Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Climbs Sharply, but It Remains Well Below Prewar Shipping Levels

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose more than 30% over the past week, according to new maritime tracking data, marking a notable improvement even as shipping through the critical energy chokepoint remains far below levels seen before the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began six months ago.

There were 114 transits through the strait between Aug. 17 and Sunday, up from 87 the previous week, according to figures from Lloyd’s List Intelligence cited by USNI News. The increase was driven mostly by tankers and gas carriers, with at least 42 westbound transits into the strait recorded during the latest window, compared with 29 the week before. Lloyd’s data showed the ships tracked included crude tankers operated by Sinokor, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and its subsidiary Adnoc, as well as vessels owned by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Even with the increase, the numbers remain a fraction of pre-war activity. Before the conflict began Feb. 28, roughly 100 vessels passed through the strait daily, according to shipping data compiled by CNN using figures from the analytics firm Kpler. As of Aug. 18, 172 days into the war, a total of 3,456 vessels had crossed the strait since fighting began, reflecting the extended disruption to what is normally one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors for oil and liquefied natural gas.

The Strait of Hormuz has been at the center of the broader conflict since the United States and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran in late February, an operation that included the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by attacking shipping it deemed noncompliant with its demands, laying sea mines in the waterway, and at various points effectively shutting the strait to commercial traffic altogether. According to the Congressional Research Service, roughly 25% of the world’s maritime trade in crude oil and petroleum products, along with about 19% of global liquefied natural gas shipments, normally passed through the strait before the war.

The conflict has moved through several distinct phases in the months since. The United States and Iran reached a ceasefire in April and signed a memorandum of understanding in June that included commitments from Iran to make its best efforts toward ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels. That arrangement broke down in July, when Iranian forces resumed attacks on ships they viewed as violating their transit demands, reigniting hostilities that have continued into the current month.

Iran and Oman have spent recent weeks negotiating a proposed framework for a temporary shipping corridor through the strait, with regional officials describing an outline of the plan as recently as Aug. 25, according to CNN’s reporting. Iranian officials have said any agreement remains contingent on further concessions from the United States, including what Tehran has described as a return to the terms of the June memorandum, and Iranian state media reported that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, traveled to Tehran this week to help open space for renewed negotiations between Iran and Washington.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the strait is effectively open despite the disrupted shipping data, telling reporters at one point that mines in the waterway have all been cleared or detonated and warning that any new Iranian mine-laying attempts would be met with force. Iranian officials, meanwhile, have continued to issue their own warnings. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, said this week that vessels violating Iran’s transit rules could face penalties including detention or confiscation, and separately threatened to halt oil flow through the strait entirely if neighboring Gulf states cooperate with a renewed U.S. economic pressure campaign against Tehran.

Attacks on individual vessels have continued intermittently even as overall traffic edges upward. An unidentified tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait on Aug. 25, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward, though the resulting fire was extinguished and the crew was reported safe, with no responsibility for the strike claimed by any party. Separately, the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said two of its vessels were attacked while transiting the strait earlier this month, though the company reported no injuries and did not identify who was behind that incident.

The prolonged disruption has had wide-reaching economic consequences well beyond the Gulf region. U.S. gas prices have remained sharply elevated compared with a year earlier, with the American Automobile Association noting that this August could rank among the most expensive on record for the month. The International Energy Agency has separately warned that global oil stockpiles are being drawn down at a rapid pace as the strait remains a bottleneck, even as oil prices themselves have fluctuated based on shifting expectations about the war’s trajectory rather than steadily rising alongside supply concerns.

As talks between Iran, Oman and the United States continue without a clear resolution, shipping through the strait is likely to remain volatile, according to maritime analysts tracking the situation, with vessel operators increasingly relying on tactics such as disabling automatic tracking transponders and rerouting through alternate anchorages to reduce the risk of attack while still moving cargo through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.