The Duke Blue Devils remain firmly in the national championship conversation for the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament, but a narrow escape in their opening-round matchup has tempered some of the preseason hype surrounding Jon Scheyer’s squad.

As of March 22, 2026, Duke sits as the third choice to cut down the nets in Indianapolis, with odds hovering around +500 across leading sportsbooks — translating to an implied probability of approximately 16.7%. That marks a notable drop from their pre-tournament status as the outright favorite at +300 to +330, when they earned the No. 1 overall seed following a dominant ACC regular-season and tournament run.

Arizona now leads the pack at +360, followed closely by Michigan at +380, according to aggregated lines from sites including SI.com betting reports and FanDuel. Defending champion Florida trails at +700, rounding out a quartet of No. 1 seeds that dominate the futures board.

The shift stemmed directly from Duke’s first-round performance against No. 16 seed Siena. Installed as a massive 27.5-point favorite, the Blue Devils trailed by 11 at halftime before rallying for a 71-65 victory — a six-point win that felt far from convincing. Oddsmakers responded swiftly, dinging Duke’s title odds and elevating Arizona and Michigan, both of whom posted more decisive opening-round wins.

Despite the stumble, Duke’s path remains favorable. As the East Region’s top seed, they hold -120 odds to reach the Final Four, per FOX Sports, and face No. 9 seed TCU in the second round as an 11.5-point favorite. Projections from ESPN’s BPI give the Blue Devils a 91% chance to advance past the Horned Frogs, underscoring their superior talent and depth even on an off night.

Central to Duke’s campaign is forward **Cameron Boozer**, a key piece of the program’s reloaded roster following the departure of last year’s stars. With Cooper Flagg — the 2024-25 National Player of the Year and No. 1 NBA draft pick — now in the pros after a standout freshman season, Scheyer turned to another elite recruiting class headlined by the Boozer twins (Cameron and Cayden), Nikolas Khamenia, Dame Sarr and others.

The Blue Devils posted a 32-2 record entering the tournament, including a 17-1 mark in ACC play, and captured the conference tournament title to secure the top overall seed. Their blend of size, athleticism and defensive prowess has made them a perennial threat, though injuries and inconsistent efforts have surfaced at times.

Scheyer, in his third full season as head coach, has emphasized building around freshmen once again, a strategy that paid dividends in reaching the Final Four the previous year behind Flagg. This season’s group has shown flashes of similar potential, but the close call against Siena highlighted vulnerabilities — particularly in half-court execution and closing out lesser opponents.

Analysts point to Duke’s talent edge as the primary reason they remain in the mix. The Blue Devils boast one of the deepest rotations in the field, with versatile wings and interior presence that can matchup against any contender. Their Final Four odds reflect confidence in navigating the region, where fellow No. 1 seeds like UConn lurk but at much longer prices (+650 to reach Indianapolis).

Michigan and Arizona, the current co-favorites in some markets, have benefited from stronger opening-round showings and consistent dominance throughout the season. Michigan, at 32-3, and Arizona, at 33-2, have fewer question marks heading into the weekend, per Vegas Insider updates.

Still, history favors top seeds, and Duke’s resume — including a near-undefeated conference slate and ACC title — positions them well for a deep run. A return to form against TCU could quickly restore their status atop the board.

For bettors and fans alike, the Blue Devils’ title odds represent value if they handle business in the coming days. At +500, a $100 wager would return $500 profit on a championship win, down from the more favorable pre-tournament prices but still reflecting significant belief in Scheyer’s program.

As the tournament intensifies, Duke’s championship aspirations hinge on recapturing the dominance that made them the preseason pick. With the Sweet 16 on the horizon and a potential showdown with high-powered offenses ahead, the Blue Devils have every tool needed to chase banner No. 6 — but execution, starting Saturday, will determine if that chance climbs back toward the top.