Some economists have brought forward their forecasts for a rate hike by the central bank to as early as October, overturning earlier expectations that the rates would be held steady for the rest of the year amid surplus liquidity.

IDFC First Bank and SBI Research now expect a 25-basis-point (bps) increase next month due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions in West Asia. Amitabh Chaudhry, chief executive of Axis Bank, has also cautioned that a rate hike may be needed sooner rather than later due to rising inflation risks.

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will meet from October 5 to 7 to review interest rates. The repo rate currently stands at 5.25%.

Read more – First-time borrowers deepen credit reach: Credit uptake among eligible Indians more than doubled to 74% in March from 35% in 2017

Both IDFC First Bank and SBI Research said rising crude oil prices – now around $108 a barrel – persistent food inflation and resilient economic growth have increased the likelihood of policy tightening. Prolonged supply-side shocks risk feeding into broader inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, even as the RBI withdraws excess liquidity from the banking system, they said.

Axis Bank’s Chaudhry had also flagged inflation risks posed by higher oil prices and a narrowing India-US interest-rate differential, saying a rate hike may be needed, on the sidelines of the Global Fintech Fest last week.
Until recently, most economists expected the RBI to maintain rates at current levels through at least the rest of the calendar year, supported by surplus liquidity and the central bank’s relatively dovish tone at the August policy review.”The rate hike cycle is expected to be shallow, with cumulative hikes of 50 bps to 75 bps, as it is driven by normalisation in inflation rather than signs of widespread price pressures,” IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sen Gupta said in a report released late on Sunday. “The rate hike cycle could start in October or December, with higher chances of an October start given that inflation will peak in Q3 FY27.”

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, said in a report: “Now we strongly advocate a 25-bps rate hike in the upcoming October policy (followed by another in December in quick succession).”

India’s headline retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July, tracking around the RBI’s 5% projection for FY27, with upside risks from food and fuel prices. Economic growth was estimated at 7.8% in the first quarter.

In the minutes of the August MPC meeting, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said the 5.25% repo rate had been set in an environment where inflation averaged around 2% in FY26, and that the subsequent rise in inflation warranted a reassessment of the policy setting.

SBI Research said crude prices had crossed $100 a barrel amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and warned that inflation could rise further if input-cost pressures continue to spread across sectors. It added that if oil prices remain elevated, inflation in October and November could move towards 6.5% or higher.

ET Intelligence Group: Shares of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) have declined 3.6% over the past month amid broader market volatility. However, analysts remain bullish on the stock, projecting 13-16% upside from Friday’s closing price of ₹3,915, supported by the company’s record order book of ₹7.8 lakh crore as of June 2026, robust capital expenditure demand and a growing presence in the offshore wind segment. While geopolitical tensions and logistics disruptions in West Asia affected execution during the June 2026 quarter, L&T said no major projects had been cancelled. It expects execution momentum and order inflows to improve in the second half of FY27.

The company reported a year-on-year decline in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and a contraction in EBITDA margin for the June quarter, owing to slower execution in project businesses and foreign-exchange headwinds in its IT subsidiaries. Despite the margin pressure, analysts expect the strong order book and continued momentum in fresh project wins to support margins. Order inflows are being driven by robust domestic private-sector demand, large infrastructure contracts and ultra-mega offshore wind orders from Europe. International projects account for 52% of the current order backlog, highlighting L&T’s increasing geographic diversification.
Read more: India beats a hasty retreat from a crucial market reform

Domestic private-sector investment is expected to remain a key growth driver, particularly across industrials, buildings and factories, metals and minerals, energy, and real estate. The company also continues to gain traction in overseas markets, especially the Middle East, where investments in hydrocarbons, energy transition and infrastructure remain intact despite recent geopolitical disruptions. L&T has identified a prospect pipeline of nearly ₹15 trillion for the remaining nine months of FY27, providing strong visibility for future order inflows.

Read more: FIIs sell Indian shares worth Rs 14,475 crore in Sept; analyst warns soaring bond yields may deepen selloff

The company has maintained its FY27 guidance of 10-12% growth in both revenue and order inflows, despite the challenging operating environment. Analysts believe execution should improve as logistics bottlenecks ease and recently awarded projects move into higher execution phases. Improved collections, particularly in the water and effluent treatment business, are also expected to support working-capital efficiency and profitability in the coming quarters.
L&T has undertaken portfolio-optimisation initiatives, including the divestment of Nabha Power and the sale of its stake in Hyderabad Metro, which may be completed by September-end. These moves would allow the company to focus more on its core engineering and technology-led businesses. Under its Lakshya 2031 strategy, L&T is also investing in newer growth areas such as green energy, digital technologies, semiconductors, data centres and advanced manufacturing.

A new report on the Bottle Yard Studios has revealed its contribution to the regional economy

A television studio in Bristol that was used to film hit show Rivals has boosted the regional economy by millions of pounds, according to a new report.

Spending at Bottle Yard Studios has more than tripled following the launch of its TBY2 facility in 2022, according to the research undertaken by Nordicity & Saffery for Bristol City Council and the West of England Combined Authority (Weca).

The state-of-the-art facility in South Bristol, which was backed by an £11.8m investment from Weca, is an extension of the Bottle Yard and has three sound stages.

Studio occupancy days have almost doubled since the opening of TBY2, according to the ‘Impact Evaluation of The Bottle Yard Studios’ report, rising from around 600 per year to more than 1,000 in 2024-25.

Estimated inward investment spending of productions supported by the studios each year has also more than tripled – from around £6m in the year before expansion to almost £23m, while annual gross value added (GVA) rose from £4.2m to £15.3m over the same period.

Councillor Tony Dyer, leader of Bristol City Council, said the report showed “just how significant” the Bottle Yard “success story” had become for Bristol and the wider West Country.

“It demonstrates that investment in our studios is delivering real economic value, supporting good jobs, helping local businesses grow, developing skills and sustainability, all whilst bringing global attention to our city and region,” he said.

Over the last five years, the studios has hosted 115 film and television projects across its two sites, including 34 high-end television productions, 13 feature films, documentaries, entertainment programmes, commercials and independent productions.

The opening of TBY2 has also helped boost production activity across the wider region. In Bristol, the value of location filming rose from £11.1m in 2022-23 to a record £23.8m in 2024-25, the research found. Employment among surveyed suppliers also increased by 38 per cent between 2021 and 2024.

“The benefits extend far beyond the studio gates,” added Mr Dyer. “Local suppliers, freelancers, accommodation providers, specialist businesses and production crews all benefit when filming comes to Bristol.”

The report comes less than six months after the Bottle Yard released information about its finances for the first time. The Bristol City Council-owned studios provided the details following a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by Business Live.

The studios had previously come under fire for refusing to confirm whether it makes a profit for council taxpayers.

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Microsoft on Monday revealed a draft of a new “Humanist AI Code of Conduct” that outlines the principles that will govern its development of AI models in an effort to get feedback ahead of publishing a revised version later this year.

The company said the “Humanist AI Code of Conduct” will take into account feedback it receives on the draft over the next six weeks, which will be incorporated into the revised version to be published before the end of the year and guide development of Microsoft AI (MAI) models. 

The principles in the document will “guide our model development in 2027 and beyond,” and Microsoft’s announcement said it will undertake “similar consultation processes as we develop new versions of the Code of Conduct over time.”

“This Code of Conduct is motivated by a single overriding objective: that humans must retain meaningful control over AI so that it can help people live healthier, happier, and more productive lives. It is the primary governing document informing how we train MAI Models, the technical controls, the operational and monitoring systems we implement, and the organizational culture that underpins all of this,” the company wrote.

MICROSOFT CEO SAYS SUPERINTELLIGENCE MUST REMAIN ‘UNDER HUMAN CONTROL’

“At Microsoft AI, we begin with a simple premise: people matter more than AI. Technology’s purpose is to advance human civilization and to accelerate human flourishing. Science and technology have been the engine of human progress for millennia, delivering immense benefits to billions of people,” the company wrote.

“That’s what we intend and expect from AI,” Microsoft added, saying that “to get there, we need to design with care and intention, setting out our aims and objectives clearly in advance.”

SAM ALTMAN SAYS OPENAI WON’T GO PUBLIC IN 2026 AMID AI SAFETY CONCERNS

Ticker	Security	Last	Change	Change %
MSFT	MICROSOFT CORP.	505.41	+9.78	+1.97%

Microsoft said that when it launched its superintelligence efforts in November 2025, it did so with humanist principles in mind that would keep humanity in control of advanced AI through how it is calibrated, contextualized and limited by developers.

“Superintelligence – AI systems that are more intelligent and capable than all humans combined – will be the most powerful technology in history. Over the next decade, we expect it to exceed human performance at most tasks,” Microsoft wrote in the draft code of conduct.

“Containing, controlling, and aligning such a powerful force is one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced. We must therefore be completely clear about why we are inventing these systems and how we intend to control them.”

“Defining what they must not do is as important as our excitement and optimism about the tremendous benefits they’ll bring,” the company continued.

NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG DECLARES ‘AGI HAS ARRIVED’ AFTER OPENAI UNVEILS GPT-6 ASTRA

Microsoft developed the draft code of conduct, which is 37 pages in total, over the last five to six months. Its release comes amid comments by the leaders of major AI labs – OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei – geared toward increasing third-party oversight of AI model development to ensure alignment.

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, told Reuters in an interview that it’s “clearly now time to coordinate among the labs so we can ensure that we have control of this technology.”

Suleyman was asked about efforts to pace the development of AI and added, “Now’s a good time for everybody to have this conversation and take a breath.”

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The Treasury Department on Monday night will release a video of top CEOs praising the Trump administration’s vision for business growth.

FOX Business obtained the roughly one-minute video featuring a series of interview clips made at the G20 ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1. It will be posted on the Treasury Department’s X account.

During his meetings at the G20, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted U.S. economic growth resulting from policies implemented by President Donald Trump, such as deregulation, corporate tax changes and trade deals.

A FRESH MIDTERM HEADACHE FOR THE GOP JUST HIT A NATIONAL RECORD

In the video, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says, “We have been regulating nonstop for years like barnacles on a boat. You can deregulate, free up capital, free up liquidity and make the system safer.”

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks, 3M CEO Bill Brown and John Deere CTO Jahmy Hindman are also featured in the video. They praise the business environment that has been created in the U.S. over the past year and eight months.

TOP JPMORGAN CHASE EXEC WARNS REGULATORY PROPOSAL COULD SQUEEZE CREDIT FOR MILLIONS OF SMALL BUSINESSES

These executives – and Dimon – run companies that collectively employ roughly 550,000 people, with combined revenue totaling about $376 billion.

“The president’s agenda of reducing taxes and deregulating and allowing us to build manufacturing sites in America for the first time in over 40 years for our company,” Ricks said in the video. “It’s really profound.”

JPMORGAN NAMES NELLE MILLER AND WILLIAM SINCLAIR CO-CEOS OF ITS US PRIVATE BANK

Tariffs have been the Trump administration’s primary tool in the second term to reshore manufacturing jobs, and according to the White House, it’s working, with $11.2 trillion in investments pledged by countries or companies in the U.S.

The Trump administration has pushed back against polls and the public’s perception of the economy, which it says run counter to the actual economic data over the second term, from an unemployment rate of 4.1% to the robust economic growth shown by a rising stock market – up 20% over the course of Trump’s second term thus far.

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The latest inflation data for August shows an increase in overall prices of 3.4% over the past 12 months, the 66th month inflation stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and elevated fuel prices have the public’s attention.

But the price pressure hasn’t stopped the economy from growing, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model showing a third-quarter GDP estimate of 4.4% as of Sept. 10, due in part to the growing businesses the CEOs are leading.

Mumbai: BofA Securities has turned constructive on the Nifty after nearly two years of caution, projecting the index to reach 26,200 by December 2026. This implies an upside of about 12% from current levels. The brokerage, which has maintained a cautious stance since August 2024, said five of the eight risks it had previously flagged have either materialised or are now reflected in valuations.

BofA said the two key near-term risks facing the market are potential US Federal Reserve rate hikes and heavy primary-market issuances. It expects both risks to peak by October, creating room for a Nifty rally from November. The impact of artificial intelligence on Indian employment remains a longer-term structural risk.

Read more: FIIs sell Indian shares worth Rs 14,475 crore in Sept; analyst warns soaring bond yields may deepen selloff

The brokerage expects about $30 billion in primary-market issuances between September and December, with activity peaking in October. It also expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75 basis points during the period, compared with roughly 35 basis points currently priced in by markets.

BofA believes the earnings downgrade cycle may have peaked after consensus FY27 earnings estimates for the Nifty were cut by 230 basis points year-to-date. It forecasts Nifty earnings growth of 10% in FY27 and 15% in FY28, compared with Street estimates of 12% and 15%, respectively.

Read more: India beats a hasty retreat from a crucial market reform
The brokerage has shifted its preference from small- and mid-cap stocks to large caps after broader market indices outperformed the Nifty by 13-20% year-to-date. The valuation premium for small- and mid-cap stocks currently stands at 43%, down from a peak of 53%.

Within the Nifty universe, BofA is positive on private banks, NBFCs, automobiles, upstream energy, cement, regulated power utilities, jewellery, quick commerce and EPC contractors. It remains cautious on PSU banks, insurance, steel, downstream energy, consumer staples, telecom, healthcare, industrials and information technology.