Strait Of Hormuz Remains In ‘Lethal Stalemate’ As Iran Attacks Persist Six Months Into War

WASHINGTON — More than six months into the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in what analysts describe as a lethal stalemate, with the U.S. military continuing to escort oil tankers through the vital waterway even as Iranian attacks continue killing sailors and deterring shipping companies from the route.

The U.S. military has spent months working to protect tankers carrying Persian Gulf oil through the strait from Iranian attacks. But last week, a Saudi vessel attempting to transit the strait was struck near Oman’s coast, killing two crew members, according to The New York Times. Two other sailors died in separate attacks during August, making it the deadliest month for merchant seamen in the strait since March. At least 23 ships were struck in the waterway across July and August combined.

On Saturday, the United States struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for what American officials described as unprovoked attempts by Iran to attack two U.S. warships.

Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on conflict in the strait, said the current standoff reflects a rough balance of power between the two sides, neither of which has been able to fully impose its will on the waterway.

“The strait is neither fully closed nor fully opened,” Gholz said. “Iran can’t close it completely, and the U.S. can’t open it completely.”

The U.S. tanker protection effort, which involves intercepting Iranian drones and missiles before they reach commercial vessels, has helped move millions of barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf each day, offering some measure of relief to global oil markets. Despite that protection, however, continued Iranian attacks have deterred many shipping operators from sending vessels through the strait at all. According to a New York Times analysis of public attack records, Iran struck 12 ships in August, up slightly from 11 in July, indicating the country has managed to sustain its attack tempo even as U.S. forces have worked to intercept incoming threats. Overall volumes of oil moving through the waterway remain significantly below prewar levels, according to analysts.

The current crisis traces back to Feb. 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, prompting Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to declare the strait closed to shipping linked to the U.S., Israel or their allies, and to begin attacking merchant vessels and laying naval mines throughout the waterway. According to tracking compiled on the broader crisis, the conflict has resulted in the deaths of at least 20 seafarers and one port worker, with 35 additional people injured and one person still listed as missing.

The United States has cycled through several distinct phases of military and naval response since the war began. From April 13 to May 29, American forces maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a measure that was briefly lifted before being reinstated on July 14 following renewed attacks on commercial shipping. On Aug. 25, U.S. officials confirmed President Trump’s claim that the Navy had cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme, saying underwater drones had identified more than 100 suspected mines in recent months, which private contractors subsequently dealt with. Trump has said the U.S. will continue to destroy any Iranian vessels found laying additional mines in the strait.

Earlier in the conflict, in March, the U.S. military said it had destroyed 16 Iranian boats believed to be involved in laying naval mines in the strait, part of a broader escalation that saw the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps formally declare that any vessel belonging to the United States, Israel or an allied nation passing through the strait would be considered a “legitimate target.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described some of the military operations during that period as among the most intense rounds of strikes conducted since the war began, targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure and drone production facilities.

The economic toll of the extended disruption has been significant. Shipping through the strait, which normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas shipments, came to a near-standstill in the opening weeks of the conflict, sending global oil prices surging to levels not seen since 2022. At one point in March, Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel, with the International Energy Agency describing the disruption at the time as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market.

President Trump has repeatedly called on other nations with a stake in Gulf shipping to contribute their own naval assets to help secure the strait. In one Truth Social post issued in March, Trump urged countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to send ships to help secure the waterway, while asserting that the U.S. would continue bombing Iran’s coastline and targeting Iranian vessels directly. That same month, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin formally escorting tankers through the strait, a commitment that has continued in various forms through the present, even as the underlying attacks on shipping have persisted.

Some analysts have suggested that fully reopening the strait to normal commercial traffic may ultimately require an even more dramatic military escalation, including a potential ground operation targeting the stretch of Iranian coastline directly adjacent to the waterway, though no such operation has been publicly confirmed or announced by U.S. officials to date.

With the conflict now well into its seventh month and continuing to produce a steady drumbeat of attacks on commercial shipping despite sustained American naval protection efforts, the Strait of Hormuz appears likely to remain in the kind of unresolved, partially functional state Gholz and other analysts have described, one in which neither Iran’s efforts to close the waterway nor the United States’ efforts to fully secure it have proven decisive. For shipping companies and the sailors who continue to crew the tankers still willing to attempt the transit, that stalemate has translated directly into continued danger, even as the broader flow of Persian Gulf oil, though diminished, has not been entirely severed.