Who Will Win 2026 Masters? Scottie Scheffler Heavy Favorite to Win as Rory McIlroy Pursues Rare Repeat Glory

AUGUSTA, Ga.— Scottie Scheffler arrives at Augusta National as the clear betting favorite to claim his third green jacket Thursday when the 90th Masters Tournament begins, but defending champion Rory McIlroy’s bid for back-to-back titles adds drama to a star-studded field packed with major winners and in-form challengers.

Scheffler, the world No. 1, opened as the +510 to +550 favorite across major sportsbooks, according to FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM lines released in the final hours before Thursday’s 7:40 a.m. ET tee times. The 29-year-old Texan has won the Masters in each of the last two even-numbered years — 2022 and 2024 — and enters this week as the game’s most consistent performer despite a recent lull that saw him finish no better than 12th in three straight starts.

Yet oddsmakers and models still give him the edge. SportsLine’s simulation, which has correctly picked 16 major winners including the past four Masters, projects Scheffler among the top contenders after running 10,000 tournament scenarios. His ball-striking remains elite, and Augusta National’s firm-and-fast conditions expected this week play to his strengths off the tee and with the irons.

McIlroy, 36, returns as the first player since Tiger Woods in 2001-02 with a realistic shot at consecutive green jackets. The Northern Irishman completed the career Grand Slam with a dramatic playoff victory over Justin Rose in 2025. For the first time in 18 Masters appearances, he arrives without the weight of chasing that elusive final major. His recent form has been mixed — a T-46 at the Players Championship and a withdrawal at the Arnold Palmer Invitational — but his Augusta history (14 cuts made) and motivation could prove decisive.

“Rory has the carrot of history dangling in front of him now,” one analyst noted in pre-tournament previews. Only three players — Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Woods — have won back-to-back Masters in the modern era. McIlroy sits at +1,200 to +1,300, making him a live underdog in what many are calling the deepest field in years.

Right behind Scheffler in the odds are two LIV Golf standouts who have dominated headlines. Bryson DeChambeau, fresh off back-to-back LIV victories, has climbed to +1,000 to +1,050 and is the public’s favorite bet at several books, becoming BetMGM’s largest liability. The 2020 U.S. Open champion has posted top-six finishes in each of the past two Masters and appears to have finally solved Augusta’s puzzle after years of public frustration with the layout.

Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, checks in at +900 to +1,000. The Spaniard has answered early doubts about his post-LIV form with four top-15 major finishes in his last five starts and multiple LIV top-fives this season. He remains a proven major closer at Augusta.

Xander Schauffele (+1,500), Ludvig Åberg (+1,600 to +1,700), Cameron Young (+2,200) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2,200) round out the top tier of contenders. Schauffele’s major pedigree and consistent top-10s at Augusta make him a safe top-five play, while Åberg’s runner-up finish in 2024 and T-7 last year keep him in the conversation despite a recent dip that included four missed cuts in eight major starts.

Fleetwood, ranked No. 4 in the latest Official World Golf Ranking, offers value according to the SportsLine model. The Englishman has five top-25 Masters finishes in eight tries, including a T-3 in 2024, and enters the week with strong form: four top-10s in five 2026 starts. His driving accuracy and approach play could shine if the greens remain lightning-quick.

Other notable names include 2021 champion Hideki Matsuyama (+2,700), three-time major winner Brooks Koepka (+4,500) and 2018 champion Patrick Reed (+3,500). First-time major hopefuls such as Robert MacIntyre (+2,700) and Min Woo Lee (+3,000) add intrigue, though history favors experience at Augusta.

Current Official World Golf Rankings released this week reinforce the depth: Scheffler leads, followed by McIlroy, Young, Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. The top 10 includes several players who have won or contended at majors recently.

Augusta National’s setup this year features the traditional fast fairways and lightning-quick greens that reward precision. Practice rounds revealed firm conditions that could punish wayward drives and demand pinpoint iron play into the par-5s. Chairman Fred Ridley addressed the field Wednesday, emphasizing the course’s timeless challenge amid evolving player power.

Weather forecasts call for mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 70s, ideal for scoring but potentially treacherous if winds pick up on the weekend.

Betting trends show heavy action on Scheffler (nearly 10 percent of tickets and 17 percent of dollars at BetMGM) despite his longest pre-tournament odds since 2023. DeChambeau and Koepka have drawn public money, while longer shots like Akshay Bhatia have seen odds shorten dramatically.

Experts remain split. Some see Scheffler’s pedigree and course knowledge as unbeatable; others point to McIlroy’s emotional lift from the 2025 win or DeChambeau’s red-hot putter. The Athletic’s Big Board ranks Scheffler first, McIlroy second, DeChambeau third, Schauffele fourth and Rahm fifth, citing each player’s recent strokes-gained metrics and Augusta-specific success.

ESPN’s panel and Golf Channel analysts highlighted the “wide-open” nature of the event, with multiple players capable of posting the week’s low score. Yet the consensus leans Scheffler unless his recent inconsistency resurfaces under Sunday pressure.

A Scheffler victory would mark his third Masters title and cement his status as the game’s dominant force. A McIlroy repeat would etch his name alongside golf’s immortals. Either outcome — or a surprise from the likes of Fleetwood or Fitzpatrick — would cap a compelling week at the year’s first major.

As the opening round begins under the towering pines of Augusta National, one thing is certain: the 2026 Masters promises fireworks, with Scheffler the man to beat and McIlroy the story everyone will be watching. (Word count: 1,012)