Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens as Oil Tops $100 a Barrel and Trump Warns Iran Over Tanker Attacks

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill and global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time in months, as attacks on commercial tankers continue to threaten one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints amid the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran.

Tanker traffic collapses under mounting attacks

Data from analytics firm Kpler showed just one tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz on July 23, compared with three the day before, as vessels increasingly reroute onto far longer paths to avoid the waterway altogether. NBC News reported that shipping through the strait had slowed to a near standstill amid escalating Iranian attacks and an ongoing U.S. naval blockade choking traffic through the passage, which under normal conditions carries roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

The latest wave of attacks has targeted vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, driving Brent crude futures above $100 a barrel for the first time since May 26, a jump of roughly 7% that brought the international benchmark to $100.69. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 6% to settle at $92.19 in the same session.

Trump threatens Iranian infrastructure

The tanker strikes on Saudi vessels came just hours after President Donald Trump warned that the United States would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every attack Tehran carries out against shipping in the strait. Iran responded with its own warning of retaliation against U.S.-linked infrastructure and energy assets across the region. An unnamed Iranian military source told the state-run Tasnim News Agency that Tehran would respond in kind, saying “Iran will, in turn, strike infrastructure and bridges in the region” if American forces targeted similar sites inside Iran.

The exchange marks an escalation in a conflict that began in late February, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping, triggering a global energy crisis that has waxed and waned through a series of ceasefires, resumed hostilities and diplomatic overtures in the months since.

A fragile interim agreement under strain

Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this month aimed at bringing their nearly four-month war to a close, but renewed attacks on tankers near the strait have repeatedly tested that fragile arrangement. After Iran struck a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker and another vessel suffered apparent damage from an unidentified projectile, the U.S. Treasury Department revoked a license that had permitted Iran to sell its previously sanctioned crude oil on the global market, a move officials described as consistent with the conditional nature of the agreement. A U.S. official characterized the revocation as consistent with the deal’s terms, noting that “the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based.”

The U.S. Central Command has continued conducting strikes aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the strait, stating on social media that the operations are “designed to continue degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

International effort to protect shipping remains unsettled

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that several countries have expressed interest in joining efforts to protect commercial vessels transiting the strait, though legal and political obstacles have so far prevented any formal commitments. “There are countries that have expressed interest,” Rubio told reporters at the ASEAN Summit in the Philippines, explaining that some governments require legislative approval before deploying naval assets, while others need authorization through an international body. Rubio also credited China with taking what he described as a constructive public stance supporting freedom of navigation through the strait, while declining to directly address questions about whether Beijing or Moscow have provided Iran with military assistance.

Mounting toll on ships and seafarers

The broader crisis has taken a significant human and material toll since fighting began. According to tracking compiled on the ongoing conflict, at least 17 merchant ships have been damaged in and around the strait, with seven abandoned by their crews and two captured outright. Twelve seafarers have been killed or gone missing, and a port worker was killed with two others wounded in a related incident in Bahrain. A tugboat has also been sunk during the crisis.

Recent incidents tracked by maritime intelligence firms have shown a pattern of vessels being struck after spending extended periods transmitting no automatic identification signals, often referred to as going “AIS-dark,” a tactic some ships have adopted in an attempt to avoid detection while transiting the dangerous waterway.

Global economic ripple effects

The disruption has pushed energy markets into sustained volatility. Beyond crude oil, related products including heating oil and gasoline have posted significant year-over-year gains, while natural gas prices have moved in the opposite direction, reflecting the uneven way the crisis has rippled through different corners of the energy sector. Some analysts have warned that a sustained blockade of the strait could push oil prices into the $100 to $150 range in a worst-case scenario, though other market forecasts have suggested prices could ease significantly if a durable de-escalation takes hold in the coming months.

With attacks continuing and both Washington and Tehran issuing new threats against each other’s infrastructure, the outlook for the strait remains highly uncertain. Diplomatic channels between the two countries remain active, but the memorandum of understanding signed earlier this month has already been tested repeatedly by continued violence on the water. For now, shipping companies, energy traders and governments around the world remain focused on one central question: whether the current cycle of strikes and countermeasures will ease in the days ahead, or whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain one of the most dangerous shipping corridors in the world for the foreseeable future.