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Will BTC Keep Plunging Below $65K? Expert Predictions for February 2026 Recovery
Bitcoin has tumbled to its lowest levels since last fall, briefly dipping below $61,000 this week before rebounding slightly to around $64,800 amid a brutal sell-off that has wiped out nearly 50% of its value from October highs. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap — now hovering at $1.29 trillion — faces mounting questions: Is this the bottom, or will BTC keep going down as investor panic deepens?
The dramatic plunge, down 32% over the past 12 months and 44% from its $126,296 peak, has triggered widespread deleveraging, ETF outflows and skepticism about crypto’s post-election rally. Yet historical patterns, improving macro signals and technical rebounds suggest the bleeding may soon stop — though analysts warn of more pain before any sustained recovery.
Bitcoin’s brutal week: From $92K dreams to $60K reality
Bitcoin shed nearly 20% in the past seven days alone, smashing through key support at $70,000 and testing November 2024 lows around $60,001. Thursday’s session saw BTC briefly crater below $61,000 — its steepest single-day drop in months — fueled by $3.48 billion in spot ETF outflows since November and liquidations hitting overcrowded long positions.
Major platforms like Bitstamp clocked lows of $70,002 early Thursday, while Coinbase watched BTC flirt with $60K amid risk-off sentiment spilling from stocks. Ether and XRP suffered worse, amplifying the crypto bloodbath as traditional investors soured on digital assets.
Deutsche Bank’s Marion Laboure pinned the rout on fading hype: “Traditional investors are losing interest… Bitcoin isn’t trading on narratives anymore; it’s pure liquidity dynamics.” FG Nexus’s Aja Vinovic added that post-ETF euphoria has given way to balance-sheet pressures, with put options now outpacing calls.
Why Bitcoin is crashing now: ETF flows, macro headwinds
Spot Bitcoin ETFs — once bullish darlings — turned net negative, hemorrhaging $278 million in January alone after $4.57 billion in late-2025 outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus, signaling institutional profit-taking after BTC’s 2025 surge.
Macro jitters amplified the slide. Fed hawkishness crushed rate-cut bets, strengthening the dollar and squeezing risk assets. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq hit 0.85, dragging BTC down as tech stocks wobbled. On-chain data shows new buyer activity stalled since October, with sentiment nearing fear extremes — historically bullish contrarian signals.
Technicals scream oversold: Wedge pattern eyes rebound
Charts paint a mixed but intriguing picture. Bitcoin trades inside an ascending broadening wedge, bouncing from the lower boundary near $60K — a classic reversal setup. Bulls must reclaim $89,241 and $90,000 for bullish confirmation; failure risks $55K tests.
The 50-day moving average sits at $87,974, with the 200-day at $103,031 — both far above spot price, underscoring the correction’s depth. Yet RSI readings below 30 signal extreme oversold conditions, while February’s historical 14.3% average gains favor upside.
Changelly forecasts BTC climbing to $77,862 by month-end (20% from here), with short-term targets at $71,840 Friday and $77K late February. BeInCrypto eyes $98K on wedge breakout, followed by $95K consolidation.
Historical precedent: 30% drops are BTC’s normal
Pullbacks of 30%+ are routine in Bitcoin cycles. Post-2021 and 2017 peaks, BTC endured multiple 30-50% corrections before resuming uptrends. The current 44% retracement mirrors March 2025’s 32.7% dip and January’s 31.7% slide — “normal volatility,” per CoinDesk’s Jacob Joseph.
Santiment data confirms: Extreme fear precedes bounces, with current caution levels priming gradual advances. ETF outflow slowdown — from $3.48B (Nov) to $278M (Jan) — hints at stabilization.
Bull case: ETF rebound, halving tailwinds, macro pivot
Optimists see catalysts ahead. Spot ETF flows could flip positive in February, providing “structural support.” The 2024 halving’s supply shock lingers, with 3.125 BTC block rewards tightening issuance amid rising demand.
Macro tailwinds beckon: Potential Fed cuts, election-cycle liquidity and Trump’s pro-crypto stance (Bitcoin reserve talk) could ignite FOMO. On-chain metrics show long-term holders accumulating, HODL waves strengthening.
Price targets cluster at $90K (near-term resistance), $101K (14% historical February gain) and $126K year-high retest.
Bear case: $55K floor, recession risks loom
Pessimists warn of deeper pain. Failure at $70K invites $55K — 2024 lows — with $44K psychological support. Persistent ETF selling, regulatory clouds (SEC vs. Ripple redux?) and equity contagion threaten further slides.
Deutsche Bank’s Laboure flags “overall negativity” as traditional capital flees. If Nasdaq cracks, BTC’s 0.85 correlation amplifies downside.
Expert predictions: Where BTC heads next
| Analyst/Firm | Short-Term (Feb) | Year-End 2026 | Key Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| BeInCrypto | $98K breakout | $120K+ | ETF inflows |
| Changelly | $77.8K | $95K avg | Technical rebound |
| CoinDesk | Stabilize $80K | Cycle peak | Halving effects |
| Deutsche Bank | $60K risk | Bearish | Macro caution |
February averages 14.3% gains historically; current $64.8K base projects $74K end-month.
What Bitcoin investors should do now
- HODL long-term: Corrections precede bull runs; 2021’s 50% drop yielded 3x gains.
- Dollar-cost average: Buy dips below $65K; avoid FOMO at $90K.
- Watch ETF flows: Inflow reversal signals bottom.
- Monitor Fed: Rate cuts ignite risk-on.
- Risk management: Never invest more than 5-10% portfolio.
Bitcoin’s at a crossroads: capitulation or coil for explosion? History favors the latter, but patience rules. As Vinovic notes, “The bull run narrative evolves — liquidity now drives price.” Tune into macro prints, ETF data and $70K hold for clues. The king of crypto endures — battered, but unbowed.