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Valuations ease after sell-off, yet stay relatively elevated

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Valuations ease after sell-off, yet stay relatively elevated
ET Intelligence Group: Over half of the BSE 500 companies now trade below their three-year and five-year average valuations. The current sell-off in the equity market, which has resulted in a near 13% fall in the benchmark indices since the beginning of 2026, has pulled down valuations over a medium-term horizon. However, when seen on a longer horizon of 10 years, 60% stocks still trade above the decade-ago valuations.

Amid rising concerns over the consequences of the latest Iran-Israel conflict, the benchmark domestic equity indices have been trading near their 11-month lows, which has affected overall valuations. This more so in the case of non-lending companies as the majority of banks and financial companies have shown resilience by retaining valuations above their three and five-year averages. Three out of every four of the lending enterprises in the sample continue to trade above their long term price-book (P/B) multiples. In case of banking and finance companies, price-book (P/B) multiple provides relevant information about relative valuation. It is calculated by dividing the share price by the book value.

Selloff Pushes Valuations Down, but Only So MuchAgencies

A majority of BSE 500 stocks below 3-year and 5-year average valuations; however, 60% still trade above long-term numbers

In case of non-lending companies that include manufacturing, services and trading enterprises, 56% companies trade below their three-year price-earnings (P/E) multiples while 42% look less expensive than what they were a decade ago. A P/E multiple is calculated by dividing the share price of a company by its earnings per share (EPS). When compared with the historical data, the P/E multiple offers insights on relative valuation of the stock.
In addition, nearly three out of every four stocks in the total sample trade below their respective 200-day moving averages, reflecting bearish sentiment in the market.

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The prospect of a prolonged Iran war and elevated oil prices is prompting stock investors to reassess a broader array of industries, including less obvious targets from food delivery firms to cosmetics makers amid supply disruption news. Here’s a look at some sectors under investor scrutiny as broader consequences of the war unfold.

Chipmakers

Qatar’s closure of a major liquefied natural gas plant after an Iranian drone attack has taken about a third of global helium production offline, Bloomberg Economics estimates. That’s a hit to chipmakers since it’s an essential component of production and there’s no substitute.

Surging energy prices also threaten to dampen demand for semiconductors by driving up the operational costs of AI data centers.

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Food and Stoves
Supply disruptions in West Asia, where India sources most of its gas, have created acute shortages in its cooking gas market. That has pummeled shares of Eternal Ltd and Swiggy Ltd as well as restaurant operator Jubilant Foodworks Ltd.


Fears of an extended cooking-gas shortage have boosted shares of manufacturers of electric cook-tops, such as TTK Prestige Ltd and Stove Kraft Ltd, as consumers look for alternatives to gas.
Automakers
Car makers may also suffer as higher oil prices threaten to stifle consumer demand. Ford Motor Co is the most vulnerable because of the disproportionate amount of its revenue that comes from oil-guzzling cars.
Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co may face the most impact from the decrease in East Asia sales, as the region accounts for 17% and 10% of their total sales, respectively, according to Bernstein analysts including Eunice Lee. Hyundai shares have plummeted 23% this month, with Toyota down 12%.

Retailers
Rising oil prices drive up distribution costs while also draining the discretionary spending power of consumers at the pump.

Shares of US-listed apparel brands and retailers have slid, with Lululemon Athletica Inc, Nike Inc, Macy’s Inc and RH all seeing double-digit drops this month.

Clothing suppliers in China are also bracing for higher input costs, with chemical fibers (oil-derived) such as polyester and acrylic widely used in garment manufacturing.

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Fertilizers
As much as 35% of global fertilizer raw materials pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Morningstar DBRS analyst Andrea Petroczi-Urban. This bottleneck is expected to drive North American fertilizer prices higher as global demand intensifies. In anticipation of tightened supply, producers like Nutrien Ltd and The Mosaic Co have seen their stock prices climb.

The outlook is more somber across the Asia-Pacific region, which relies heavily on West Asian imports. Morgan Stanley economists note that Australia is particularly exposed. Stock of Dyno Nobel Ltd has fallen 9% this month, while Nufarm Ltd’s shares have declined 4%.

In India, officials have asked China to allow the sale of some urea cargoes as the war curtails the nation’s gas supplies, threatening fertilizer production in the country. Stocks including Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers have dropped.

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