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Weekly Indicators: Calm On The Surface
Brett Ashcroft-Green, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ , fee-only fiduciary, and the founder and owner of Ashcroft Green Advisors, a Nevada-based registered investment advisory firm.He has extensive experience working alongside high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth families, with a background in private credit and commercial real estate mezzanine financing as a business director at a large family office. His professional experience spans the U.S. and Asia, including several years living and working in China.Brett is fluent in Mandarin Chinese in both business and legal settings and previously served as a court interpreter. He has collaborated with leading commercial real estate developers including The Witkoff Group, Kushner Companies, The Durst Organization, and Fortress Investment Group.
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Luxury brands from Harry Winston to Loewe are going all in on Lunar New Year collections in a bid to attract Chinese customers.
Ahead of the Year of the Horse, which starts on Tuesday, Harry Winston unveiled a limited-edition, $81,500 rose gold watch with diamond bezels and a red lacquer horse. High-end fashion brand Chloé released a capsule collection, ranging from $250 silk scarves to a $5,300 snakeskin and leather shoulder bag with a horse head and tail linked by a horsebit chain. A slew of other brands, including Loewe, Gucci and Loro Piana, have introduced new bag charms with horse motifs.
The Year of the Horse arrives at a time of cautious optimism for designer brands and could mark the start of a China’s luxury market comeback.
Chinese consumers were once the primary driver for the global luxury sector but have cut back sharply in recent years, weighed down by the country’s slowing economy and depressed housing values.
The Chinese luxury market stood at about 350 billion RMB in 2024, or about $50 billion, according to estimates from Bain. While the consultancy estimates that market contracted by 3% to 5% in 2025, Bain analysts noted that the sector started showing signs of recovery in the second half of 2025 on the back of stronger stock market performance and consumer confidence.
Loewe celebrated Year of the Horse with storefront installation in Shanghai, China.
Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Bernstein senior analyst Luca Solca said he predicts Chinese luxury spending will stabilize, forecasting mid-single-digit percentage growth in 2026. However, the market is still far more competitive than at its peak, he said.
Before the Covid pandemic, Chinese consumers accounted for about one-third of the global luxury goods market, according to Solca. That percentage has since dipped to about 23%, he said.
The luxury market’s fortunes do not solely rest on Lunar New Year, but it is an opportunity for Western brands to show respect for Chinese culture, he said.
The annual holiday is associated with the colors red and gold, which symbolize good luck and fortune in Chinese culture. Each Lunar New Year is represented by one of 12 Chinese zodiac animals. Last year’s animal was the snake.
But Solca said in order to best capture the Chinese luxury consumer, brands need to go beyond the expected motifs.
“The Chinese are no longer in awe of anything that comes from the West,” Solca said. “A perfunctory interpretation of CNY is not going to go far.”
Veronique Yang, who leads BCG’s consumer practice in Greater China, said literal interpretations can come across as lazy or even disrespectful to Chinese consumers. Younger shoppers are also looking for fresher takes, she said.
“Chinese young people, they respect the old Chinese culture, but to be honest, a lot of parts of it they don’t understand, or they want it to be reinterpreted in a modern way,” she said. “It’s important to weave a narrative that connects the heritage with a contemporary vision.”
Lunar New Year collections date back to the early 2010s, as Western brands were eager to tap into the rapidly growing Chinese luxury consumer market, according to Daniel Langer, professor of luxury strategy at Pepperdine University. At the time, newly wealthy Chinese consumers were eager to spend on designer goods, especially when they traveled abroad, he said, as there were few luxury boutiques in China outside major cities like Shanghai and Beijing.
Now, with broader access and more choice, brands have to work harder to bring in new clients.
And in the 12 years since the last Year of the Horse, Chinese high-income consumers have become more discerning, Langer said.
“They’ve been to the best places in the world. They’ve dined in the best restaurants in the world. They’ve shopped in the best shops in the world. Their expectations towards brands are significantly higher,” he said. “China has completely changed from a country where there was pent up demand for luxury goods to a country of the highest sophistication.”
Burberry’s Lunar New Year products.
Courtesy of Burberry
They also have grown accustomed to spending less on Western brands between pandemic travel restrictions and the rise of domestic high-end labels, according to Langer.
Before the pandemic, Chinese consumers did most of their luxury shopping abroad. Pandemic travel restrictions permanently changed that dynamic. According to Bain, two-thirds of Chinese luxury goods spending was done abroad in 2019. Last year, overseas spending made up only a third.
The Year of the Horse provides a natural opportunity for a sizable number of Western brands to connect to the holiday. Langer said he preferred brands who take a less literal approach, such as Loewe, which adorned its signature Puzzle bags with fringes and tassels for a cowboy aesthetic.
Yang noted, however, that the year’s zodiac animal is a good luck symbol only for people who were born in that year, which makes playing too much into horse imagery a risk.
Instead, she said, brands can use immersive experiences to connect to Chinese customers, especially younger ones, in a more authentic way.
Valentino, for instance, held a three-day lantern festival in January at Tianhou Palace, a historic temple along the Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. Burberry launched an extensive Lunar New Year campaign in mid-December, with Chinese brand ambassadors and a pop-up boutique and ice rink in Beijing.
“There’s a lot of different cultural elements that you can integrate and build a narrative around,” Yang said. “It’s not only about animals.”
The index oscillated within a 565-point band. India VIX rose sharply by 11.33% to 13.29, reflecting a pickup in volatility and some nervousness creeping back into the system. Nifty ended the week with a net loss of 222.60 points (-0.87%).
AgenciesThe broader structure continues to show a market that is in a medium-term uptrend but currently undergoing a corrective phase within that trend. On the weekly chart, Nifty has slipped below its 20-week moving average (25,728) and is hovering above the 50-week MA (24,931), placing it in a critical intermediate support zone.
The price action over the past several weeks resembles a mild distribution phase near the recent highs, and the index is now testing the lower boundary of the falling trend line. The 24,900–24,950 zone remains a major support area on a closing basis; a sustained breach below this band could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 24,350–24,400 region. On the upside, only a decisive move back above 25,800–26,000 would negate the immediate weakness and restore directional strength.
For the coming week, the markets are likely to see a cautious and potentially volatile start given the rise in VIX and the index closing near its weekly low. Immediate resistance levels are placed at 25,728 (20-week MA) and 26,000. Key supports come in at 25100 and 24,950. The weekly RSI stands at 50.17, having slipped below its recent peaks and now sitting in neutral territory; there is no visible bullish or bearish divergence against price at this point. The weekly MACD remains above the zero line but is below its signal line, indicating a loss of upward momentum. The latest candle is a bearish body following a phase of hesitation near the highs, hinting at growing supply at elevated levels.
From a pattern perspective, the index appears to be forming a short-term topping structure after failing to sustain above the recent highs. The inability to hold above the upper Bollinger Band and the subsequent drift toward the middle band reflect waning momentum. The 50-week MA at 24,931 and the 100-week MA at 24,359 form a layered support cluster below current levels, while the 200-week MA continues to slope upward, underscoring that the long-term trend remains intact despite near-term pressure.
Given this setup, a measured and stock-specific approach is advisable. Traders should avoid aggressive fresh longs until the index either reclaims 25,800 decisively or retests and stabilizes around the 24,900–24,950 support zone. Protection of existing gains should take precedence over chasing momentum. The coming week demands disciplined risk management and selective participation rather than broad-based aggressive positioning.In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.
AgenciesAgenciesRelative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSE Sector Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. Besides this, even IT index is inside the leading quadrant, but is seen rapidly giving up on its relative momentum. The other sector Indices that are inside the leading quadrant are Services Sector, Bank Nifty, PSU Bank, Metal, and Financial Services Indices. These groups may relatively outperform the broader
markets.
The Auto and the Midcap 100 Index are inside the weakening quadrant. The Infrastructure Index is also inside this quadrant but it is improving on its relative momentum.
The Nifty Pharma Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. While the FMCG Index languishes inside the lagging quadrant, the Realty Index is seen improving its relative momentum.
The Media and the Energy Indices are placed inside the improving quadrant. Important Note: RRGTM chartsshow the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
Business
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Addressing a press conference, Rahman said, “We have made ourselves clear about foreign policy, the interest of Bangladesh and the interest of the people of Bangladesh come first.”
His remarks come amid strained ties with India after former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India in August 2024 following massive student-led protests that forced her resignation. She has been living in New Delhi since then.
On Friday, the BNP reiterated its demand for Hasina’s extradition from India to face trial in Bangladesh. Senior BNP leader Salahuddin Ahmed said the party supports efforts to bring her back through diplomatic channels.
“The foreign ministry has already taken up the matter, and we support it. We have consistently called for her extradition in accordance with the law. This is an issue between the foreign ministries of the two countries. We urge the Indian government to send her back to face trial in Bangladesh,” Ahmed said.
He added that Bangladesh seeks normal relations with all its neighbours, including India, but based on mutual respect and equality. “We want friendly relations with all countries, including India, founded on mutual respect and equality,” he said.
Rahman, who lived in self-imposed exile in London for 17 years, has emerged as Bangladesh’s new political leader, with the BNP — founded by his father Ziaur Rahman — set to return to power after two decades. The 60-year-old leader’s party secured 209 of 297 seats in the elections, while the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami won 68 seats. The Awami League, led by Hasina, was barred from contesting the polls, which saw a voter turnout of 59.44%.
The result marks a dramatic turnaround for the BNP, which faced sustained political pressure during Hasina’s 15-year rule that ended after nationwide protests in August 2024.
Rahman is the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia and former president Ziaur Rahman, who founded the BNP and was assassinated in 1981. Having returned to Bangladesh after years in exile, Rahman now faces the challenge of delivering meaningful political and economic change and meeting public expectations for a decisive break from dynastic politics.
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