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Thailand Braces for Economic Ripples as Middle East Conflict Escalates

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Thailand Braces for Economic Ripples as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Bangkok, March 2, 2026 – As tensions in the Middle East reach a boiling point with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile attacks across the Gulf, Thailand finds itself on the frontline of indirect economic fallout. Despite being thousands of kilometers away, the Kingdom’s heavy reliance on imported oil, global trade, and tourism exposes it to surging energy prices, market volatility, and supply chain disruptions. With the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil—at risk, experts warn of potential shortages and inflationary pressures that could derail Thailand’s fragile post-pandemic recovery.

Energy Security: The 60-Day Buffer

The Ministry of Energy has declared a state of “total security,” implementing a ban on all petroleum exports to prioritize domestic stockpiles.

  • The Reserve Status: As of today, Thailand holds 7,660 million liters of crude and refined oil—sufficient for 60 days of domestic consumption. This includes 22 days of stock currently in transit, much of which has already cleared the critical Strait of Hormuz.
  • The Price “Risk Point”: While the National Fuel Fund is currently being used to stabilize pump prices, officials have flagged Wednesday, March 4, as a critical tipping point. If global diesel prices break the $100 per barrel mark, retail price hikes in Thailand may become unavoidable.
  • Power Contingency: In a strategic shift, coal-fired and hydroelectric plants have been ordered to maximum capacity to reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which fuels 60% of Thailand’s electricity.

Trade & Exports: Navigating the “War Surcharge”

The Ministry of Commerce has mobilized 58 Thai Trade Centers worldwide to conduct daily risk assessments. While the Middle East is a high-growth market for Thai goods, the immediate threat is logistical.

  • Shipping & Insurance: Freight rates and maritime insurance premiums are expected to spike. The government is coordinating with state financial institutions to provide liquidity support for exporters facing these rising costs.
  • Export Exposure: Canned fruits, rubber products, and automotive parts are the most vulnerable sectors. In response, Thailand is accelerating a pivot toward “safe-haven” markets in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Tourism: Sentiment vs. Safety

While Thailand remains a geographically distant “safe haven,” the aviation sector is feeling the pressure of a shifting “War Economy.”

  • Rerouted Airways: Thai Airways and other carriers are bypassing Middle Eastern conflict zones, leading to longer flight times and higher fuel surcharges on European routes.
  • Market Shift: High-spending tourists from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and Israel—who spend an average of 100,000 THB per trip—are seeing significant travel disruptions. Tourism authorities are now monitoring “sentiment shifts” as travelers reconsider long-haul trips amid global instability.

Labor & Humanitarian Response

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has prioritized the safety of the 77,000+ Thai workers currently in the region, primarily in Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

  • Evacuation Readiness: The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) has put its Airbus A319/A320 and C-130 Hercules fleet on standby.
  • The Tehran Corridor: A primary evacuation route has been established through India (Indira Gandhi International) to extract the approximately 300 Thai nationals currently in Iran.

Strategic Outlook: Thailand’s Economic Defense

Sector Key Risk Government Response
Energy Strait of Hormuz closure 60-day reserve; Export ban; Coal/Hydro max output
Trade Freight & Insurance spikes Liquidity support; Market diversification (South Asia/Africa)
Currency Baht volatility Bank of Thailand monitoring “safe-haven” capital flows
Tourism Airspace closures Rerouting flights; Focus on APAC regional markets

Energy Sector Under Pressure

Thailand, as a net oil importer heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East, faces heightened vulnerability to the ongoing conflict’s impact on global crude prices. Brent crude has already surged to the $90-$100 per barrel range due to fears of supply disruptions, with diesel prices likely to follow suit. Domestic fuel costs are expected to rise sharply, with a significant increase anticipated around March 4, further straining household and business budgets.If the conflict persists, electricity and cooking gas (LPG) expenses may also climb, contributing to broader inflationary pressures.

Despite this, the government maintains a modest 2026 inflation forecast of 0.3%, relying on measures such as 61 days of oil reserves and the Oil Fuel Fund’s capacity to mitigate price volatility.Additionally, LNG imports are set to increase to 13 million tonnes this year, up from 10 million tonnes previously, offering some diversification and reducing reliance on oil-based energy sources.

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has raised concerns that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact Thailand’s oil imports, resulting in rapid depletion, potential shortages, and prolonged high costs.

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Tourism and Air Travel Chaos

The conflict has triggered mass airspace closures, resulting in 9,600 flight delays and cancellations worldwide.

Thailand’s tourism sector, still in recovery and heavily reliant on high-spending visitors from the Middle East, faces challenges ahead. Airport closures and rising ticket prices may discourage travelers from Israel and Gulf states, resulting in revenue losses. On a brighter note, some tourists might opt for safer destinations like Thailand, but the overall short-term impact is expected to be negative.

Financial Markets

Volatility and Safe Havens Geopolitical jitters are shattering hopes for global rate cuts, with oil prices elevated, equity markets tumbling, and currencies under strain. The Thai baht faces depreciation risks from capital outflows, while gold surges as a safe haven. Meanwhile, central banks are grappling with the challenge of balancing inflation control and economic growth, as uncertainty clouds future monetary policies. Investors are closely watching developments, seeking stability in assets like U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen, which have traditionally been viewed as secure during turbulent times.

Thailand is currently better prepared for an energy shock than in previous crises due to its robust fuel fund and strategic reserves. However, the prolonged nature of this conflict could test the limits of these buffers by mid-April.

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Sacramento Kings Rookie Guard’s Rise from Colorado to NBA Breakout

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Nique Clifford

Sacramento Kings rookie guard Nique Clifford delivered a career-high 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting in a March 1, 2026, loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, continuing a strong recent stretch that has fans and analysts buzzing about his potential despite the team’s struggles. The 24-year-old, drafted 24th overall in 2025, has emerged as a reliable contributor amid injuries and a rebuilding phase for the 14-47 Kings.

Nique Clifford
Nique Clifford

Clifford’s latest performance—adding seven rebounds and four assists—capped a week that included a near triple-double (13 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) in a win over the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 26. Over his past seven games, mostly as a starter, he averaged 11.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.5 threes in 31.6 minutes per contest.

Here are 10 essential facts about Clifford, whose journey from high school standout to NBA rookie highlights perseverance, versatility and late-blooming talent.

1. **Born Dominique Akai Clifford on February 9, 2002, in Colorado Springs, Colorado.** At 24 years old (turning 24 in February 2026), Clifford is older than most rookies due to a full college career. His first name is pronounced “NEEK,” and his middle name “Akai” reflects family heritage. He grew up as an only child to parents Akai and Angelique Clifford.

2. **High school star at The Vanguard School in Colorado Springs.** Clifford earned Colorado Gatorade Player of the Year honors as a senior in 2020, averaging 26.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 2.8 blocks per game. The multi-talented athlete helped lead his team to success while showcasing the rebounding and defensive instincts that define his game today.

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3. **Began college career at the University of Colorado Buffaloes (2020-2023).** Clifford played three seasons in Boulder, appearing in 82 games with 50 starts. He averaged 5.4 points and 3.6 rebounds overall, contributing to one NCAA Tournament appearance and two NIT berths. Highlights included a 17-point game against Oregon and a double-double versus Utah.

4. **Transferred to Colorado State for senior year explosion (2023-2024).** In his fifth and final college season, Clifford started all 36 games, averaging 18.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 49.6% from the field and 37.7% from three. He earned third-team All-Mountain West honors and helped the Rams to an NCAA Tournament upset win over Memphis.

5. **Drafted 24th overall by Oklahoma City Thunder in 2025, traded to Sacramento Kings.** On draft night, the Kings acquired his rights in exchange for a protected 2027 first-round pick. He signed a two-year, $6.37 million rookie contract with a team option for 2027-28, joining a crowded wing rotation featuring DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray.

6. **Versatile 6-foot-5, 175-pound wing known for rebounding and defense.** Clifford excels as a rebounder for his size—leading Colorado State in rebounds and ranking high nationally in defensive boards. His ability to defend multiple positions, facilitate as a secondary playmaker and score efficiently has helped him earn minutes despite limited elite athletic traits.

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7. **Current NBA stats (2025-26 season):** Through 57 games (11 starts), Clifford averages 6.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks in 22.2 minutes. He shoots 39.7% from the field, 31.8% from three and 72.6% from the free-throw line. His recent surge shows growth in confidence and production.

8. **Recent breakout performances highlight upside.** Clifford’s 26-point night against the Lakers on March 1 followed strong showings like 15 points and four steals versus Houston. Analysts, including podcaster Matt George, note he’s “starting to figure things out,” praising his energy, rebounding and complementary skills in limited roles.

9. **Active on social media with motivational presence.** Under @otn_nique on Instagram (25,000 followers), Clifford shares updates from games, All-Star Weekend and personal insights. His bio includes “Prove em wrong,” references to the 719 area code (Colorado Springs), his agency and Colorado State, plus a faith symbol reflecting his values.

10. **Offers hope for Kings’ future amid tough season.** With Sacramento far from playoff contention, Clifford’s emergence provides optimism. Injuries to Murray and Westbrook have opened starting opportunities, where he averages 9.2 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists. Fantasy experts monitor him closely as a waiver-wire add for defense and efficiency.

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Clifford’s path—from Colorado high school dominance to college transfer success to NBA contributor—embodies late-blooming potential. Named after NBA legend Dominique Wilkins, he continues proving skeptics wrong with versatile, high-motor play. As the Kings navigate the remainder of 2025-26, Clifford’s recent confidence surge suggests he could become a key piece moving forward.

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Oil Companies Warned Against Raising Petrol Prices Amid Middle East Conflict

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Oil tanker
Oil tanker
Jason Mitrione / Unsplash

A spokesperson from the NRMA has warned oil companies not to jack up petrol prices amid the conflict in the Middle East.

The concern over the supply of petrol comes as the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through, remains closed.

NRMA Warns Oil Companies

According to 9News, NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury warned oil companies not to impose higher prices prematurely, stressing that the conflict in the Middle East should not be an excuse to “jack up prices.”

“We will be watching that closely,” Khoury stressed.

It should be noted that the spokesperson said that oil prices are indeed set to rise by 10 per cent initially, according to 9News.

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Khoury, however, that the impact on petrol prices in the country shouldn’t be felt for at least a week.

Strait of Hormuz

As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran continue, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran.

According to the BBC, global oil prices have gone up after at least three ships have been attack at the Strait of Hormuz. These ships are reportedly from the US and the United Kingdom.

Iran has warned ships from passing through the strait. BBC noted, however, that some ships from Iran and China have been allowed passage.

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In response to concerns over the supply of oil, the Opec+ group of oil producing nations has agreed to increase their output by 206,000 barrels a day. However, some experts believe that this will not be of much help.

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Russian manufacturing sector contracts at slower pace in February, PMI shows

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Russian manufacturing sector contracts at slower pace in February, PMI shows


Russian manufacturing sector contracts at slower pace in February, PMI shows

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Global markets show resilience amid Middle East tensions: Matt Orton

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Global markets show resilience amid Middle East tensions: Matt Orton
Despite rising tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, global markets opened this week without the sharp declines many had feared. Analysts say investors had largely anticipated the escalation, limiting panic reactions.

Matt Orton from Raymond James Investment, noted that while there was a negative reaction to the news, it was more benign than expected. “Investors had been prepared for some hostilities given recent US-Iran negotiations. Crude prices have eased from the worst jumps, and some Asian futures are recovering. The key question is what happens to the Strait of Hormuz, which will guide energy prices over the next weeks.”

On commodities, Orton explained that markets had already priced in much of the risk. “Gold is well bid and crude already includes a $10 per barrel premium. There isn’t much room to rise unless more disruptions occur, but US naval presence may limit duration,” he said.

The strategist also weighed in on the recent US clampdown on AI company Anthropic, which has raised questions about returns on AI investments. “Anthropic’s Claude code is powerful, but the market faces two narratives: money spent on AI may not yield ROI soon, yet AI is rapidly being implemented. Investors must weigh where the trade goes. For now, I focus on companies benefiting from AI integration and capex spend,” Orton said.

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Looking at India, Orton highlighted the country’s attractiveness for global investors. “India has low correlation with the S&P 500. Even amid global risk-off scenarios, India performed well in 2022 and 2023. Being selective is key, but high-quality investments exist in India and globally, regardless of geopolitical tensions,” he explained.


As the week unfolds, market watchers will continue monitoring crude prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and investor sentiment. For now, careful preparation appears to have helped global markets weather the first shocks of geopolitical tension.

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Toyota Raises Offer Price For Toyota Industries To $132 Per Share

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Toyota Raises Offer Price For Toyota Industries To $132 Per Share

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Middle East Escalation Leaves Significant Upside For Oil And Gas Markets

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Middle East Escalation Leaves Significant Upside For Oil And Gas Markets

Middle East Escalation Leaves Significant Upside For Oil And Gas Markets

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Pakistan Manufacturing Sector Sees Record Job Growth in February

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Pakistan Manufacturing Sector Sees Record Job Growth in February

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Treasury bonds, dollar remain reliable safe havens in crisis: Peter Cardillo

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Treasury bonds, dollar remain reliable safe havens in crisis: Peter Cardillo
Global markets opened the week on a cautious note after geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend, with investors recalibrating risk across equities, currencies and commodities. Early Asian trade reflected a clear risk-off tone, with Japanese markets under pressure and safe-haven assets attracting renewed demand.

The key question confronting investors is whether markets had already priced in the possibility of military escalation — or whether further volatility lies ahead.

Peter Cardillo, from Spartan Capital Securities, addressed the traditional safe-haven narrative surrounding the U.S. dollar and broader market implications.

“Well, let me first address your guest thinking about going into the dollar as a safe haven; that has always been the case, and the reason for that is because we are the reserve currency and we are the largest economy in the world. Presently, in terms of GDP growth, we are the leaders among the seven industrial nations. So yes, traditional hedges such as gold and silver obviously are the true hedges, but the dollar is considered one, just like Treasury bonds. If you look at what is happening in Treasury bonds, they are moving lower. Why? We are seeing foreign buying coming into the markets as a safe haven. So yes, the dollar in times of crisis is a safe haven.”

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Early currency and bond market moves reflected that logic. The greenback firmed as investors sought liquidity and relative safety, while U.S. Treasury yields edged lower amid foreign inflows — a classic flight-to-quality pattern.


Oil’s Shock Trade
The more immediate and potentially disruptive impact is unfolding in the energy markets.
Cardillo explained that the initial market reaction in oil tends to be driven by positioning and uncertainty rather than fundamentals alone.
“Now, in terms of what this means for oil prices, obviously the initial trade is always that shock trade. So you have a combination of three things happening. One, the shorts running for cover. Second, you have the unknown of where prices may reach and finally stabilise at. And third, it is true that Iran produces 3%. But let us take a step backwards and look back at what happened in the 70s when the Strait of Hormuz was closed. It caused disruption, and that is what this is all about.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point. Roughly one-fifth of global energy trade passes through the narrow waterway. Even a temporary disruption could have outsized ripple effects across supply chains and inflation expectations.

Cardillo pointed to the potential duration of the military operation as the critical variable.

“So, the real emphasis here is how long will this operation last. I was reading just a minute ago that flashed across your board there, and it said that President Trump said it might last for four weeks. Well, if it lasts for four weeks and the price of oil goes to $100, that is going to be significant because you can rest assured that gasoline prices throughout the world will spike and will be inflationary, even though probably a temporary factor.”

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A sustained move toward $100 per barrel would likely complicate the global disinflation narrative that central banks have been cautiously embracing in recent months. Higher fuel costs tend to filter quickly into transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices.

India and China in a Strategic Bind
For energy-importing nations, especially in Asia, the stakes are considerably higher.

The Strait of Hormuz shutting down for a longer period would choke at least one-fifth of the world’s total energy trade. For India, an estimated 45% to 50% of crude oil imports move through the Strait, along with roughly 60% of natural gas and energy shipments. That creates a significant dilemma: turning to cheaper Russian oil may appear economically attractive, but it risks straining trade and diplomatic ties with the United States.

Cardillo acknowledged that Asian economies would bear the brunt of any sustained disruption.

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“Well, there is no question that India and China are going to suffer the most because most of the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz is shipped towards India and China, and so they are going to have to probably come to the United States and buy oil. Let us not forget that with the Venezuelan situation, there are ample supplies in the short term, and so that just means they are going to pay for more oil. But remember that one of the pledges that India made with the last trade deal was to buy oil from the United States and not buy oil from Russia, which is much cheaper. So, if you have to pay for something more than you were paying, obviously it is a negative.”

For India, the dilemma is stark. Cheaper Russian crude has helped cushion import bills in recent quarters. A disruption in Hormuz could push New Delhi to diversify further toward U.S. barrels, but at a higher cost — potentially widening the current account deficit and pressuring the rupee.

China faces similar calculations, though with greater strategic reserves and alternative supply routes.

Markets at a Crossroads
In the near term, markets appear to be trading on two intertwined variables: duration and disruption. If military action remains contained and shipping lanes stay operational, the shock may fade into volatility rather than a sustained crisis. But if the Strait of Hormuz faces prolonged instability, the consequences could extend far beyond oil — touching inflation, monetary policy and global growth.

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For now, the dollar and Treasuries are absorbing safe-haven flows, equities are wobbling, and oil remains the barometer of geopolitical risk. Whether this episode becomes a temporary spike or a structural turning point will depend less on headlines and more on how long the Strait remains under threat.

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Philippines manufacturing sector posts strongest growth in over eight years

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Philippines manufacturing sector posts strongest growth in over eight years

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Indonesia manufacturing sector hits near two-year high in February

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Indonesia manufacturing sector hits near two-year high in February

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