Wall Street Brunch: Nvidia Time (undefined:NVDA)

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Nvidia earnings test AI demand and priced-in investor expectations. (0:17) Fed minutes will reveal dissent details. (1:30) SpaceX IPO speculation rises as prediction markets remain skeptical. (2:01)

It’s Nvidia (NVDA) week as the world’s largest public company reports earnings on Wednesday.

Analysts expect Q1 EPS of $1.78 on $79.17B in revenue. GPU demand remains the central focus, but guidance will likely determine the stock’s reaction.

Seeking Alpha analyst Louis Gerard, who has a Strong Buy rating, says he is adding shares ahead of the report, though he cautions that perfection is priced in and a clean beat-and-raise is needed for further upside. He is also watching for reassurance on hyperscaler spending durability and the successful ramp of Rubin.

On the other side, Tonga Capital — the lone Sell among 28 SA analysts covering the stock — argues Nvidia is already projected to become one of the most profitable companies in modern history, meaning sustained hypergrowth at this scale warrants skepticism.

“The long-term success of AI depends on infrastructure costs falling,” they wrote. “It is hard to reconcile the incentive to reduce the cost of intelligence with Nvidia’s current cost structure.”

Meanwhile, Mott Capital says Nvidia has been in an options squeeze since March. The question now is whether results can overcome the unwind of event risk and the euphoria built into the stock ahead of earnings.

Also on the earnings calendar:

Baidu (BIDU) reports Monday, with Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday.

Analog Devices (ADI), Intuit (INTU) and Target (TGT) join Nvidia on Wednesday.

Walmart (WMT) rounds out the week with results on Thursday.

On the economic front, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due this week. It was the final meeting before Kevin Warsh takes over as chairman and featured three dissents.

Wells Fargo economists say they will be watching whether non-voting members shared the view that the Fed’s next move is equally likely to be a hike or a cut.

They note that the departure of Governor Miran could mean the minutes overstate dovish support on the Committee. Still, even with a more hawkish tone, they expect the minutes to show most participants favored holding rates steady while assessing how the energy shock feeds through to inflation and the labor market.

Also this week:

There is renewed speculation that SpaceX (SPACE) could file its IPO prospectus, following a Reuters report. But prediction markets remain skeptical — Kalshi shows just a 12% chance the company files its S-1 this week.

There is also buzz that Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) may release its third “Grand Theft Auto 6” trailer and open pre-orders.

Options markets are signaling expectations for a catalyst. The May 22 expiration implies a roughly ±10% move by Friday’s close — a sizable swing for a stock with no earnings scheduled.

In the news this weekend, electricity providers NextEra Energy (NEE) and Dominion Energy (D) are in talks to combine in an equity-led deal that would create a utility giant valued at more than $400B.

The Financial Times reported a potential announcement could come as early as next week, though discussions are ongoing and could still fall apart.

Tesla (TSLA) has raised U.S. prices on select Model Y trims for the first time in two years. Increases of up to $1,000 apply to premium versions, with no change to entry-level models.

For income investors:

Carnival (CCL) goes ex-dividend Monday, paying out on May 29.

Chevron (CVX) and Alcoa (AA) go ex-dividend Tuesday. Chevron pays on June 10 and Alcoa on June 5.

Valero Energy (VLO) goes ex-dividend Thursday, with a June 23 payout date.

And while we’re on the subject of income investing —

The Best Income Ideas Online Summit is coming up this Wednesday, May 20. It’s hosted by George Noble — a legend from his days at Fidelity — in collaboration with Seeking Alpha, and features Michael Howell, J Mintzmyer, Luke Gromen, Steven Cress and others sharing their top income ideas for today’s market.

The event is $99, and you can register here.