Westminster governments of whatever hue have underfunded Wales and the Senedd is the only route we have to achieve the funding levels needed to improve life in Wales.
A TfW train at Cardiff Station.(Image: 112 Canarias)
In Thursday’s Senedd Election a judgement is to be made on which political party (or coalition) will take forward Wales’ transport network.
An efficient transport system provides the basis for a successful economy to move people and freight within Wales and internationally. Inward investors see transport in their top four criteria.
Most parties address in some way the issues discussed in this column over recent months. There is a split between those concentrating on additional new roads/increasing capacity on existing roads (Welsh Conservatives/Reform) and public transport investment (Plaid Cymru, Green Party, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats).
Welsh Conservatives designate the M4, A55 and A40 as ‘union highways’ benefitting the UK as a whole. Surely, they should firstly benefit Wales.
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Experience shows that new road capacity may improve the short-term congestion position but over several years more traffic is attracted and congestion will return and not solve the south-east Wales’ road congestion problem. The capital cost of a new M4 relief road (really a six-lane motorway) is over £2bn. The annual cost of removing potholes is estimated at £250m.
The estimated cost of making a 21st century railway network in Wales is £14bn (Today, Tomorrow, Together, Welsh Government, 2026)
These numbers are a massive fiscal challenge to any incoming government. The party manifestos have to show an understanding of the costs (whether published or not; and not just small marginal items) but also income from capital and revenue accounts within the block grant and Welsh taxation.
The sources and size of government revenue and the timescale over which it is received has to be set against a vision of strategic transport and land use planning. Consequently any new land developments (housing, business, retailing, manufacturing) must have an associated transport plan. Keeping in mind that major infrastructure schemes are not built within the life of one Senedd.
Wales has not been ‘fiscally fought for’ over decades but of the parties transport manifestos only Plaid Cymru refers to the revenue side of Wales’ public funding and making best use of the funds.
That unfairness shown to Wales must be resolved and Plaid Cymru in its first hundred days of government promises to begin negotiations with Whitehall sourcing a new block grant settlement. This would include full devolution of all rail investment funding alongside the existing operational powers and funding. And while adding a modestly estimated £3bn (including the investment backlog) annually to the block grant, it would also make possible an integrated transport investment programme.
A new investment framework would then evaluate the costs and benefits of all road and rail infrastructure investment schemes and would have similarly considered the 20mph scheme. This implies that decisions are made initially on strategic criteria reflecting HM Treasury’s new ‘Green Book’ approach and then considered on economic or financial grounds. This evaluation process would apply to Cardiff Airport funding.
Although not specific on roads, it is fair to say that Plaid Cymru has produced the most detailed analysis of needs in its transport manifesto. It reflects a Netherlands-type approach which has been successful in reducing car-related traffic congestion and improving safety through a national public transport ticket, an integrated bus /tram/ rail /cycle network via interchange points and new vehicle investment. It should find favour with Welsh Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. Welsh Labour is clear on its intentions but so it should after thirty years background knowledge.
Reform unfairly criticises railway passenger capacity but incorrectly believes that using bimodal trains and varying length of trains between peak and off-peak times will solve overcrowding. That may work in London but indicates a very limited knowledge of Wales’ railways.
Wales will undoubtedly face a big financial challenge during the next Senedd. If these policies are to be achieved, increased income is required from the two main sources – Barnett formula consequential payments from Westminster and Wales’ own income and land transfer taxes. Increase in Welsh income tax is bravely suggested by the Liberal Democrats.
One thing is clear. Any party which does not have in its manifesto, nor in previous statements, the continuance of the Senedd and a devolved government is living in a fiscal dream world. Successive Westminster governments of whatever hue have underfunded Wales. The Senedd is the only route we have to achieve the funding levels needed to improve life in Wales.
Parties prepared to follow a hard and continuous fiscal onslaught against the London governmental elite must therefore control the Senedd.
- Professor Stuart Cole is emeritus professor of transport (economics and policy) University of South Wales.
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