What the Cartel’s Unravelling Means for UK SMEs and Energy Costs

The United Arab Emirates has announced it is to withdraw from Opec and the wider Opec+ alliance after nearly six decades of membership, in a move that analysts warn could herald the unravelling of the world’s most powerful oil cartel and usher in a fresh wave of price volatility for British businesses already grappling with stubborn energy costs.

The Gulf state, which joined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in 1967, said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”. Abu Dhabi’s energy minister suggested that operating outside the cartel’s quota system would afford the country greater flexibility to pursue its own production ambitions, free of the collective discipline that has long shaped global crude markets.

For the UK’s small and medium-sized enterprises, the immediate consequences are far from academic. Energy-intensive sectors, from manufacturing and logistics to hospitality, have spent the past three years contending with input costs that swung wildly on the back of geopolitical shocks and Opec+ output decisions. A weakened cartel could mean cheaper oil in the short term as producers compete for market share, but it also raises the spectre of greater price swings as the disciplinary mechanism that has historically tempered volatility begins to fray.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, did not mince his words, describing the move as “the beginning of the end of Opec”. With the UAE’s departure, the cartel loses roughly 15 per cent of its production capacity and what Mr Kavonic called “one of its most compliant members”. The UAE currently pumps approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, against Saudi Arabia’s nine million.

“Saudi Arabia will struggle to keep the rest of Opec together, and will effectively have to do most of the heavy lifting regarding internal compliance and market management on its own,” he warned, adding that other members may yet follow Abu Dhabi’s lead. He went further, characterising the development as a “fundamental geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East and oil markets”.

The departure leaves Opec with eleven members. Founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, the cartel was created to coordinate production and stabilise revenues for member states. The current line-up also includes Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo.

For SME owners watching from Britain, the message is clear: hedging strategies, fixed-price energy contracts and supply chain stress-testing are no longer the preserve of FTSE 100 boardrooms. The post-Opec era, if it does indeed dawn, promises a more fragmented and unpredictable global energy market, and the businesses that prepare now will be best placed to weather what comes next.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.