0.3% on a monthly basis and is 3.9% higher than a year ago. Monthly price increases for each category rose from 0.2% in January.

HOW THE IRAN WAR COULD HIT AMERICANS’ GROCERY BILLS

Meats, poultry and fish prices increased 0.2% in February and are up 6.8% from a year ago. Beef and veal prices jumped 1.5% for the month and are up 14.4% on an annual basis. Egg prices continued to decline following an avian flu outbreak that impacted supply, with prices down 3.8% for the month and 42.1% from a year ago. The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.4% in February and is 2.7% higher than a year ago.

Energy prices were up 0.6% in February but are up just 0.5% from last year. Gasoline prices increased 0.8% in February but were down 5.6% compared with the same month a year ago. Utility gas service prices rose 3.1% in February and are up 10.9% from a year ago. Electricity prices declined 0.7% in February and are 4.8% higher than a year ago.

Housing prices rose 0.2% in February and are up 3% from last year, as the BLS noted the shelter index was the largest factor in the overall monthly CPI increase. Tenants’ and household insurance prices were little changed and up just 0.1% in February, but have risen 6.2% in the last year.

OIL SPIKE FADES AS MARKETS REASSESS IRAN WAR SUPPLY RISKS

Transportation services prices were up 0.2% for the month and 2.2% in the last year. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair prices increased 0.9% in February and were up 5.6% from last year. Auto insurance prices declined 0.3% for the month and are up 0.2% over the past year. Airline fares rose 1.4% in February and have increased 7.1% from a year ago.

Medical care services rose 0.6% in February and are up 4.1% over the past 12 months. Prices for personal care services were up 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.9% on an annual basis.

Household furnishings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.9% in the last year. Furniture and bedding prices were flat for the month but have risen 4.2% from a year ago. Prices for appliances rose 3.1% in February but are up 2.9% from a year ago.

Expert analysis

“Before the war in Iran sent gas prices spiking, inflation was starting to look a bit better. February’s inflation reading of 2.4% is one of the lowest in the past five years, but it won’t stay that way with gas prices surging above $3.50 a gallon,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“A steady inflation reading would probably be a welcome data point on any other day, but against the current backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and surging oil prices, it may not carry as much weight in the markets – or with the Fed,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. 

“Despite the prospect of releasing oil reserves, continued uncertainty translates into continued upside risk for oil prices, and that translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates,” Zentner added.

What it means for the Fed

The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next monetary policy meeting next week on March 17-18, when it will announce its latest interest rate decision.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

The market’s expectations that the Fed will leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% were reinforced by the February CPI inflation report.

The probability of the Fed holding rates steady rose to 99.3%, up from 98.3% a week ago and 93.6% last month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Global oil markets showed signs of stabilizing after a sharp price spike triggered by the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

Prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel on Monday before falling back as concerns about major supply disruptions began to ease.

Before the fighting began, crude oil had been trading between $60 and $70 per barrel. Once the conflict escalated, prices quickly jumped, with crude futures rising to about $115 per barrel on Monday.

That level marked the highest price since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when energy markets experienced similar turmoil.

However, the spike did not last long. By Tuesday afternoon, crude prices had dropped again.

Global benchmark Brent crude fell roughly 8%, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined nearly 9%, Fox Business reported.

The pullback suggested that traders were beginning to see the situation as less threatening to global oil supplies than initially feared.

Early reports had warned that oil prices could soar as high as $150 per barrel because of the potential supply shock.

But as the day progressed, markets reacted to signs that emergency plans and alternative supply routes could limit disruptions.

Market analyst Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group said the first reaction was driven by panic in the market.

“But I think as the day went on into the overnight, the market realized that maybe things aren’t that bad,” Flynn said, explaining that fears of widespread supply damage began to fade as more information emerged.

Oil prices have eased since topping $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. But crude supply out of the Persian Gulf remains disrupted as the Iran war continues. Here’s what to know. https://t.co/HHumnPGo65

— Bloomberg (@business) March 10, 2026

Advertisement

Global Leaders Discuss Emergency Oil Measures

Global leaders also discussed ways to prevent a long-term oil shortage.

Officials from the Group of Seven and the International Energy Agency held talks about possibly releasing oil from emergency reserves if prices surged further.

For now, they said such a move was not needed, but they remain ready to act if the market becomes unstable.

Flynn noted that coordinated reserve releases could quickly cool prices if the situation worsens.

“We have the possibility of a coordinated release from the G7 and the IEA of oil reserves that could cool prices,” he said.

Another factor helping calm markets is the availability of alternate supply routes. According to LGM Corp, Saudi Arabia has expanded its east-to-west pipeline, which allows oil shipments to bypass the sensitive Strait of Hormuz.

The pipeline’s capacity has increased to about seven million barrels per day and could soon operate at full capacity.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration said higher oil prices could encourage producers to increase output in the coming years.

However, it noted that production changes take time because companies must first approve investments, deploy drilling rigs, and complete new wells.

Originally published on vcpost.com

Wednesday’s report offers “some reassurance” that inflation prices had not been moving in the wrong direction, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, warning that it would nonetheless be seen as “something of a historical artefact”.

Shares of IT companies will remain in focus on Wednesday after Oracle posted better than expected quarterly results, sending its shares 9% higher and pushing Wall Street up. Nuvama Wealth Management said in a note that valuations of Indian IT stocks appear attractive after the recent correction.

Oracle on Tuesday reported earnings that mostly surpassed market expectations. The company reported total revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $16.91 billion, according to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group. The company also raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 to $90 billion.

Oracle has increasingly positioned itself as a major cloud infrastructure competitor, challenging companies such as Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Amid this strategic shift, investors closely analyse the company’s earnings for signals about the broader AI and cloud computing economy. When Oracle meets or exceeds expectations, it often boosts confidence in the technology sector.

The positive sentiment driven by Oracle’s strong earnings pushed Wall Street higher in early trading hours before losing steam as investors weighed fading hopes for an earlier than expected end to the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.01%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.21%.

Also Read | Gold ETF inflows tumble 78% MoM to Rs 5,254 crore in February

Nuvama on IT services

Nuvama remained bullish on IT stocks, suggesting that the 20% correction seen since the beginning of the year due to expectations of AI led disruption in the sector following back to back AI tool launches by Anthropic has made valuations attractive.
“Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated,” Nuvama said, citing Mark Twain’s quote as perfectly explaining the current situation of the IT sector.“Given the advent and adoption of Gen AI, obituaries of the Indian IT services industry are being written all around. The concerns have been amplified by the sharp stock reactions, first with global SaaS and now with IT services companies,” it said.

The Indian IT services industry is at a crossroads again. The advent of a new technology, Gen AI, threatens to disrupt the way it has been functioning so far, thereby raising concerns about its near term growth and long term survival, Nuvama said.

It sees no existential threat from Gen AI and believes that the requirement for a system integrator, which can customise an enterprise’s plug and play software inputs and outputs as per its requirements, will always exist.

“We also note B2B adoption of any technology is very different from that of the B2C segment. Eventually, enterprises going for automation of tasks will still need someone to take ownership of the system and that will be IT services firms,” it added.

Nuvama, however, cautioned that Gen AI adoption will follow the technology adoption curve, and IT services firms will face cannibalisation of revenue in the initial phase, which they are facing currently, before reaching the inflection point.

“Following this, the opportunity will lead to an expansion of TAM (USD300 to USD400 billion by 2030, as per Infosys management). However, the companies are likely to undergo a pivot from a headcount driven to an outcome based revenue model. This will lead to lower headcount addition and lower correlation with revenue growth in coming years,” it added.

IT services model is here to stay

Nuvama believes the IT services model is here to stay and that the Gen AI disruption would only lead to bigger opportunities.

“Post the recent sharp correction, we find valuations of all stocks highly attractive,” it added.

“We see this as a deja vu moment for the industry and believe it will come out of this disruption just like earlier ones, with a net increase in its TAM. We remain positive on the sector from a medium to long term view. Near term volatility may persist,” Nuvama said.

It now has a ‘Buy’ call on all the top ten IT services stocks.

It upgraded HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Hexaware Technologies to ‘Buy’, and prefers LTIMindtree, Persistent Systems, Mphasis, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)