Warmest summer on record: mixed fortunes for traders

The UK’s warmest summer on record has produced mixed results for businesses in south-west England and the Channel Islands, with some traders reporting higher visitor numbers and stronger demand for food and drink, while others say prolonged dry conditions cut output.

Provisional Met Office figures put the mean temperature for June, July and August at 16.5C (61.7F), the highest in a series stretching back to 1884. The Met Office said on 1 September that the figure was 1.9C above the 1991-2020 average and beat the previous record of 16.1C set in 2025, according to its summer 2026 statement. Rainfall over the three months was 195.4mm, 77 per cent of the seasonal average.

Meteorologists in Jersey and Guernsey confirmed both islands had their warmest summers on record, with average temperatures of 20.5C (68.9F) in Jersey and 18.9C (66.2F) in Guernsey.

The Avon Inn in Avonwick, Devon, reported a rise in trade after adding more outdoor seating. Manager Eda Iannone said the pub had seen “a fantastic summer for footfall”.

“We took a lot more bookings and we put a lot more outside events on with confidence, knowing that with the UK being weather dependent, they would go well,” she said.

Not every seasonal business gained from the heat. Christian Hocking, of ice cream seller Hocking’s in Appledore, Devon, said trade had been steady but customers were choosing water over ice cream because the heat suppressed appetite. “When it gets too hot, it does actually gets too hot for ice cream,” he said.

Separately, analysis by the thinktank Verdant put lost UK output from repeated heatwaves at £4.4bn by the end of July, citing reduced worker productivity and equipment shutdowns.

Guernsey Dairy said dry spells and high temperatures affected milk volumes from local farms, although supplies remained sufficient to meet daily demand across the island. Operations director Andrew Tabel said: “Our local dairy farmers and production teams have worked incredibly hard throughout this prolonged period of hot and dry weather.”

Rocquette Cider in Guernsey expects its apple harvest to be about 80 per cent lower than normal as a result of the hot weather. Manager James Miller described the outlook as “appalling”.

“The grass is very dry, we haven’t had to mow the grass at all,” Miller said. “The trees have been suffering, I think the only moisture they’ve been getting is from morning dew.”

He added: “Last year we had a good harvest, so we have a lot of cider stored which will carry us through, but two bad years would be devastating.”

The cider maker’s experience follows warnings from the Food and Drink Federation that drought will push up food prices into 2027, and a move by NatWest to offer repayment holidays to farming customers hit by reduced yields.

Tina Bessell of Cornish Lavender, based between St Agnes and Perranporth, said the heat produced a “fantastic” oil yield, although visitor numbers to the site fell on the hottest days. “The farm has loved the heat,” Bessell said. “I think I must be the only farmer in the South West that is happy with the heat.”

The National Trust for Jersey said extreme weather was affecting St Ouen’s Pond, where low water levels and algal growth are threatening a habitat used by migrating birds.

“Normally at this time of year we’d have all sorts of visitors like green sandpipers, curlews and we’ve had spoonbills visit us at this time of year before,” said Jon Parks of the trust. “They’re all looking for that wetland habitat, a chance to feed and there’s no water there, there isn’t that opportunity unfortunately.”

Parks said extreme summers were a “major contributing factor” to the problems at the pond, but stressed they were not the only cause.

Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

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