Nifty’s sharp breakout above the 23,500 level has prompted technical analysts to turn bullish on the near-term market outlook, with many seeing signs of a base formation around the 23,100–23,300 zone. Analysts said improving momentum indicators, bullish chart patterns and sustained buying interest could help the index move towards the 24,000–24,500 range in the coming weeks, while the 23,100–23,300 zone is expected to provide crucial support.

NAGRAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty witnessed an excellent breakout. A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a decisive breakout of the consolidation movement. Further sustainable upside from here could open the next upside targets of around 23,800 and 24,100 levels. Immediate support to be watched is at 23,300. Trading Strategies
Traders may buy Bank Nifty June futures around 56,900 or accumulate the 57,000 call option (June 30 expiry) at Rs 800-811. Maintain a stop loss at 56,000 on spot levels. On the upside, Bank Nifty could advance towards 57,700 initially and 59,200 thereafter.

TOP STOCKS BETS
BANK OF INDIA: Buy Rs 145, CMP Rs 145, Target Rs 154, Stoploss Rs 141
The stock has seen a sharp rally recently, and the current consolidation phase offers a buying opportunity, with RSI (Relative Strength Index) and volume indicators pointing to further upside.
BPCL: Buy at 302 , CMP Rs 302, Target Rs 317, Stoploss Rs 292

BPCL has rebounded sharply after a recent correction, with the chart indicating a key bottom reversal, supported by strong volumes and positive RSI signals

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP- RESEARCH ( TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty closed above 23,500, signalling improving buying interest and a base formation in the 23,300– 24,000 range. While the trend remains weak, with ADX above 32, RSI has moved above 50, indicating a possible directional shift. A sustained move above the 23,800 resistance could push the index towards 24,000 and 24,420, while the 23,150–23,100 zone remains a key support area.

Trading Strategies
Since the Nifty50 has displayed a ‘Piercing Line’ formation on its weekly scale. It’s ideal to deploy fresh longs. Traders should accumulate Nifty up to 23,520 with a stop loss below 23,380 for a potential upmove towards 24,000 & 24,420, which could be seen in the coming weeks ahead.

BUY NIFTY – up to 23520 SL 23380 TGT 24000/24420. BUY BSE SENSEX- up to 74945 SL 74550 TGT 77100

TOP STOCK BETS

HDFC Bank CMP Rs 772, Buy Rs 772, Target Rs 840, Stoploss Rs 754

Weekly ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern with RSI displaying a strong positive divergence. A bullish crossover of its 5 & 20 EMA is another good sign for directional momentum.

UltraTech Cement CMP Rs 11,117, Buy Rs 11,180, Target Rs 11,588, Stoploss Rs 10,910

The stock has repeatedly defended the 10,700 support level, forming a strong double-bottom pattern that signals a potential reversal, with the stock likely to move towards 11,600 while 10,700 remains a key support zone.

SOMIL MEHTA
HEAD OF RETAIL RESEARCH, MIRAE ASSET SHAREKHAN

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Despite the ongoing global uncertainties, the Nifty held firmly above the 61.8% retracement level and formed a strong base around 23,100. A positive weekly close and a bullish crossover in the daily momentum indicator point to strengthening upward momentum. The recent low of 23,070 remains a key support level, while a decisive move above the 20-DMA and 40-DEMA levels of 23,532 and 23,676, respectively, could further strengthen bullish sentiment and lift the index towards 24,100 in the coming days.

Trading Strategy
Buy NIFTY Futures at current levels or on dips, SL – 23,070 on a closing basis. Target – 24,100 – 24,500

TOP STOCKS BETS

KEI Industries Buy at CMP Rs 5,374 Target Rs 5,600– 5,800, Stoploss Rs 5,120

The stock has broken out of its earlier trading range and a triangular consolidation pattern above the 40-day EMA, with Friday’s decisive breakout and a bullish hidden divergence on the daily RSI signalling a continuation of the uptrend after a brief consolidation phase.

HDFC Bank: BUY at CMP Rs 771, Target Rs 810–830, Stoploss Rs 740

Despite recent underperformance, HDFC Bank is well placed for a recovery as the Nifty Private Bank index has registered both short- and medium-term breakouts, while the stock has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, supported by positive divergence on the daily RSI and a bullish crossover in the daily momentum indicator.

Mumbai: The Shapoorji Pallonji Group has cut the first tranche of its proposed ₹28,500 crore refinancing programme by ₹3,500 crore and is planning to seek more time from bondholders to address near-term maturities, people familiar with the matter said.

“The SP Group has scaled down the fundraise size and sought another two-month extension on ₹14,300 crore of maturing bonds, as delays in executing the debt raise force the conglomerate to seek additional time from creditors,” said a person close to the matter.

The group, which was planning to raise ₹28,500 crore in two tranches, has reduced the first part to about ₹22,000 crore from ₹25,500 crore, another person said.

The refinancing is being arranged by Deutsche Bank under the SP Group’s Project Ascent fundraising and refinancing programme. The first part of the deal, initially expected to be priced by the end of May, is now likely to close around June 30 or by mid-July, according to people aware of the matter.
The second tranche is likely in September, the second person said.

The delay in fundraising has resulted in the Mistry family-controlled group seeking additional time from existing creditors.
An SP spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The conglomerate had earlier secured a two-month extension on repayment of ₹14,300 crore of bonds issued by its Goswami Infratech unit, from April 30 to June 30. It is now planning to seek another two-month extension, as it works to complete the fundraising deal, the people said.

Separately, the group has sought bondholder approval to extend a temporary relaxation of a key loan-to-value (LTV) covenant on Porteast Investment’s 19.75% notes until September 30 from July 15, ET reported last week. Prospective lenders have sought greater certainty that the Porteast bonds will not face covenant pressure while the refinancing is being completed.

The refinancing plans were disrupted earlier this year, after Reserve Bank of India measures on the offshore foreign exchange market led to a sharp increase in hedging costs. Hedging costs had surged to more than 5% from around 2.5-3%, making the economics of a large offshore borrowing unattractive and delaying the fundraising exercise.

Market conditions have since improved. According to debt capital market bankers, hedging costs for private sector borrowers have eased to around 3%, although they remain significantly higher than the roughly 1.5% available to eligible state-owned companies under the RBI’s dollar-rupee swap facility.

In April, Porteast bondholders approved a temporary increase in the LTV threshold to 40% from 34% after the group cited heightened market volatility. Under the bond terms, an LTV ratio above 34% for five consecutive trading days would trigger an event of default.

The covenant has come under pressure following a decline in the shares of Tata Consultancy Services, which account for roughly half of the collateral backing the Porteast notes, and a general decline in other Tata Group listed stocks due to the geopolitical situation.

Both the Goswami and Porteast debt facilities are secured against SP Group’s 18.38% stake in Tata Sons. The Goswami and Porteast bonds, originally issued at yields of 18.75% and 19.75%, respectively, have since increased to as high as 21.75%.

Gold rose more than 1% on Monday, after U.S. and Iran officials said they had reached a deal to end their conflict, pushing oil prices lower and easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

Spot gold was up ‌1.8% at $4,297.42 ⁠per ⁠ounce, as of 0010 GMT, its highest level since June 9. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 1.9% to $4,318.10.

U.S. and Iranian officials said on Sunday they had agreed on a peace framework for a deal to end their war, halt the U.S. blockade of Iran and reopen ⁠the Strait ‌of Hormuz.

The pact will be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ⁠said in a post on X.

Oil prices slipped more than 4% and the U.S. dollar fell to a 10-day low following the announcement.

Gold prices have been under pressure since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in late February. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to ‌a sharp increase in global oil prices, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations of interest rates staying higher for longer.
Though traditionally ⁠seen as an inflation hedge, gold loses appeal in a high interest-rate environment as the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset increases. Markets see a 64% chance of a U.S. interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

SYDNEY: Share markets surged in Asia on Monday while the dollar slipped and oil prices tumbled as a tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran promised to ease inflationary pressures globally and lessen the need for higher interest rates.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media early on Monday that a deal had been struck, while President Donald Trump said the agreement included opening the vital Strait of Hormuz, though without giving details.

Trump will meet with Middle Eastern ‌leaders and attend a working ⁠session with ⁠Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a G7 summit in France this week.

Iran said traffic through the strait would be regulated by it and Oman, a potential blow to the rules of free trade and suggesting there might be a toll of some sort on shipping.

“The lack of details especially on freedom of shipping is a concern but not one that should constrain markets today as the surge in risk appetite plays out,” said Sean Callow, a senior FX analyst at ITC Markets.

“The prospect of a sustained fall in energy prices changes the conversation for central banks just ahead of a flurry of policy decisions.”
The news will be a relief for the crowd of central banks meeting this week, easing some of the pressure to tighten policy to head off an energy-driven rise in inflationary expectations. Markets had already priced ⁠in a likely ‌deal but the confirmation was enough to send Brent crude falling 4% to $83.80 a barrel, well away from its May peak of $126.41. U.S. crude slid 4.7% to $80.89 a barrel, but was still above the $67 level it traded at before the war began.

“We see Brent oil futures falling ⁠to $80 by the end of the year assuming the strait does not close again,” said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy analyst at CBA.

“Our forecast implicitly assumes that oil and refined product exports can resume quickly through the Strait of Hormuz, but this view carries considerable uncertainty tied to the damage to oil and refinery assets.”

The prospect of cheaper oil will be a boon to Japan which is a net importer of energy, and the Nikkei climbed 3.0%. South Korea’s red-hot market gained 4.3%, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.5%.

RELIEF FOR CENTRAL BANKS
In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both rose 0.2%, while FTSE futures added 0.3%.

S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.5% amid a general surge in risk assets.

Central banks are due to meet in the U.S., UK, Japan, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Russia this week, with Japan ‌considered the one likely to lift rates this time.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday at Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting. The statement, economic projections and news conference will be scrutinised for any signals of the Fed dropping its easing bias as officials grow more hawkish on inflation risks. Investors were quick ⁠to trim the chance of a hike this year with December futures edging up four ticks while a move as early as October is now priced around 45%.

Treasuries rallied on hopes that oil prices would now fall sustainably and lessen the upside risks for inflation. Yields on 2-year notes dropped 6 basis points to 4.02%.

The drop in yields and general improvement in risk pulled the U.S. dollar broadly lower, with the euro rising 0.4% to $1.1608. The dollar dipped 0.2% on the yen to 159.90 , while sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3446.

The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday and through 2026, with policymakers seen in no rush to tighten. The BoE’s vote split and monetary policy report will be of interest.

Top-tier UK data includes May inflation and retail sales, and April employment. Thursday’s Makerfield election will also be watched, as a win for Labour Mayor Andy Burnham could set up a leadership contest against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

In commodity markets, the drop in yields helped non-interest-paying gold climb 1.9% to $4,300 an ounce.