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UTI AMC’s V Srivatsa warns against midcap valuation, says risk-reward better in largecaps

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UTI AMC's V Srivatsa warns against midcap valuation, says risk-reward better in largecaps
UTI AMC‘s Executive Vice President – Equity, V Srivatsa, believes investors may be better off leaning towards largecaps despite the superior long-term growth prospects of midcap stocks. With the midcap segment trading at a record valuation premium over largecaps, he said the risk-reward has turned more favourable for largecaps, whose earnings growth is improving while valuations remain around historical averages. Edited excerpts from a chat:

With valuations elevated in several pockets, how do you assess the broader market’s risk-reward proposition today?
While valuations remain in excess in certain pockets such as capital goods, consumer durables, defense and healthcare albeit this is led by better earnings visibility and growth, there are also pockets where valuations are below mean in sectors such as banks, insurance, information technology and telecom. Thus, risk reward remains balanced. The earnings growth for Nifty 50 for next year is around 14% as per Bloomberg estimates after two years of sub-par growth and valuations also remain below the last couple of years. With the oil price stabilising and rupee stabilising, we see more macro stability ahead coupled with the earnings growth should lead to positive risk reward going ahead.
Where do you currently see a better balance between growth and valuation: largecaps or midcaps?
The Nifty 50 trades at one year forward estimates of around 17x (as per Bloomberg) which is in line with the last five-year averages and the earnings growth of around 14% is respectable which is led by capital goods and services, telecom, metals and financials. The mid cap also is expected to grow in similar lines and trades at 50% premium to large caps. While the longer-term outlook for mid cap is superior to large caps, the valuation premium is at record high and there could be mean reversion especially when the growth is picking up for the large cap. Hence on a risk reward basis, a large cap looks superior. Which sectors offer the strongest earnings visibility over the next three to five years, and where are expectations running ahead of fundamentals?
In terms of sectors, power equipment, defense, electronic manufacturing services (EMS), healthcare and retail offers highest earnings visibility led by strong order book in case of capital goods and EMS players and strong trends in demand in healthcare and retail. In case of capital goods (power equipment/defense, EMS), while the order visibility is high, there could be peaking of orders in the next three years posing cyclical risks post three years and current valuations do not factor any medium-term weakness which is not ruled out as these businesses are pro cyclical. In case of healthcare and retail, valuations are fair and there could be a long tail of growth justifying the valuations.


Does AI represent a structural growth opportunity for Indian IT companies, or could productivity gains disrupt their traditional revenue model?
AI represents a very good long-term opportunity as the global companies embrace AI in their business, they would need the service of Indian IT service providers to integrate the AI into their systems, and this would present a significant opportunity for them. However, in the near term, there could be pressure on two counts, one is to incorporate AI to reduce cost of delivery and passing on the benefits to clients and second is possible cuts in IT services spending as AI hardware costs crowds out the IT services spending. Yet we believe that there would be long term benefits to the Indian IT services companies.
Capital goods companies have benefited from the investment cycle. What indicators would signal that the cycle is strengthening or approaching a peak?
The key indicators that we will watch to assess the cycle are changes in the government policies, upward or downward revision in government capex, global demand for global linked industries, weakening profitability in end user industries and capex announcements. Government policies and corporate profitability and demand would be the key signals to watch out for the capex order cycle.
What are the biggest risks to Indian equities today: earnings disappointments, stretched valuations, global uncertainty or domestic growth moderation?
Global uncertainty would be the biggest risk for the Indian markets as the geo political risks have increased manifold in the last few years and it has important bearing on the oil prices wherein higher oil prices can cause instability in the Indian economy and also high geo political risks affects global sentiment towards equities and flows trends towards safer assets .

If you have to start an SIP of Rs 10,000 as an investor with moderate risk appetite at this stage, how would it be spread out across various fund categories?
I would suggest a mix of flexicap or large mid cap funds and smaller allocations towards hybrid funds.

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Business

Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom

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Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom
Wall Street major Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could surge to $120 per barrel if disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route, persist, even as its base case assumes an eventual easing of tensions in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming tensions in the Middle East ease. However, the risks to its forecasts remain “tilted to the upside” due to potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and possibly the Red Sea, analysts said.

Global energy markets have faced renewed volatility this month, with Brent climbing back above $91 per barrel amid fresh fighting between the U.S. and Iran and a threat by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia. Red Sea routes have played a key role in enabling Persian Gulf crude cargoes affected by disruptions to reach buyers.

Also read: Relieved that crude has finally fallen? The real warning signs just began flashing elsewhere

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Goldman Sachs said lower global inventories in the second quarter have increased the oil market’s vulnerability to supply shocks. However, weaker Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity could limit the potential for further price gains.

Crude oil price today

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as markets weighed reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran, including a proposed 10-day ceasefire, against continued military exchanges and a threat by Yemen’s Houthis to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a 10-day ceasefire proposal from mediators. The initiative aims to preserve the interim agreement signed on June 17 and create a path toward a lasting deal to end the conflict that began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
The diplomatic push followed another night of U.S. strikes on Iranian cities and retaliatory attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on U.S. military assets across the region. U.S. Central Command later said on Monday that it had launched another round of strikes on Iran.
The U.S. carried out its 10th consecutive day of strikes after President Donald Trump vowed that Iran “will pay” for the killing of American soldiers. Iran responded with attacks on Kuwait.

The conflict began on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Tehran retaliated with strikes on Israel and Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, along with Israeli strikes on Lebanon during the conflict, have killed thousands of people and displaced millions.

Also read:Oil is crude once again! Is $95 the new normal and what it means for Indian investors?

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Over the past week, Trump has also threatened to widen the scope of U.S. strikes in Iran to include energy facilities and bridges.

The 1949 Geneva Conventions, which set rules for humanitarian conduct during war, prohibit attacks on sites considered essential to civilian life. Following Trump’s earlier threats to target such infrastructure, international law experts in the U.S. said earlier this year that such attacks could potentially constitute war crimes.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Business

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript