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Strong growth and subdued inflation keep India in sweet spot: Aurodeep Nandi

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Strong growth and subdued inflation keep India in sweet spot: Aurodeep Nandi
At a time when much of the global economy is grappling with uncertainty, India appears to be enjoying a rare alignment of strong growth and subdued inflation. In a conversation with ET Now, Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist, Nomura laid out why he believes the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive — even as debates continue around rates, the rupee, and inflation risks.

“India is in this situation where growth has surprised on the upside. So, the first half of the year growth has approximately been around 8% and inflation has been pretty low. Food inflation has come off quite a lot and also core inflation which is ex food and fuel has been low for now a couple of years.”

According to Nandi, the headwinds that weighed on the economy through 2024 and 2025 are now tapering off. With trade disruptions easing, wage growth expected to improve, and capital expenditure staying firm — particularly from states — the ingredients for sustained expansion appear to be in place.

He also underscored the policy environment. “Let us not forget that 2025 has been a year where there has been a lot of policy easing on the regulatory side, from RBI‘s perspective, even the budget has basically been pro-growth as opposed to pro-fiscal consolidation. So, the conditions are pretty good for growth.”

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On inflation, the outlook remains constructive, provided monsoons behave. “We do not see major inflationary risks if we have decent monsoons and given that the core drivers behind lower underlying inflation still remain pretty much in place.”


Nomura expects GDP growth at 7.5% in FY26 and 7.1% in FY27, with inflation hovering around 4%. “So, yes, pretty much goldilocks continued.”
Bridging the FY26 Gap
When asked about the divergence between projections and official estimates, Nandi clarified, “So, our FY26 projection is 7.5%.”
He pointed to a combination of factors driving momentum in the current quarter. “The GST cut plus festive demand quarter means that a lot of consumption-related indicators have picked up in the last quarter. We also have urban wage growth picking up which we see in company results. Companies themselves have registered an increase in profit growth.”

Capital expenditure, particularly at the state level, remains supportive. A technical factor is also at play. “One of the reasons why real growth has been high in the last two quarters has been that the GDP deflator has also been low… GDP deflator is expected to fall further in this quarter.”

Taken together, these dynamics lead to an expectation of 7.7% GDP growth in Q3, compared with 8.2% in the previous quarter.

The Rate Cut Debate
With inflation cooling and growth resilient, the Monetary Policy Committee faces a delicate balancing act.

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Nandi’s baseline view is clear: “Our baseline view is no more cuts.”

Yet he acknowledges the counterargument. “If you are achieving seven-percent-ish growth with low inflation, then the question is should you achieve a bit more by cutting rates further.”

He believes the Reserve Bank of India has room to act if needed. “RBI certainly has the bullets for a rate cut. There is nothing that should constrain the RBI at this point. The question is the application.”

For now, however, Nomura has stepped back from its earlier expectation of one more 25 basis point cut. “We earlier had one more 25 basis point cut but just given the way Indian macro situation is shifting, we have taken away that cut. So, currently we are at policy hold but… there is a risk of another cut.”

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Rupee: Stability or More Volatility?
The rupee has seen bouts of volatility, though recent weeks have brought some calm. Nandi remains cautious.

“Our house forecast is rupee at around 90 level by the end of the calendar year.”

Trade tensions have eased from earlier extremes, but capital flows will be key. “If you have net FDI flows starting to recover and if you have the foreign portfolio money coming back, then probably you would have some support to the rupee.”

However, even inflows may not translate into full appreciation. “If foreign flows do come in and there is an appreciating pressure on the rupee, the RBI could say, hey, wait a minute, this is a great time for me to build up my reserves. So, you may not see that entire appreciation reflect in the market price.”

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For now, he describes conditions as incrementally improving — though volatility remains part of the story.

Oil, Geopolitics and Inflation Risks
With geopolitical tensions simmering and oil prices volatile, the risk to inflation is under scrutiny. Nandi offered a nuanced view.

“The way oil price hits the economy is higher crude oil prices lead to higher petrol and diesel prices which then impacts inflation to the extent of the weight of petrol and diesel.”

But transmission may not be immediate. “Petrol, diesel prices in India have been constant for years now… If my pump price remains constant, then it does not really matter where crude oil price is up or down.”

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Beyond oil, structural factors may be keeping inflation anchored. “We have a widening trade deficit with China, so a lot of cheap Chinese imports are coming into the market. There is also the case where you have digitisation, you have investment in infrastructure, so you have supply-side interventions also coming from the government.”

While base effects could cause temporary fluctuations, the broader trend appears stable. “It seems for now that inflation is broadly under control… as of now underlying inflation seems anchored at around 4%.”

In sum, India’s macro narrative remains one of resilience — strong growth, manageable inflation, and policy flexibility. Whether this “goldilocks” balance sustains over the next year will hinge on monsoons, global flows, and the fine calibration of monetary policy.

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A Deep Dive Into Workplace Psychology

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A Deep Dive Into Workplace Psychology

In their most simple forms, expense policies are designed to control costs, ensure fairness and reduce financial risk. On paper, most organisations already have these documents in place, often reviewed annually and signed off by finance and HR teams. In theory, they should provide clarity and consistency.

In practice, however, many expense policies fail to deliver the control they promised at the offset. Spend becomes unpredictable, enforcement slips into inconsistency, and finance teams are left responding to problems rather than preventing them.

It’s easy to assume that this failure stems from careless or dishonest employees. Humans are, after all, only human. In most cases, however, expense-related issues are far more likely to be the result of policies built around assumptions that do not reflect how people actually think, decide, and behave in real working environments.

To understand why expense policies break down, we need to look beyond the documents themselves, and examine the psychological and social forces shaping everyday spending decisions at work. That’s quite a hefty task, so we’ve parachuted in the aid of expense management software specialists at Webexpenses to assist with exploring this topic further.

Flawed assumptions lead to flawed systems

Most company policies are written for a hypothetical, “best-case” employee: rational, attentive, well-rested, and operating in a low-pressure environment. They assume employees will read the rules carefully, remember them, and apply them consistently at the point of purchase.

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As appealing as this assumption may be, it bears little resemblance to how real workplaces operate. Expense decisions are frequently made at the end of long days, during travel, or between meetings, when time and attention are limited. By the time an expense is submitted, the decision has already been made – often quickly, with incomplete information and little cognitive bandwidth.

Behavioural economics describes this pattern as bounded rationality. When mental resources are constrained, people simplify decisions rather than optimise them. They rely on habits, prior approvals, and social cues instead of consulting formal policy documents. The gap between assumption and reality is reflected in the data.

From a governance perspective, this is important because expense policies aren’t operating in isolation. Instead, they’re competing with faster, more intuitive decision-making processes that often win.

Vaguery creates fragmentation, not flexibility

Many expense policies hinge on terms such as “reasonable”, “appropriate”, or “within limits”. These “legalese” buzzwords are intended to provide flexibility, but in reality, they invite ambiguity. Ambiguity forces interpretation, and interpretation is shaped by context rather than policy wording.

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When boundaries are unclear, employees will start looking for guidance elsewhere: what their manager approved previously, what colleagues typically submit, or what appears acceptable within their team. Phrases like “I just submit it like this” override the written rule.

Over time, these informal cues become the “street” rules your employees – both old and new – will follow. Your policy documents may say one thing, but in the face of ambiguity, different teams will inevitably develop different interpretations of the same rules, influenced by culture, seniority, and precedent.

For finance teams, this fragmentation has tangible consequences. Inconsistent interpretation makes spending harder to forecast, harder to benchmark across departments and harder to challenge without appearing arbitrary. In plain terms, ambiguity does not allow for flexibility, and it does not reduce disputes; it simply pushes them downstream, after the money has already been spent.

Social pressure outweighs financial rules

Expense decisions are rarely confined to the consistent sphere of cold, mathematical calculations – emotions and social elements also play a part.

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Choices around travel, accommodation, and client entertainment are tied to perceptions of professionalism, competence, and status. In many roles, particularly client-facing ones, employees feel pressure to meet (or exceed) unspoken benchmarks about what is “appropriate” for the situation. People use money to signal competence, generosity, seniority, or professionalism – especially around clients and travel.

Being forced to book the cheapest option can lead employees to feel as though they’re undervalued. If they have the ability to apply upgrades, this can be done with a sense of feeling like they’ve earned the right. Picking a nicer venue for a client lunch may be justified as “representing the brand” in the best possible light.

When expense policies fail to acknowledge these social dynamics, employees are left balancing formal rules against informal expectations. In these moments, the immediate risk of appearing unprofessional or out of step can feel more pressing than the abstract risk of breaching policy.

This dynamic shows up in reported behaviour. Surveys indicate that nearly one in four employees admit to having misreported or bent an expense claim, while broader reviews of improper claims suggest that around 13% involve deliberate reimbursement irregularities, often in socially sensitive categories such as travel and entertainment.

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It might be easy to boil this down to opportunistic and dishonest behaviours, and while that may be the driving factor behind a small number of cases, it’s not typically the underlying issue.

Inconsistent enforcement undermines policy legitimacy

Even well-designed policies struggle when enforcement is unpredictable.

If similar claims receive different outcomes depending on who approves them, employees quickly conclude that the system is inconsistent. Once that perception takes hold, behaviour changes; claims become more defensive, more heavily justified, or disengaged altogether.

Reimbursement delays compound this effect, and when employees are regularly left out of pocket, expense processes stop feeling administrative and start feeling adversarial.

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From a governance standpoint, trust functions as an informal control mechanism. When employees believe the system is fair and predictable, they are more likely to self-regulate. When trust erodes, formal rules lose authority and administrative costs increase.

Policies fall behind modern working practices

Many expense policies fail not because they are ignored, but because they are outdated.

Hybrid working, remote travel, and digital-first transactions have introduced new scenarios that older policy frameworks were never designed to address. Grey areas multiply, and employees are forced to rely on judgement rather than guidance.

At the same time, technological change has reshaped the risk landscape. Digital documentation and AI-generated receipts have made manual verification less reliable. In 2025, industry reporting found that AI-generated fake receipts accounted for around 14% of flagged fraudulent documentation, a rapid shift that legacy control processes were not built to handle.

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In this context, policy failure is often a matter of misalignment rather than misconduct. Controls that do not reflect how work is actually done lose relevance, and relevance is a prerequisite for compliance.

Adding more rules often makes things worse

When expense issues arise, the instinctive response is to tighten control: more rules, more exceptions, more detailed guidance. While understandable, this approach often backfires.

Long, complex policies increase cognitive load. Faced with dense documentation, employees are less likely to consult it in real time. Instead, they rely on memory, precedent, or judgement. Attempts to cover every edge case can make everyday decisions harder rather than clearer.

Effective policies focus on clarity where it matters most: common scenarios, clear examples, and predictable outcomes. Simplicity, in this context, is not a lack of rigour but a deliberate design choice.

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What makes an expense policy effective?

Expense policies work best when they are designed around real – rather than idealised – behaviour. This means recognising cognitive limits, social pressures, and the realities of modern working environments.

Clear examples outperform abstract rules, consistent enforcement builds legitimacy, and predictable reimbursement reinforces trust. Systems that support judgement, rather than relying solely on manual oversight, reduce friction and error.

Ultimately, expense policies are not just financial controls. They are signals about how an organisation balances trust, accountability, and practicality. When they align with how people actually operate, they become effective tools for cost control. When they do not, they risk becoming well-written documents that fail quietly in practice.

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eBay slashes 800 jobs representing 6% of workforce after $1.2 billion Depop acquisition

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eBay slashes 800 jobs representing 6% of workforce after $1.2 billion Depop acquisition

E-commerce giant eBay announced Thursday it is slashing hundreds of jobs, just days after the company dropped $1.2 billion in cash to acquire a trendy Gen Z fashion app and settled a federal stalking lawsuit involving former executives.

Multiple outlets have reported that eBay will cut a total of 800 roles, or 6% of its workforce, as company documents indicated about 12,300 employees worldwide as of Dec. 31, 2025.

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eBay did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

HOME DEPOT CUTS 800 JOBS, ORDERS CORPORATE STAFF BACK TO OFFICE FULL TIME

The company told Reuters, “We are taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities, which will affect certain roles across our workforce.”

eBay pop-up store in Los Angeles

A view of the eBay pop-up store is seen on Sept. 20, 2025, in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images)

Just hours before the layoff news, eBay settled a civil lawsuit against the couple and newsletter writers David and Ina Steiner. Reuters detailed how former employees sent the Steiners live cockroaches, spiders, a funeral wreath and a bloody pig mask to allegedly silence their reporting.

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Former eBay executives were sentenced to prison in 2022, and this week’s settlement was reached for an undisclosed amount.

Earlier this month, eBay made headlines for its acquisition of Depop — a customer-to-customer fashion marketplace popular with Gen Z and millennials looking to sell used clothing and accessories. eBay purchased the platform for approximately $1.2 billion in cash.

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Depop’s user base is 90% under age 34, according to a press release, meaning eBay is positioning itself to reach younger consumers who have largely moved away from the traditional auction model.

“Fashion represents more than $10 billion in annual gross merchandise volume (GMV) for eBay and delivered 10% year-over-year GMV growth in the U.S. in 2025,” CEO Jamie Iannone said in a statement. “This acquisition presents an opportunity to advance one of our newest and fastest-growing Focus Categories with a marketplace that complements our existing presence, and enables us to reach a younger demographic across the expanding recommerce landscape.”

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Mark My Words February 27 2026

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Mark My Words February 27 2026

Mark Pownall and Tom Zaunmayr discuss Sussan Ley’s exit, Wittenoom legal case, Fortescue’s wind farms Laurence Escalante, and apartments in Mount Hawthorn.

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MBIA Inc. (MBI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Welcome to the MBIA Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA. Sir, please go ahead.

Greg Diamond
MD and Head of Investor & Media Relations

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Thank you, Chelsea, and welcome to our conference call for the full year 2025 MBIA Financial results. After the market closed yesterday, we issued and posted several items on our websites, including our financial results, 10-K, quarterly operating supplement and statutory financial statements for both MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. We also posted updates to the listings of our insurance company’s insurance portfolios. Regarding today’s call, please note that anything said on the call is qualified by the information provided by the company’s 10-K and other SEC filings as our company’s definitive disclosures are incorporated in those documents. We urge investors to read our 10-K as it contains our most current disclosures about the company and its financial and operating results.

The 10-K also contains information that may not be addressed on today’s call. The definitions and reconciliations of the non-GAAP terms included in our remarks today are also included in our 10-K as well as our financial results report and our quarterly operating supplement. The recorded replay of today’s call will become available approximately 2 hours after the end of the call. Now for our safe

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Saudi Aramco bringing shale gas revolution to Arabian Desert

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Saudi Aramco bringing shale gas revolution to Arabian Desert


Saudi Aramco bringing shale gas revolution to Arabian Desert

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Mondelez CEO worries high cocoa prices may return

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Mondelez CEO worries high cocoa prices may return

Company is investing in diversifying cocoa production around the world. 

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Revenues rise sharply at Leeds Building Society

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The building society said that it increased both savings and mortgage balances during 2025

Leeds Building Society says stress-testing requirements have unduly held some borrowers back.

Leeds Building Society has revisited its mortgage affordability assessments following guidance from the FCA.(Image: Taken from the Leeds Building Society image library. https://www.leedsbuildingsociety.co.uk/press/im)

Profits fell slightly at Leeds Building Society even as its revenues grew to nearly £800m.

The society’s annual reports show an increase in total income to £794 during 2025. But over the same period, net profit fell slightly to stand at £275.5m.

The society said it supported its members through favourable savings rates, which helped increase savings balances by £1.1bn year on year to £54.0bn. Mortgage balances also grew to £51.9bn, the annual report revealed.

Bosses said they were make progress on a number of strategic targets, including a record investment in technology and systems to improve speed of inbound payments.

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It said it was committed to its branch network and its role in local communities included an ongoing partnership with the charity FareShare, plus hosting Citizens Advice advisers at 44 of its branches to provide financial and legal advice.

Chief executive Susan Allen said: “Yorkshire Building Society delivered a solid performance for the year ending December 2025, growing our mortgage and savings balances sustainably and sharpening our Purpose, Real Help with Real Life, to set a clear path for the future.

“We continued to provide our members with above market average savings rates and went further to make good homes possible for more people. We launched targeted, innovative products to help overcome the challenges people face in finding a good home and building financial wellbeing. With economic challenges likely to remain in 2026, our renewed Purpose – and the support we offer our customers and communities as one of the UK’s biggest mutuals – matters more than ever.”

Looking ahead, the society said it would continue its focus on its strategic priorities, delivering competitive products and services for its members, and maintaining its financial strength.

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It said that it expected high levels of competition in mortgages and savings to persist but that it had “confidence in our business model and financial resilience and are well placed to navigate future challenges or periods of economic uncertainty.”

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Arhaus, Inc. 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:ARHS) 2026-02-27

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q4: 2026-02-26 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.11 beats by $0.02

 | Revenue of $364.85M (5.14% Y/Y) beats by $13.32M

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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California Resources set to report earnings ahead of merger close

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California Resources set to report earnings ahead of merger close

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Sunstone Hotel Investors earnings beat by $0.04, revenue topped estimates

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Sunstone Hotel Investors earnings beat by $0.04, revenue topped estimates

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