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Weekly Commentary: Lacking A Good Scenario

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Weekly Commentary: Lacking A Good Scenario

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I’m at about 30 years persevering as a “professional bear.” My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market – for one of the most brilliant individuals I’ve met – was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear (that concluded at the end of 2014), working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008. In the early-nineties, I became an impassioned reader of The Richebacher Letter. The great Dr. Richebacher opened my eyes to Austrian economics and solidified my lifetime passion for economics and macro analysis. I had the good fortune to assist Dr. Richebacher with his publication from 1996 through 2001. Prior to my work in investments, I worked as a treasury analyst at Toyota’s U.S. headquarters. It was working at Toyota during the Japanese Bubble period and the 1987 stock market crash where I first recognized my love for macro analysis. Fresh out of college I worked as a Price Waterhouse CPA. I graduated summa cum laude from the University of Oregon (Accounting and Finance majors, 1984) and later received an MBA from Indiana University (1989). By late in the nineties, I was convinced that momentous developments were unfolding in finance, the markets and policymaking that were going unrecognized by conventional analysis and the media. I was inspired to start my blog, which became the Credit Bubble Bulletin, by the desire to shed light on these developments. I believe there is great value in contemporaneous analysis, and I’ll point to Benjamin Anderson’s brilliant writings in the “Chase Economic Bulletin” during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression era. Ben Bernanke has referred to understanding the forces leading up to the Great Depression as the “Holy Grail of Economics.” I believe “The Grail” will instead be discovered through knowledge and understanding of the current extraordinary global Bubble period.

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Factbox-Trump’s signature on $100 bill to put him in small circle of sitting presidents

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Factbox-Trump’s signature on $100 bill to put him in small circle of sitting presidents


Factbox-Trump’s signature on $100 bill to put him in small circle of sitting presidents

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Scholar Rock: From Manufacturing Hurdle To Commercial Muscle, Maintaining Buy Rating (NASDAQ:SRRK)

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Doctor sharing medical results with woman

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Lifescience investor focused on non-consensus long-short investment ideas. I focus on small to mid-cap biotechnology companies that are public on the US and EU markets. I like to delve into clinical catalysts or play earnings on new drug launches. I do not provide personal investment advice. All content that I provide, including but not limited to opinions, analyses, commentaries, forecasts, stock picks, and investment strategies, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the content may contain errors, inaccuracies, or omissions. Any financial decisions or investments made based on the information presented in this article are solely at your own risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses, damages, or other consequences resulting from actions taken in reliance on the information provided. You should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. This article reflects my personal views and opinions and is not affiliated with any employer, financial institution, or advisory firm. No representations or warranties are made regarding the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the content, including any external links provided. Any third-party links are for informational purposes only, and I do not endorse or take responsibility for the content or services offered by external sources. All information is provided on an “as is” basis without any express or implied warranties.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SRRK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I do not provide personal investment advice. All content in this article, including but not limited to opinions, analyses, commentaries, forecasts, stock picks, and investment strategies, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the content may contain errors, inaccuracies, or omissions. Any financial decisions or investments made based on the information presented in this article are solely at your own risk. I am not responsible for any financial losses, damages, or other consequences resulting from actions taken in reliance on the information provided. You should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. This article reflects my personal views and opinions and is not affiliated with any employer, financial institution, or advisory firm. No representations or warranties are made regarding the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the content, including any external links provided. Any third-party links are for informational purposes only, and I do not endorse or take responsibility for the content or services offered by external sources. All information is provided on an “as is” basis without any express or implied warranties.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Protagonist presents one-year data for psoriasis drug ICOTYDE

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Protagonist presents one-year data for psoriasis drug ICOTYDE

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KRE: Valuations Are Declining, But May Not Correct Soon

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KRE: Valuations Are Declining, But May Not Correct Soon

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Viant Technology Inc: Will This Beaten-Down Ad-Tech Stock Bounce Back? 3 Things To Know

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AppLovin Stock Q4: Market Is Focused On Competition; I’m Focused On ROAS From AppDiscovery

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Experienced Equity Research Analyst with a decade of expertise in analyzing US equities. I employ a top-down investment approach, prioritizing company fundamentals and reports to cut through market noise. My focus lies in identifying companies with expansive, high-growth markets, a distinctive product offering or economic moat, and a proven ability to translate revenue into strong cash flow.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?

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Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?


Explainer-What is the World Trade Organization e-commerce moratorium?

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Erika Kirk Escalates Legal Battle Against Online Critics While Pushing Christian Revival Tour in 2026

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Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012

Erika Kirk, the widow of assassinated conservative activist Charlie Kirk and current chairwoman and CEO of Turning Point USA, is navigating a turbulent period marked by intensified legal threats against online detractors, public scrutiny over her leadership style, and continued efforts to advance her late husband’s mission through a national speaking tour and political engagement.

Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012
Erika as Miss Arizona USA winner in 2012

Kirk has sent a fresh cease-and-desist letter to the operator of Project Constitution, accusing him of defamation for alleging her involvement in Charlie Kirk’s September 2025 assassination and unsubstantiated claims linking her to sex trafficking tied to Jeffrey Epstein. The letter asserts that such statements are “absolutely false and made with actual malice,” escalating a broader battle against far-right influencers and conspiracy theorists who have questioned her grief, personal life and role at the influential conservative organization.

Charlie Kirk, the co-founder of Turning Point USA, was shot and killed on the campus of Utah Valley University in September 2025 during a speaking event. Erika Kirk, who had been married to him since 2018, quickly assumed leadership of the organization and has since positioned herself as the steward of his legacy, frequently describing her work as a way for “daddy to continue to live on forever” through the group’s mission.

In recent weeks, Kirk has responded to a wave of viral memes and satirical content mocking her public appearances and persona. Comedian Druski’s sketch impersonating “how conservative women in America act,” which included a portrayal widely seen as referencing Kirk, drew tens of millions of views and sparked backlash from some conservative circles who called it disrespectful to a grieving widow. Kirk addressed the memes in a recent statement, pushing back against what she described as unfair attacks while maintaining focus on her faith-driven work.

Despite the online controversies, Kirk has remained active on the national stage. In February 2026, she attended the State of the Union address as one of President Donald Trump’s invited guests, where Trump acknowledged her presence and called for rejection of political violence in memory of her husband. She has also been appointed by Trump to the U.S. Air Force Academy Board of Visitors, replacing her late husband on the advisory panel.

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Kirk launched the “Make Heaven More Crowded” tour in January 2026, kicking it off at Harvest Christian Fellowship in Riverside, California, alongside pastor Greg Laurie. The tour, which blends calls for Christian revival, prayer and conservative values, has included stops across the country, though some events — such as a planned appearance in Orlando — were postponed amid venue controversies. She has vowed to help build a “red wall” for Republican candidates in the 2026 and 2028 elections.

Public appearances have not been without friction. A scheduled visit to the Utah State Capitol in February, where she was to receive a citation, was canceled after news of the event leaked. Kirk has also faced internal and external questions about Turning Point USA’s direction under her leadership, with some critics accusing her of shifting the organization’s tone or priorities.

Legal proceedings related to her husband’s death continue. Kirk has invoked a rare Utah victims’ rights law to push for a speedy trial of the accused gunman, Tyler Robinson, arguing against defense delays. She publicly forgave the accused killer during a large memorial service attended by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in September 2025.

Online discourse around Kirk has grown increasingly polarized. Some conservative voices, including Candace Owens, have launched investigative-style series questioning aspects of Kirk’s background, past statements and personal life, including claims about her upbringing and other personal details. Kirk’s supporters dismiss these as baseless attacks aimed at undermining a prominent conservative woman, while detractors continue to circulate unverified theories. Kirk has largely avoided engaging directly with the most extreme claims, instead redirecting attention to Turning Point USA’s youth outreach and faith-based initiatives.

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At 37 years old, Erika Kirk (née Frantzve) has emerged as a more visible public figure than before her husband’s death. Born in 1988, she previously worked in business and nonprofit roles. She and Charlie Kirk had been vocal about their Christian faith and traditional values, and she has continued that emphasis in her speeches, often framing her leadership as a divine calling.

Turning Point USA, founded in 2012, focuses on conservative activism on college campuses and among young people. Under Erika Kirk’s leadership, the organization has maintained its events and programming while navigating the emotional and operational challenges following the assassination.

Kirk has spoken openly about the grief process, describing moments of finding “divine work” in tragedy while also facing criticism from some quarters that her public activities — including high-profile events and merchandise efforts — do not align with traditional expectations of mourning. She has rejected such judgments, stating that continuing her husband’s work honors his memory.

As 2026 progresses, Kirk faces a complex landscape: leading a major conservative nonprofit, defending against defamation claims, countering online satire and speculation, and positioning herself within the broader Trump-aligned political movement. She has endorsed JD Vance for future leadership roles and maintains a close relationship with the Trump circle.

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Supporters view her as a resilient figure carrying forward an important legacy amid personal loss. Critics, including some within conservative media, question her authenticity or motives. The intense scrutiny reflects the highly charged nature of contemporary political discourse, where personal tragedy quickly intersects with ideological battles.

Kirk continues to emphasize themes of faith, revival and rejection of political violence in her public remarks. Whether her legal actions against critics will deter further attacks or fuel more speculation remains to be seen. For now, she appears focused on Turning Point USA’s mission and her tour, while navigating the spotlight that has intensified since September 2025.

The coming months could bring further developments in the legal case surrounding her husband’s death, additional tour stops, and ongoing debates about her role in conservative politics. As one of the most visible women in the movement, Erika Kirk’s every move draws attention from allies and adversaries alike.

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Powerball Jackpot Climbs to $166 Million for Saturday, March 28, 2026 Drawing: Cash Value $74.5 Million

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Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over to an estimated $166 million for Saturday night’s drawing after no ticket matched all six numbers in Wednesday’s drawing, lottery officials said.

Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.
Powerball tickets rest on a 7-Eleven store register January 9, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.

The estimated cash value for the Saturday, March 28, 2026, drawing stands at approximately $74.5 million, offering players a choice between the annuitized jackpot paid over 30 years or the immediate lump-sum option. Drawings are held at 10:59 p.m. ET every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

Wednesday’s winning numbers were 7, 21, 55, 56 and 64, with a Powerball of 26 and a Power Play multiplier of 4x. While there was no jackpot winner, lower-tier prizes were claimed across the country, including two tickets that won $2 million and $1 million in some states through matching five numbers or with Power Play.

The jackpot had stood at an estimated $148 million with a cash value of about $66.9 million heading into Wednesday’s draw. With another rollover, the prize has grown for the Saturday drawing, continuing a pattern of steady increases that often captivates players when the top prize climbs into nine figures.

Powerball is played in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tickets cost $2, with an optional $1 Power Play add-on that can multiply non-jackpot prizes. Sales typically surge as the jackpot rises, with players dreaming of life-changing windfalls.

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The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot remain 1 in 292,201,338, making it one of the longest shots in American lotteries. Despite the slim chances, the allure of a massive payout draws millions of ticket buyers, especially when the prize exceeds $100 million.

Lottery officials remind players that every ticket has the same chance of winning regardless of where or when it is purchased. They also urge responsible play, recommending that people set a budget and treat lottery tickets as entertainment rather than an investment strategy.

For Saturday’s drawing, players have until approximately 9:59 p.m. local time in most jurisdictions to purchase tickets, though cutoffs vary slightly by state. Online sales are available in many participating states through official lottery apps or websites.

The most recent Powerball jackpot was won earlier in March when a ticket sold in Arkansas claimed a $250.8 million prize on March 2. That winner had the option to take the cash value or the annuity.

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Powerball jackpots begin at $20 million and increase with each drawing that has no grand-prize winner. The prize grows based on ticket sales and interest rates, which affect the cash value calculation.

In addition to the jackpot, Powerball offers nine other prize tiers, ranging from $4 for matching just the Powerball to millions for matching five white balls. The Power Play option can increase those prizes up to 10 times in some cases, though the multiplier for the jackpot itself does not apply.

As of late Saturday morning, the countdown to the drawing showed roughly 13 hours remaining until the 10:59 p.m. ET drawing time. Players across the country were checking their tickets from previous drawings and buying new ones in hopes of becoming the next multimillionaire.

Financial advisers caution that sudden wealth from lottery winnings comes with challenges, including taxes — federal withholding of 24% plus potential state taxes — and the need for professional guidance on managing large sums. Many past winners have opted for the cash value to gain immediate control over the funds.

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Stories of past Powerball winners often highlight both the opportunities and pitfalls of sudden riches. Some have used winnings to fund education, start businesses or support charities, while others have faced personal struggles after the initial excitement.

The Multi-State Lottery Association, which administers Powerball, emphasizes transparency in jackpot estimations and prize payouts. Official results are posted shortly after each drawing on powerball.com and through state lottery websites.

For those playing Saturday, common number-picking strategies include quick picks, birthdays, anniversaries or “hot” and “cold” numbers based on past frequency. However, every combination has an equal probability.

As the clock ticks down to the March 28 drawing, excitement is building in convenience stores, gas stations and online platforms where tickets are sold. In states like California, Florida, New York and Texas, which often see high sales volumes, retailers report increased foot traffic when jackpots reach this level.

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The $166 million annuity equates to 30 graduated annual payments, starting lower and increasing over time. The cash value represents the amount available if the winner chooses the lump sum, which is invested to fund the annuity option for future jackpots.

Powerball has created hundreds of millionaires since its inception, with some prizes reaching well over $1 billion in recent years. The game’s sister lottery, Mega Millions, also frequently produces massive jackpots, giving players multiple opportunities for big wins.

With no winner on Wednesday, attention now turns fully to Saturday night. If the jackpot goes unclaimed again, it will roll over once more for the Monday drawing, potentially climbing higher.

Players are encouraged to sign the back of their tickets immediately after purchase and keep them in a safe place. They should also double-check numbers against official results, as unclaimed prizes eventually return to state lotteries for education and other programs in many jurisdictions.

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As the drawing approaches, the message from lottery officials remains consistent: play responsibly, have fun and remember the long odds. For one lucky ticket holder on Saturday, however, those odds could deliver a life-altering $166 million prize — or the $74.5 million cash alternative.

The drawing will be broadcast live and results will be available shortly afterward on official channels. Whether the jackpot is claimed or rolls over again, Powerball continues to capture the imagination of players hoping for that one-in-a-lifetime break.

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Braskem S.A. 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:BAK) 2026-03-28

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q4: 2026-03-27 Earnings Summary

EPS of -$5.34 misses by $3.76

 | Revenue of $3.07B (-6.50% Y/Y) misses by $23.39M

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel

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At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel


At CPAC, a generational divide over Republican support for Israel

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