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Why a Rs 72,000 crore fund manager refuses to chase power and defence rally now

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Why a Rs 72,000 crore fund manager refuses to chase power and defence rally now
With skyrocketing order books driving massive rallies in power and defence stocks, retail euphoria is at an all-time high. However, ICICI Prudential’s Senior Fund Manager, Mittul Kalawadia, who manages over ₹72,000 crore across major schemes like the Equity & Debt Fund, Dividend Yield Equity Fund, and iSIF Equity Long-Short Fund, is striking a strong note of caution.

In this interview with ET Markets, he warns that current valuations have already priced in future growth, leaving little margin of safety for aggressive new bets. Edited excerpts from a chat on market outlook, sectoral bets and stock picking in a tough macroeconomic environment.

How has your allocation between equity and debt changed over the last year in ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund?
We do not maintain a static allocation between equity and debt. The allocation is dynamically managed based on valuations and certain macroeconomic factors, with valuations being the primary driver. Over the last year, our equity allocation has moved between approximately 65% and 75%. Currently, it is around 73-75%. Whenever valuations become attractive, we increase equity exposure, while expensive valuations prompt us to reduce it. The fund’s mandate allows us to operate within a 65-80% equity range.Which sectors currently offer the best opportunities from a valuation and growth perspective?
Valuations are close to their long-term averages, expectations are reasonable, and fundamentals remain healthy. Banking is one sector we find attractive from a valuation perspective. We also like certain discretionary consumption businesses, particularly those with pricing power. In an inflationary environment, companies that can pass on costs tend to maintain profitability better. This includes select automobile and consumer discretionary businesses. On the export side, we like pharmaceutical companies and exporters of manufactured goods. Currency depreciation can enhance their competitiveness globally. We also find opportunities among companies benefiting from import substitution.


The consumption narrative has been strong over the last year. Do you still remain positive?
We were not very positive on consumption as a broad theme. Consumption is not a homogeneous category. Different segments perform differently depending on demand conditions and competitive intensity. We prefer specific discretionary categories where either competitive dynamics are improving or pricing power remains strong. While GST reductions have supported consumption, inflation has partially offset some of those benefits. However, in most categories, price increases have not fully negated the gains from lower GST rates.
What is your outlook on PSU banks?
The key question is whether current profitability levels are sustainable. PSU banks benefited from treasury gains and lower credit costs. Going forward, treasury income may moderate and credit costs could increase marginally. The strong earnings upgrade cycle that PSU banks enjoyed is largely behind them. While valuations remain reasonable, the scope for meaningful re-rating depends on whether economic conditions improve again. Currently, we have very limited exposure to PSU banks.
What is your view on the broader PSU space, particularly defence, power and energy?
Within PSUs, we continue to like the power sector. The underlying business cycle remains favourable, although there could be some seasonal fluctuations. Defence remains an attractive long-term theme, but valuations in many defence stocks already reflect a significant portion of future growth expectations. Execution will now become critical. Companies must deliver on order books and profitability. While we like some individual defence names, we are not broadly positive on the entire sector at current valuations.

There has been a shift in investor preference from PSU defence companies to private defence companies. How do you view this?
The theme remains intact, but valuations across both PSU and private defence companies have become expensive. From a thematic perspective, defence remains attractive, but valuation comfort is limited.

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Your dividend yield fund owns IT stocks. There are concerns that AI could significantly disrupt IT services companies. How do you think about that risk?
The growth environment for IT remains challenging. Economic growth globally is moderating, and AI introduces additional uncertainty regarding future demand pattern. However, valuations have corrected, dividend yields have improved and cash flow generation remains strong. This creates a case for owning the sector, although we are not taking a significant overweight position.

This is a contrarian opportunity, but unlike some previous contrarian calls, it is not one where investors can take very large bets. AI is not a temporary phenomenon. It is a structural change and has the potential to be disruptive. That said, disruption often takes longer than people expect. Traditional newspaper companies, for example, continue to operate profitably despite digital disruption. However, their valuation multiples have compressed significantly over time. Something similar could happen in IT. Even if earnings remain resilient, valuation multiples could continue to de-rate. Therefore, while there is a case for investing in the sector, position sizing becomes very important.

Have you increased your allocation to IT over the last year?
Compared to eight or nine months ago, our allocation is higher. At one point, we were significantly underweight in the sector. Today, we are closer to benchmark weight. The combination of attractive valuations, strong cash generation and increasing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks has improved the investment case.

What is the starting point for stock selection in your dividend yield fund?
The first filter is yield. We evaluate both dividend yield and operating cash flow yield. However, yield alone is not enough. We focus equally on the sustainability of those yields and the probability that they can grow over time. Our process combines yield, sustainability and growth potential to identify the most attractive opportunities.

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How is the portfolio constructed?
The portfolio is built through two approaches. The first is a systematic ranking framework that combines dividend yield, operating cash flow yield and sustainability metrics. The second is a bottom-up approach where we identify businesses undergoing positive cyclical change. In such situations, current yields may not appear attractive, but future cash flows could improve significantly. We have used this framework successfully in sectors such as telecom, automobiles and power in the past.

Why has your allocation to REITs reduced over time?
There was a period when REIT valuations were significantly more attractive, and our allocation was higher. Over time, valuations improved and yields compressed. Relative to other opportunities available in equities, REITs became less attractive. As a result, our allocation has reduced.

What is your outlook on the power sector, particularly power equipment companies?
The underlying theme remains strong. Global AI-related capital expenditure is driving demand for power infrastructure and equipment. However, valuations have become quite rich. The market has increasingly priced in the growth opportunity. However, there could be a possibility that these companies could surprise positively. We have seen similar cycles in the past where strong demand supported earnings growth for several years. That said, given the elevated valuations, it would be risky to have a very large allocation to the sector. Any slowdown in global capex could quickly affect sentiment and valuations.

From a value perspective, where do you currently find opportunities in the market?
Banks remain attractive from a valuation standpoint. Beyond banks, we see opportunities in pharmaceutical companies and export-oriented manufacturing businesses. These are the areas where we currently find the best combination of valuation comfort and business visibility.

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Andy Burnham wins Makerfield: When will the next Greater Manchester mayor be elected now he is an MP?

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Huge win in by-election paves way for Labour leadership challenge

Andy Burnham celebrates his Makerfield win

Andy Burnham celebrating his Makerfield win(Image: Jason Roberts /Manchester Evening News)

Andy Burnham is heading back to Parliament after winning the Makerfield by-election.

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The newly elected Labour MP came out on top in the race against a strong challenge from Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon.

But overnight Mr Burnham secured a seismic win, with 24,927 votes placing him well ahead of Reform challenger Robert Kenyon who secured 15,696 votes. His return to Parliament is expected to pave the way for a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

It marks the end of weeks of campaigning in the constituency based south of Wigan, and the start of the next political race in Greater Manchester for Andy Burnham’s old job as mayor.

Becoming an MP disqualifies Burnham from being Greater Manchester mayor, so a replacement needs to be found for the region’s top political job.

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That means another by-election is about to take place, with voters across Greater Manchester choosing the next mayor.

It is set to be a massive operation, with 2.1 million people registered to vote in the contest, and around 400,000 expected to do so by post.

Ahead of the crucial race, the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS) takes a look at what happens next and when the mayoral by-election will be held.

What date will the by-election for Greater Manchester mayor take place?

The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) has confirmed July 30 as the date for the mayoral by-election.

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The GMCA’s returning officer, Caroline Simpson, told the LDRS earlier this month: “If the Makerfield by-election result triggers a mayoral by-election, Greater Manchester will be legally required to hold a by-election within 25-35 working days.

“To ensure we are ready, we have identified July 30 as the date which will allow the maximum number of people to vote, whether in person, by post or by proxy.

“This will avoid holding an election during the peak holiday period in August and will mean that postal votes will arrive just before, or only a day or two into, the school holidays.

“While Greater Manchester’s returning officers are very experienced at running elections, the lead time for a mayoral by-election would be shorter than for a scheduled poll.

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“So, following legal advice, and with support from government and the Electoral Commission, we have begun essential preparation work such as booking polling stations. We are doing this in advance of, not in anticipation of, the Makerfield by-election outcome on June 19.”

The by-election touches all corners of Greater Manchester, so expect to see candidates campaigning across all ten boroughs of the city-region.

Counting for mayoral elections usually takes place the day after polling day, so the result should be known by Friday, July 31.

What voting system will be used?

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The government has just changed the voting system for how mayors are elected.

A system called supplementary voting will be used to elect Greater Manchester’s next mayor, rather than the previous first-past-the-post method.

The change came into force on June 18 after passing through Parliament wrapped up in the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act.

It could have a huge impact on deciding who becomes the next mayor of Greater Manchester. Voters choose a first and second preference among candidates in supplementary voting.

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If no candidate gets 50 per cent of vote in the first round of voting, a second round of voting is held between the two candidates with the most support.

That’s the stage where secondary votes are added and could flip the entire result on its head.

One potential scenario could see party A win more votes in the first round of voting, but still go on to lose the mayoral by-election if party B picks up more second preference votes in round two.

Reform UK said earlier this week that the change was a ‘cynical attempt’ to sway the race in Labour’s favour. Labour didn’t comment when asked about the claims from Reform.

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The change in voting system was debated in the House of Lords on June 16.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative, said: “Let us be honest about this order. It is not normal to identify who would be affected by a particular change of law, but this order is an attempt to prevent Reform winning the possible Greater Manchester mayoralty by-election.

“There is no other justification for the haste with which this order has been introduced, other than that it solves the Labour Party’s problems and prevents Reform winning a mayoralty.”

Baroness Taylor of Stevenage, for Labour, responded: “The Government were very clear during the passage of the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act that we intended to make this change for mayoral and PCC elections after May 2026. There is now the potential for such an election; I will come on to more about that in a moment. We are therefore acting to deliver on our commitments made to Parliament.”

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What happens next?

Political parties will choose their candidates to stand in the mayoral by-election before campaigning begins.

The rumour mill about who could stand for each party has already kicked in, with names being suggested by sources. Official announcements and campaign launches are expected to happen in the next few days.

What follows will be weeks of campaigning to try and convince voters to back their various visions for Greater Manchester.

The scale of the by-election means parties will be out and about across the region, from Wigan to Stockport and everywhere in between.

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Whoever wins the race will be handed one of the most important political jobs in the country, running Greater Manchester.

The mayor of Greater Manchester has a huge range of responsibilities, from deciding the transport budget for the region from government, including over the future of bus services, to being the public’s voice on policing matters, and being in charge of funding for housing and regeneration schemes.

The stage is set for a fascinating race.

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ServiceNow: The AI Threat Is Overstated

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HubSpot: Believe The Transition, But Wait For Confirmation

ServiceNow: The AI Threat Is Overstated

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New leader of the Welsh Local Government Association

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Leader of Torfaen Council has taken up the role

Anthony Hunt.(Image: Welsh Labour)

The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) has appointed Anthony Hunt as its new leader.

Mr Hunt, who has been leader of Torfaen County Borough Council since 2016, has held the finance and resources brief at the association for over a decade.

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The representative body for the 22 local authorities in Wales said that local government in Wales is facing ongoing financial and service pressures.

It is calling on the new Plaid Cymru Welsh Government for fair, multi-year funding, stronger support for prevention, sustainable social care, investment in housing and education, highways and a greater focus on rural communities and connectivity. Mr Hunt said: “It is an honour to take on this role at such an important time for local government in Wales

“Councils are ready to work in partnership with the new Welsh Government to deliver for our communities. We were pleased to welcome Siân Gwenllian the new Local Government Minister, to our annual general meeting recently, and we are grateful for that engagement, which reflects the importance of an ongoing partnership between local and national government.

“That partnership has to be built on stability and trust. We need fair, multi-year funding settlements that allow us to plan properly, invest in prevention, and focus on long-term outcomes.

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“Local government is at the heart of delivering the services people rely on every day, such as social care, housing, education and support for vulnerable families, and demand for those services continues to rise.

If we are serious about strengthening communities, then we must invest properly in those foundations.

“By working together across government, we can shift more focus towards prevention, strengthen the sustainability of social care, tackle the pressures in education, and ensure every community, including rural areas, has access to the services and infrastructure they need.”

“This is about turning shared priorities into real outcomes. Councils stand ready to play our full part in building stronger, fairer and more resilient communities across Wales.”

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Cabinet Minister for Local Government, Housing and Planning, Siân Gwenllian, said: “I warmly welcome Anthony Hunt as the new leader of the WLGA. Local government is at the heart of everything we want to achieve for people across Wales.

“Delivering the homes and public services that communities depend on requires a strong, equal partnership between Welsh Government and local authorities -and I look forward to working with Anthony to shape a fairer Wales.”

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BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (BESIY) Analyst/Investor Day – Slideshow

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (BESIY) Analyst/Investor Day – Slideshow

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Exclusive-Meta lobbies Congress for protection from child-harm lawsuits

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Exclusive-Meta lobbies Congress for protection from child-harm lawsuits


Exclusive-Meta lobbies Congress for protection from child-harm lawsuits

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Higher inflation drives jump in UK budget deficit in May

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Higher inflation drives jump in UK budget deficit in May


Higher inflation drives jump in UK budget deficit in May

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Weebit Nano Shares Jump 6.6% as ASX Semiconductor Stock Extends Run on ReRAM Momentum

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Weebit Nano Shares Jump 6.6% as ASX Semiconductor Stock Extends

Shares of Weebit Nano Ltd rose 6.61% on Friday, climbing 53 cents to close at $8.55, as the Sydney-based semiconductor memory technology company continued to attract strong investor interest on the back of expanding commercial partnerships, accelerating revenue growth, and a steady stream of capital raises supporting its push toward mass-market deployment of its core memory technology.

A Company Built Around Next-Generation Memory Chips

Weebit Nano Ltd is an Australia-based developer and licensor of advanced semiconductor memory technology. The company’s Resistive RAM, or ReRAM, addresses the growing need for higher performance and lower power non-volatile memory solutions in a range of new electronic products, such as Internet of Things devices, smartphones, robotics, autonomous vehicles, fifth-generation communications, and artificial intelligence.

Weebit Nano develops its non-volatile memory using a resistive random access memory technology based on fab-friendly materials, with operations in South Korea and the United States. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia. As of mid-June, the company carried a market capitalization of approximately $1.86 billion.

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A Landmark Deal With Texas Instruments

Among the most significant recent catalysts behind the stock’s rally has been a licensing agreement with one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers. Weebit Nano has attracted fresh attention after licensing its resistive random access memory technology to Texas Instruments, alongside issuing 2026 revenue guidance that targets minimum revenue of A$10 million.

That agreement came following a period of mixed share price performance, with the stock posting a 17.5% one-month return and a 9.81% three-month return ahead of the announcement, underscoring how individual commercial milestones have continued to drive outsized moves in the stock even amid broader volatility.

Chip Tape-Outs Mark a Key Commercial Milestone

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Beyond the Texas Instruments partnership, the company has also reported significant progress in moving its technology from the development stage toward actual commercial production. Weebit Nano shares jumped after the company revealed fresh commercial progress for its ReRAM chip technology, with two customers moving from development to actual chip tape-outs, signaling growing confidence that the memory technology is nearing real-world deployment. One customer, Overlord Labs, has already received a functional prototype, while a second customer has validated its initial silicon.

Both customers are set to run 12 to 18 months of testing before potential mass production, and Weebit Nano expects additional tape-outs later this year, which could further boost investor optimism.

Tape-out by product customers is an important milestone on the path to mass production and marks the achievement of one of the three 2026 targets set at Weebit’s 2025 Annual General Meeting.

Strong Investor Demand Through Repeated Capital Raises

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Weebit Nano has repeatedly turned to equity markets to fund its expansion, with each raise typically met by strong demand from both retail and institutional shareholders. Shares in the ASX technology company previously raced more than 20% higher in a single session after the company announced it had raised an additional $15 million and a new major shareholder emerged. The company said in a statement to the ASX that a share purchase plan priced at $4.05 per share had raised the new funds, bringing the total raised, including an institutional placement, to $102 million.

Weebit Nano Chief Executive Officer Coby Hanoch said at the time: “The Board and I are incredibly grateful for the strong support we continue to receive from our loyal retail shareholder base.” He noted that the company was at an exciting juncture in its history, with AEC-Q100 automotive-grade qualified ReRAM and multiple licensing agreements with leading foundries.

A more recent AUD 87 million capital raise is set to fund the company’s technology, AI, and commercial expansion over the next three years, as Weebit aims to widen its lead in ReRAM and in-memory compute, with new fabrication deals expected amid strong industry momentum.

The company has continued to expand its equity base incrementally through routine share issuances as well. Weebit Nano applied to the ASX for quotation of 666,509 new fully paid ordinary shares issued following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities on June 2 and June 4, 2026, marginally expanding the company’s free float and equity base.

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Accelerating Revenue Growth

While Weebit Nano remains a pre-profitability company, its underlying revenue trajectory has shown dramatic improvement in recent reporting periods. In fiscal year 2025, Weebit Nano’s revenue reached 4.41 million, an increase of 333.23% compared to the previous year’s 1.02 million. Losses totaled 38.38 million, a 6.94% improvement compared to 2024.

More recently, revenue surged to AUD 5.4 million over two years, with record receipts and a strong cash position. ReRAM adoption has been accelerating, particularly in analog, automotive, and AI applications, as the company prepares for what it describes as a major market inflection point.

A Dramatic Share Price Trajectory

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The stock’s broader trajectory over the past year illustrates just how significantly investor sentiment toward Weebit Nano has shifted. Weebit Nano shares have appreciated from lows of $1.43 over the past 12 months, a remarkable run that has transformed the company from a speculative small-cap technology stock into one of the more closely watched names within the ASX semiconductor sector.

Trailing total shareholder returns have reached as high as 372.86% over certain measurement periods, dramatically outperforming the broader S&P/ASX 200 benchmark over the same stretch.

A Speculative but Closely Watched Stock

Despite the company’s growing list of commercial partnerships and improving revenue figures, Weebit Nano remains, by traditional valuation metrics, a richly priced and speculative investment. The stock currently carries a price-to-sales ratio of 176.58 and a price-to-book ratio of 27.25, with no meaningful trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratio given the company’s ongoing losses.

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That valuation profile reflects a market that continues to price Weebit Nano based primarily on the long-term commercial potential of its ReRAM technology rather than on current financial performance — a dynamic common among early-stage semiconductor licensing companies whose primary value proposition lies in intellectual property and design partnerships rather than near-term product revenue.

What Comes Next

With multiple customer tape-outs already underway and additional milestones expected later this year, investors will be watching closely to see whether Weebit Nano can convert its growing list of licensing agreements — including its recent deal with Texas Instruments — into sustained revenue growth that more closely justifies its current market valuation. Given the company’s track record of significant single-day share price moves tied to individual commercial and capital-raising announcements, Weebit Nano appears likely to remain one of the more volatile, closely tracked names among ASX-listed semiconductor and technology stocks in the months ahead.

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Nutex Health: Good Value But Regulation Reliant

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Nutex Health: Good Value But Regulation Reliant

Nutex Health: Good Value But Regulation Reliant

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At Close of Business podcast June 19 2026

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At Close of Business podcast June 19 2026

Nadia Budihardjo speaks with Claire Tyrrell on the success of architecture practice Hames Sharley.

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Australian Beef Hit With 55% China Tariff After Hitting Import Quota in Record Time

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Australian beef

CANBERRA, Australia — Australian beef exports to China will face an additional 55% tariff starting this weekend, after the country’s shipments hit Beijing’s annual import quota in record time, a development that could significantly disrupt trade flows and push producers to seek out new markets for their red meat.

The tariff comes after Australian exports hit Beijing’s annual quota limit, a development that could impact trade flows and prompt producers to seek new markets for red meat. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the 205,000-tonne safeguard had been hit as of Thursday, June 18, with the 55% tariff set to take effect at midnight on June 20.

A Quota Hit Faster Than Expected

The speed at which Australian exporters reached the threshold caught much of the industry by surprise. On June 16, 2026, Australia crossed the 205,000-tonne limit set by China for Australian beef imports this year. The news came just two weeks after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that Australian shipments had already reached 90% of the annual quota as of June 1. The final 10% was consumed quickly, and the threshold was crossed sooner than some in the industry had expected.

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Beef exports have hit the Chinese quota in record time.

The Origins of the Quota System

The Chinese government in December imposed a quota of 205,000 tons on beef imports from Australia as part of a range of trade limits on major red meat-producing nations, including Brazil and Argentina, in a push to protect local farmers.

China introduced a three-year beef safeguard system in January 2026, setting import quotas for several major exporting countries, including Australia, Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand, Uruguay, and the United States. The system was introduced to protect China’s domestic beef industry, with Chinese farmers having faced pressure from rising import volumes that pushed down local prices and made it harder for domestic producers to compete.

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Beijing introduced the quota system following a safeguard investigation into beef imports. Under the arrangement, a set volume of beef from each country enters China at the standard low or zero tariff rate established under existing trade agreements. Once the quota is surpassed, an extra 55% duty applies automatically. For Australia, the 2026 quota stands at 205,000 tonnes, rising slightly in subsequent years before the policy concludes in 2029.

The Scale of the Cutback

The new quota represents a dramatic reduction compared to the volumes Australian exporters had been shipping to China just one year earlier. Australia exported more than 295,000 tonnes of beef to China in the first 11 months of 2025 alone, highlighting the scale of prior trade volumes. The quota for Australia of 205,000 tonnes for 2026 is significantly lower than the volume Australia shipped to China in 2025.

What Remains Exempt

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Not all Australian beef products will be subject to the new tariff. The safeguard restrictions do not apply to beef offal, which remains exempt from tariffs, as negotiated under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.

Industry sources also suggest a narrow subset of high-value products may continue moving despite the steep new duty. Industry sources say only a small number of product types might still make financial sense under a 55% tariff. High-end Wagyu beef destined for premium food service customers is one example. A handful of specific cuts, such as brisket and short plate, may still be shipped in very small volumes. For the most part, trade will stop.

Industry Reaction

Australian meat industry representatives described 2026 as an unusually difficult year for the sector, citing a combination of factors weighing on producers and exporters alike. “The combination of external trade barriers and rising domestic costs means 2026 is an exceptionally challenging year for the sector,” an industry representative said, according to reporting from Farm Online. “We will continue to work with our members and partners in the Australian government to advocate for improved trading conditions which facilitate a more stable and reliable trade in Australian beef to China.”

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Limited Expected Impact on Domestic Cattle Prices

Despite the significant trade disruption the tariff is expected to cause, analysts have suggested the effects on Australian domestic cattle prices are likely to be modest and short-lived, given strong demand from other export markets. Episode 3 meat industry analyst Matt Dalgleish said the tariff would likely lead to a dip in flows to China until mid-November but should have little impact on local cattle prices. “The broader global picture is one of tight supplies and there are several other destinations that will have demand remaining firm,” he said. “We shouldn’t see too much price weakness locally for cattle.”

A Shifting Competitive Landscape

The tariff’s introduction is also expected to reshape competitive dynamics among beef exporters within the Chinese market, potentially benefiting rival suppliers from other countries whose own quotas have not yet been triggered. While Australian exports will face the significant 55% tariff for the remainder of 2026, this could make expensive U.S. product more price competitive than “Aussie Beef” in Chinese retailers, though the impact on domestic cattle prices is not expected to be notable or to last for long. Beef from New Zealand and Argentina will also be landing in China on a more price competitive footing for the next six months.

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Potential Financial Toll for Australian Producers

The broader financial stakes for Australia’s red meat sector are considerable, with some industry estimates pointing to losses well into the billions of dollars if trade volumes to China decline as sharply as expected. Industry groups warn of potential losses exceeding A$1 billion annually if exports to China fall by approximately one-third.

Producers Already Adapting

In anticipation of the quota being reached, Australian producers and exporters had already begun adjusting their strategies in recent weeks. Producers are accelerating shipments, exploring alternative markets in Asia and the Middle East, and investing in value-added products and diversification.

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An Equal-Opportunity Safeguard

Australian exporters can take some measure of comfort in the fact that the new tariff regime is not targeted specifically at Australia, but rather applies uniformly across all of China’s major beef trading partners. The safeguard applies equally to Brazil, the United States, Argentina, New Zealand and Uruguay under similar quota arrangements.

What Comes Next

With Australia’s quota now officially exhausted for the remainder of 2026 and the 55% tariff set to take effect at midnight on June 20, the coming months will test how much of the country’s beef trade with China can be sustained through premium product categories and tariff-exempt offal exports. Industry attention will also turn to how quickly producers can pivot toward alternative markets in Asia and the Middle East to offset the expected decline in shipments to what has long been one of Australia’s most important beef export destinations, with the quota system set to remain in place, gradually rising, through 2029.

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