The Supreme Court ruling that struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under an economic emergency declaration could open the door to billions of dollars in tariff refunds for businesses, though the ruling didn’t specify a process for handling those refunds.

The Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s tariffs enacted under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal because the underlying law doesn’t authorize the president to impose tariffs.

Striking down the tariffs sends the issue back to the lower courts, which could weigh in on the refund process. However, businesses are already able to file “post-summary corrections” with Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which collects tariffs for the Department of Homeland Security that are remitted to the Treasury Department, while the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) has authority over appeals.

Mike Snarr, partner at BakerHostetler and co-leader of the firm’s International Trade team, told FOX Business, “Although today’s Supreme Court opinion did not address the refund issue directly, in most cases, companies should pursue refunds through the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s administrative processes.

WILL REFUNDS BE ISSUED AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING ON TRUMP TARIFFS?

The Supreme Court’s ruling didn’t outline a tariff refund process, though there are existing options for businesses that paid the tariffs. (Qian Weizhong/VCG via Getty Images)

“For entries made within the last 10 months, importers may ask customs brokers to correct the customs declarations for refunds of recently paid IEEPA tariffs. For older entries, importers should file protests within the statutory deadlines,” Snarr added. 

“If protests are denied, importers should seek judicial review in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking reliquidation. The CIT has expressly confirmed it has the authority to liquidate under these circumstances.”

The process of submitting and evaluating appeals for tariff refunds could prove challenging for businesses as well as the entities handling the claims and appeals due to the sheer volume of IEEPA tariffs collected from a multitude of firms since they were imposed last year.

Estimates for the amount of tariffs collected under IEEPA that are subject to possible refunds top $150 billion. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation put the figure at about $150 billion, while the Penn-Wharton Budget Model’s estimate was $175 billion. An analysis by JPMorgan suggested a range of $150 billion to $200 billion.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that Treasury has the funds to pay tariff refunds if needed, though it may prove a lengthy process. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

Chris Desmond, a partner in PwC’s Customs and International Trade practice, said, “Beyond the legal implications, the real challenge now is operational,” adding companies will need to “rapidly model which IEEPA tariffs may be refundable and quantify their opportunity because any refund process is likely to be highly congested.

“Customs brokers will be under significant strain, with limited capacity to manage a surge of post-summary corrections and protests across thousands of importers,” he explained. “Even where tariff refunds may be available, many companies will face internal capacity constraints. Customs and trade compliance teams are already stretched managing day-to-day filings, enforcement activity and ongoing tariff changes.”

Desmond said that, given the demands of undergoing detailed entry reviews, coordination with brokers and tight procedural deadlines, companies that “underestimate this workload risk timing delays to their financials while creating potential compliance issues if they request refunds on the wrong tariff lines.”

Tim Brightbill, co-chair of Wiley International Trade Practice Group, noted that “more than 1,000 lawsuits have already been filed at the U.S. Court of International Trade in an effort to secure tariff refunds in the event of a Supreme Court decision against the IEEPA tariffs.”

KEVIN HASSETT SAYS FED ECONOMISTS SHOULD BE ‘DISCIPLINED’ OVER TARIFF STUDY

President Donald Trump slammed the Supreme Court and said the issue of refunds may be litigated for years. (Kent Nishimura/Reuters)

Trump said at a press conference Friday that the Supreme Court’s ruling was “deeply disappointing” and criticized the high court for not addressing tariff refunds in the decision.

“I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years. So, they write this terrible defective decision, totally defective. It’s almost like not written by smart people. And what do they do, they don’t even talk about that,” Trump said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed potential tariff refunds in an interview with Reuters last month.

“It won’t be a problem if we have to do it, but I can tell you that if it happens — which I don’t think it’s going to — it’s just a corporate boondoggle,” Bessent said. “Costco, who’s suing the U.S. government, are they going to give the money back to their clients?”

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Bessent added that the process for issuing tariff refunds could take a significant amount of time, saying, “We’re not talking about the money all goes out in a day. Probably over weeks, months, may take over a year, right?”

The Ford Ranger has reclaimed its position as Australia’s best-selling vehicle in the opening month of 2026, underscoring the enduring popularity of utes and SUVs amid a market showing modest growth and shifting preferences toward electrified options and Chinese brands.

According to VFACTS data released by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, new vehicle sales totaled 87,753 in January 2026, a slight 0.1% increase from the previous year despite comparisons complicated by 2025 port strikes and biosecurity delays. SUVs commanded 61.2% of the market, light commercials held 20.5%, passenger cars 15.5% and heavy commercials the remainder.

The top 10 models for January 2026 reflect a blend of traditional favorites and rising challengers:

1. Ford Ranger — 3,403 units (down 20% year-on-year) Australia’s perennial ute king reclaimed the crown despite a dip, buoyed by its rugged capability, towing prowess and widespread appeal for work and leisure. The Ranger accounted for over half of Ford’s January sales, highlighting its dominance in the light commercial segment.
2. Toyota HiLux — 2,800 units (down 15.2%) The iconic HiLux trailed closely, impacted by the gradual rollout of its new generation. It remains a staple for tradies and rural buyers, though competition from the Ranger and emerging Chinese utes pressures its long-held status.
3. Mazda CX-5 — 2,289 units (up 22.3%) A surprise podium finisher and the top SUV, the CX-5 delivered its strongest January performance in years. The outgoing model benefits from strong demand ahead of its refresh later in 2026, appealing with refined handling, premium interior and fuel efficiency.
4. Chery Tiggo 4 — 2,234 units (up 119.4%) Chinese brands surged, with Chery’s compact SUV hitting an all-time high ranking. Aggressive pricing, generous features and growing dealer networks propelled the Tiggo 4 into the top five, signaling accelerating acceptance of Chinese vehicles.
5. Mitsubishi Outlander — 1,975 units (down 5.5%) The PHEV-equipped Outlander maintained solid momentum in the electrified space, benefiting from Australia’s rising interest in plug-in hybrids, which soared 170.5% to 5,161 units market-wide.
6. Ford Everest — 1,913 units (up 13.9%) The body-on-frame SUV outsold rivals like the Toyota Prado, offering family-friendly seating, off-road ability and diesel efficiency that resonate with Australian buyers.
7. Hyundai Kona — 1,839 units (up 41.4%) The compact crossover climbed sharply, fueled by its stylish design, tech features and hybrid/EV variants appealing to urban drivers.
8. Isuzu D-Max — 1,798 units (down 13.8%) The dependable ute held firm in the commercial segment, favored for its durability and value in fleet and rural applications.
9. GWM Haval Jolion — 1,789 units (up 39.1%) Another Chinese success story, the Jolion’s affordability and equipment levels continued to drive strong gains for GWM.
10. Toyota RAV4 — 1,757 units (down 65.4%) The former bestseller suffered as outgoing stock dwindled ahead of the new model’s March arrival, a transitional dip expected to reverse later in the year.

The list highlights key trends: utes and SUVs dominate, comprising eight of the top 10 spots. Chinese manufacturers like Chery and GWM posted explosive growth, with China-origin vehicles jumping 62.9% to claim 23.8% market share. Toyota, the overall brand leader with 14,310 sales (16.4% share), saw a 22.3% decline — its weakest in nearly three years — as models like the RAV4 transitioned.

Electrification accelerated: Battery electric vehicles rose 93.3% to 8.4% share, plug-in hybrids exploded and hybrids held steady at 17.4%. Brands like BYD surged dramatically (up 640.9% year-on-year, though from a low base affected by prior delays), climbing to sixth overall.

State variations showed resilience in Victoria (+6.3%) and New South Wales (+2.3%), while Western Australia (-12.7%) and the Northern Territory (-18.1%) lagged. Private sales edged up modestly, but short-term rentals jumped 47%, inflating the headline figure.

Analysts note the market’s resilience despite economic pressures, with SUVs’ 61% share reflecting lifestyle shifts toward versatile, family-oriented vehicles. Chinese brands’ momentum challenges established players, potentially reshaping the top 10 as more models arrive and incentives evolve.

As 2026 unfolds, expect battles in key segments: the refreshed RAV4 challenging for SUV supremacy, new HiLux variants bolstering Toyota, and continued Chinese inroads. For now, the Ford Ranger’s lead affirms Australia’s love for capable utes, while diverse powertrains signal a market in transition.

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