Wall Street Brunch: Jobs Report Due Despite Holiday

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Weak March jobs could mean a worst-case scenario for stocks. (0:17) Nike earnings and China demand outlook could sway consumer stocks. (1:22) Iran conflict escalates as oil prices rise, military plans advance. (2:14)

The following is an abridged transcript:

It’s a holiday-shortened week on Wall Street. Markets will be closed Friday in observance of Good Friday. But because it’s not a federal holiday, the March employment report will still be released.

Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 56K last month, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and average hourly earnings up 0.3%.

SA analyst Damir Tokic says every labor and inflation report will take on added importance as long as the war with Iran continues and oil prices remain elevated, with a particular focus on the Fed’s reaction function.

“The market is starting to price a hike in 2026,” he noted, “which means participants believe the Fed could be forced to tighten despite a weakening labor market — a worst-case scenario for equities.”

Pantheon Macro says the still-restrained pace of layoffs argues against further deterioration in the labor market for now, even though hiring remains weak. The firm notes that high-frequency measures such as Indeed and LinkUp job postings have held steady at low levels during the conflict — but that could change if higher gasoline prices begin to weigh more heavily on consumer spending.

On the corporate front, Nike (NKE) headlines earnings on Tuesday. Its outlook on China demand and broader consumer trends could have read-through for names such as Starbucks (SBUX) and Estée Lauder (EL).

Analysts expect Nike to post EPS of $0.28 on revenue of $11.2B. Over the past 90 days, estimates have seen three upward revisions and four downward ones.

SA analyst Sandeep Gupta, who rates the stock a Strong Buy, says that if gross margins improve sequentially — or if management strikes a constructive tone on China — “a significant re-rating is expected.”

But in the Sell camp, SA analyst Louis Liu argues that Nike “is a business that has stopped growing and has seen meaningful earnings erosion,” and that it has not reduced SG&A expenses aggressively enough in the face of revenue declines.

Also on the calendar:

Beyond Meat (BYND) reports Tuesday, followed by ConAgra (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW), and Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) on Wednesday.

Focus will also remain on the war with Iran and its impact on energy markets.

The Pentagon is reportedly developing plans for weeks of ground operations, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East, according to The Washington Post.

Rather than a full-scale invasion, any operation would likely involve Special Operations raids and limited conventional deployments. Missions under consideration include the possible seizure of Kharg Island — a key Iranian oil export hub — and strikes on coastal weapons systems near the Strait of Hormuz capable of targeting commercial and military shipping. Officials estimate such objectives could take “weeks, not months.”

Meanwhile, Russia plans to ban gasoline exports starting April 1 to prioritize domestic supply amid heightened oil market volatility.

Oil futures are pointing higher ahead of Sunday evening trade.

WTI (CL1:COM) (USO) rose above $102/bbl in weekend trading on IG. On Kalshi, markets are pricing in a 76% chance that Brent (CO1:COM) (BNO) tops $114.50/bbl when trading begins.

OANDA said a sustained move above $102.25 for WTI could open the door to $111–$124. A break below $85.50 would invalidate the bullish view and expose downside toward $81–$73.

And for income investors, Micron Technology (MU) goes ex-dividend on Monday, with a payout scheduled for April 15.

Deere (DE) and Nucor (NUE) go ex-dividend on Tuesday. Deere pays out on May 8, while Nucor distributes on May 11.

And Cisco (CSCO) goes ex-dividend on Thursday, with an April 22 payout date.