Business
Trader’s guide to navigating supply disruption by war
Qatar’s closure of a major liquefied natural gas plant after an Iranian drone attack has taken about a third of global helium production offline, Bloomberg Economics estimates. That’s a hit to chipmakers since it’s an essential component of production and there’s no substitute.
Surging energy prices also threaten to dampen demand for semiconductors by driving up the operational costs of AI data centers.
Food and Stoves
Supply disruptions in West Asia, where India sources most of its gas, have created acute shortages in its cooking gas market. That has pummeled shares of Eternal Ltd and Swiggy Ltd as well as restaurant operator Jubilant Foodworks Ltd.
Fears of an extended cooking-gas shortage have boosted shares of manufacturers of electric cook-tops, such as TTK Prestige Ltd and Stove Kraft Ltd, as consumers look for alternatives to gas.
Automakers
Car makers may also suffer as higher oil prices threaten to stifle consumer demand. Ford Motor Co is the most vulnerable because of the disproportionate amount of its revenue that comes from oil-guzzling cars.
Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co may face the most impact from the decrease in East Asia sales, as the region accounts for 17% and 10% of their total sales, respectively, according to Bernstein analysts including Eunice Lee. Hyundai shares have plummeted 23% this month, with Toyota down 12%.
Retailers
Rising oil prices drive up distribution costs while also draining the discretionary spending power of consumers at the pump.
Shares of US-listed apparel brands and retailers have slid, with Lululemon Athletica Inc, Nike Inc, Macy’s Inc and RH all seeing double-digit drops this month.
Clothing suppliers in China are also bracing for higher input costs, with chemical fibers (oil-derived) such as polyester and acrylic widely used in garment manufacturing.
Fertilizers
As much as 35% of global fertilizer raw materials pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Morningstar DBRS analyst Andrea Petroczi-Urban. This bottleneck is expected to drive North American fertilizer prices higher as global demand intensifies. In anticipation of tightened supply, producers like Nutrien Ltd and The Mosaic Co have seen their stock prices climb.
The outlook is more somber across the Asia-Pacific region, which relies heavily on West Asian imports. Morgan Stanley economists note that Australia is particularly exposed. Stock of Dyno Nobel Ltd has fallen 9% this month, while Nufarm Ltd’s shares have declined 4%.
In India, officials have asked China to allow the sale of some urea cargoes as the war curtails the nation’s gas supplies, threatening fertilizer production in the country. Stocks including Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers have dropped.
I focus on a rigorous fundamentals-foremost equity and credit research. I currently work as a financial advisor/planner, and do analysis in my free time. I have an undergrad in business administration, an MBA in finance, and currently am a doctoral candidate (a DBA with a concentration in Finance and Investment Management). My research style typically involves process-driven research, followed by blending several valuation models together to get a blended, 12 month price target. I enjoy utilizing full DCF analysis in conjunction with SOTP, peer/multiples analysis, and risk-adjusted approaches. I thoroughly enjoy reading filings, technical documentation relevant to the sector, and then translating that data into conclusions with actionable insights. I enjoy learning about the various sectors and companies I find myself researching, and always feel like there is something to learn. As a curious individual, equity and credit research is very fulfilling, and even fun!I always try to find 2-4 variables that drive value or hinder growth, stress test them, and then let fundamental evidence incorporated with book-value set my viewpoint for the research project. I enjoy the energy sector, commodities, tech, and financial sectors the most. I joined Seeking Alpha to share my thoughts with a wide audience. I originally started with sharing my analysis with a few of my friends who are also advisors and/or analysts. I am always open to a myriad of viewpoints, as I feel the most accurate viewpoints and research is made through a collection of great minds working together to figure something out. If you appreciate thorough research, and want to learn more about a company beyond just what is inside of their books, then I believe you will enjoy the research that I work on.
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Yara International: The Urea Price Shock Everyone Ignores
Focus on trying to piece together the big things (both at a macro and industry level) Twenty years in Asia (mainly China).
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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I spent 30 years in the institutional trenches as a trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, eventually running the equity trading desk at Northern Trust in Chicago. Those decades shaped my approach: stay disciplined, trust the data, and keep emotion out of the way. Since 2009, when I began publishing my stock selections, my portfolio has delivered solid long term results—compounding in the mid teens annually through 2025. Today I’m a private investor and investing coach, with a rules based framework that helps people build better portfolios. My work focuses on systematic thinking, behavioral awareness, and evidence over opinion. For my market outlook and model portfolio updates, visit zeninvestor.org. .
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Stephen Simpson is a freelance financial writer and investor.Spent close to 15 years on the Street (sell-side, buy-side, equities, bonds).
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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