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$1 Billion Floods Back Into Crypto Funds, Snapping Five-Week $4B Bleed

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$1 Billion Floods Back Into Crypto Funds, Snapping Five-Week $4B Bleed


CoinShares reported $1 billion weekly turnaround, driven by Bitcoin buying and renewed investor appetite across major markets.

Investment products tied to digital assets recorded $1 billion in net inflows last week, reversing a five-week run of $4 billion in outflows. CoinShares said that no single macro event explains the change. Instead, previous price softness, technical breakdowns, and renewed buying activity among major Bitcoin holders appear to have supported the rebound.

Market participants have recently focused more on identifying buying opportunities than on scaling back their exposure.

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Global Crypto Funds Recover

According to the latest edition of CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, weekly fund flows were dominated by Bitcoin, which brought in $881 million. At the same time, short Bitcoin products drew $3.7 million. Ethereum attracted $117 million, its strongest weekly performance since mid-January, although both assets remain in net outflows for the year.

Solana, on the other hand, posted $53.8 million for the week and $156 million year-to-date. Chainlink gained $3.4 million over the past week, while XRP and Sui added $1.9 million and $0.4 million, respectively. Multi-asset products were the only segment to see withdrawals, with $6 million exiting.

Regionally, sentiment was largely consistent. The United States led with $957 million in new investment. Canada, Germany, and Switzerland added $34.1 million, $31.7 million, and $28.4 million, respectively. Hong Kong recorded $6.8 million, while Brazil brought in $3.2 million.

Geopolitical Shock

Since the ETF flows last week, there has been a sharp deterioration in geopolitical conditions. On Monday, crypto markets remain largely range-bound amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran. An initial US strike on Iran over the weekend pushed Bitcoin toward about $63,000 and Ethereum below $2,000 before prices pulled back into established trading ranges.

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Approximately $300 million of long positions were liquidated when the news broke, a significant but contained amount, which, according to QCP Capital, suggests positioning was already reduced in the days before the event. The firm noted that this could also mean that investors are treating Bitcoin less as a “weekend macro hedge” and considering alternatives such as tokenized gold, which trades 24/7 and has seen increased risk-off interest.

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Options markets showed a spike in very short-term volatility but otherwise reacted moderately, which indicates traders may have been relatively well positioned for possible volatility given warning signs during the prior week. QCP pointed to a similar event last June, when BTC dipped on geopolitical news but recovered and later rallied. Options flow data also revealed buyers of call contracts with expiration later in March, which is consistent with some participants gearing up for a rebound.

“Despite price action looking fairly constructive, we remain cautious as tensions and uncertainty continue to build. The conflict is still in its early stages, and it’s premature to conclude whether it will remain contained or evolve into a broader regional confrontation involving other Gulf states.”

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How Is the PMI Index Signaling the Start of Altcoin Season?

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Altcoin Dominance, PMI, and MACD-H Indicator. Source: Matthew Hyland

The decline in altcoin market capitalization has started to slow in the first week of March despite numerous negative geopolitical developments. In addition, the newly released PMI index is reviving hopes that altcoins may recover soon.

However, any recovery could face significant challenges as the proportion of altcoins trading near their all-time lows continues to rise.

Why Could the PMI Report Influence Capital Flows into the Altcoin Market?

A positive macroeconomic signal has just emerged, bringing renewed optimism. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50 threshold for two consecutive months.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI reflects survey results from purchasing managers about their business conditions. It helps assess whether the US manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting.

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Specifically, the February 2026 PMI reached 52.4. Although it came in slightly lower than January’s 52.6, it still exceeded the forecast of 51.8.

Historical data shows that when the ISM PMI rises above 50—indicating economic expansion—it often coincides with strong rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Analyst Ash Crypto explained that when PMI exceeds 50, the US economy enters an expansion phase. Corporate profits increase. Household income improves.

Consumer spending accelerates. Investor risk appetite strengthens.

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“If ISM stays above 50 for a few more months, the crypto winter could be over soon,” Ash Crypto stated.

Analysts expect that the ISM Manufacturing PMI remaining above 50 for two consecutive months signals the beginning of a new US business cycle. This environment creates favorable conditions for capital to flow into high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Analyst Matthew Hyland combined PMI data with historical models and indicated that altcoin dominance has just confirmed a breakout signal.

Altcoin Dominance, PMI, and MACD-H Indicator. Source: Matthew Hyland
Altcoin Dominance, PMI, and MACD-H Indicator. Source: Matthew Hyland

The rising PMI, together with the recovery of the monthly MACD-H indicator and the breakout from a falling wedge pattern in altcoin dominance, suggests a potential altcoin season scenario in 2026.

38% of Altcoins Are Trading Near All-Time Lows

A recent report by CryptoQuant analysts reflects a still-bleak outlook for altcoins.

Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, stated that approximately 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows. This marks the lowest level in the current cycle and appears even worse than the period immediately following the collapse of FTX.

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“This chart perfectly illustrates the current situation for altcoins. Investors remain cautious and continue to lose interest in altcoins,” Darkfost explained.

Percentage Altcoins near ALT. Source: CryptoQuant.
Percentage Altcoins near ALT. Source: CryptoQuant.

However, he added that severely deteriorating conditions can also create an environment where opportunities begin to emerge.

A recent report by BeInCrypto highlighted additional signals in March that suggest altcoins could recover. However, the excessive number of altcoins combined with tight liquidity conditions may limit the extent of any rebound.

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High Risk Zone? Analysts Split as Bitcoin (BTC) Ignores Geopolitical Chaos

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Bitcoin's Recovery Isn't Here Yet


Analysts argue that geopolitical shocks have failed to invalidate the existing bullish short-term and bearish mid-term outlooks.

Bitcoin’s reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend was limited, even as traditional markets reacted more sharply. BTC slipped to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a volatile range between roughly $63,000 and $68,000, as markets responded to rising US-Iran tensions and reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.

Despite the intense, volatile backdrop, market commentators say that the conflict has not changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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High Risk Zone

In a post on X, Mr. Wall Street stated that “nothing changed with the new war.” He said that he does not believe the cycle bottom is in at $60,000. According to him, the cycle bottom will form later this year, around $45,000, but only after Bitcoin first rallies to the $80,000-$85,000 range.

The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term, bearish in the mid-term. This indicates that while geopolitical shocks may create volatility, he does not believe they invalidate the expectation of a near-term pump followed by a deeper corrective phase. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Doctor Profit, also maintained that the war does not alter his broader bearish positioning.

He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in an absolute high risk zone” and that the market has not bottomed yet.

“The war changes nothing in my bearish outlook for Crypto and Stocks.”

He also added that he remains fully bearish and that his “big short” has remained open since September. Both analysts, despite differing on short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical escalation has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market theses.

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US-Iran Conflict Already Priced In?

Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already been pricing in the US-Iran conflict throughout the previous week. He went on to explain that markets cannot fall much further because the event was largely anticipated, but pointed to uncertainty around the length of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, stock futures, which Bitcoin tends to follow, would probably open negatively, and could potentially recover as soon as de-escalation talks emerge.

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They said a prolonged conflict is unlikely, citing concerns that extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices higher and spike US CPI inflation, something they do not expect to occur. The strategy is to wait for Monday’s stock market reaction. As such, if there is a sharp sell-off, they would long Bitcoin around $61,000-$60,000 ahead of de-escalation news. On the other hand, if there is only a slight decline, sideways movement, or a pump, they would delay entering a long position until later in the week.

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Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run

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Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run

Crypto are under pressure as war around Iran intensifies and traders begin pricing in the unthinkable: disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

If that chokepoint closes, oil spikes. And if oil spikes, inflation follows. That puts the Federal Reserve in a corner, forcing rates to stay higher for longer.

Crypto is not immune. While there has been some speculative buying on regional capital flight headlines, the broader macro picture is heavy. Bitcoin is moving more in sync with traditional risk assets, not decoupling from them.

Instead of acting like digital gold, the market is behaving as if liquidity is the real safe haven. In a true energy shock scenario, the first reaction is not rotation into crypto. It is de-risking across the board.

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Key Takeaways:
  • Bitcoin volatility has spiked as traders hedge against a potential Strait of Hormuz closure that could disrupt one-fifth of global oil flows.
  • Surging Oil Price levels above $90/barrel would likely stick inflation higher, potentially taking a Q2 Fed rate cut off the table.
  • While Capital Flight into USDT offers localized support, global risk-off flows are dominating market structure and capping upside momentum.

Bitcoin Crypto Volatility Spikes as Iran War Jitters Trigger $128M Liquidations

The first crypto reaction to the Iran war was chaos, not clarity. CoinGlass data shows more than $128 million in liquidations in just 4 hours after reports of the IRGC’s “Operation True Promise 4.” Nearly 80% were longs. Leverage traders were leaning the wrong way and got wiped fast.

Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin initially dropped toward $63,000 on the headlines, then bounced as more details came out. But the rebound feels mechanical, not confident. Open Interest has cooled sharply, which tells you desks are cutting risk, not aggressively buying dips.

This is classic panic behavior. Sell first. Reassess later.

Equities are showing the same pattern. The S&P 500 has seen outflows, and Bitcoin’s correlation with tech remains tight during stress events. Whatever the digital gold narrative says, in moments like this BTC trades like a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven.

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Oil Price Surge Threatens to Derail Fed Pivot Plans

The real risk to crypto might not be the headlines; it could be oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, up to 21 million barrels per day could be affected. That is around 20% of the global supply. Even partial disruptions historically trigger instant price spikes.

If crude holds above $100, inflation comes back fast. That traps the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts get delayed. Liquidity stays tight. And crypto suffers in a higher-for-longer environment.

Source: BTCUSD / TradingView

Some analysts are floating extreme downside scenarios again. While most institutional desks still see $58,000 to $60,000 as Bitcoin’s key support zone, that floor depends heavily on the Fed not turning more hawkish.

There is a counter-force: capital flight. Stablecoin demand in parts of the Middle East has jumped as local currencies wobble. Bitcoin and USDT become escape valves. But retail flows from crisis regions rarely offset large institutional outflows driven by macro tightening.

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Altcoins are already showing the strain. Without fresh liquidity, Ethereum and the broader sector struggle to sustain rallies. If yields on the U.S. 10-year push back toward 5% on energy-driven inflation, risk assets likely stay capped.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post Crypto, Iran War, and Oil Price: Geopolitical Shock Could Delay the Crypto Bull Run appeared first on Cryptonews.

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BTC Price Bottom is Forming as Four-Year Halving Cycle Ends Says VanEck CEO

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BTC Price Bottom is Forming as Four-Year Halving Cycle Ends Says VanEck CEO

​The price of Bitcoin is close to its bottom, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, pointing to the winding down of the four-year cycle.

Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually start picking up this year, arguing that the four-year halving cycle has been the primary driver of price over the past few months, as opposed to anything related to BTC’s fundamentals.

“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by […] limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” he said, adding:

“There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

The four-year crypto cycle has been a hot topic of debate overt he last year, with crypto analysts split over whether the chart pattern is still applicable today given the level of institutional adoption and crypto market maturity.

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Arguments against the cycle include macro demand from exchange-traded funds, the weakening USD, and positive regulatory developments.

Jan van Eck’s comments come as the price of BTC is up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $68,400 at the time of writing, and 7.6% over the past seven days, according to data from CoinGecko.

Related: Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts

The crypto pump has coincided with growing geopolitical tensions, after the United States and Israel initiated air strikes on Iran, which has since prompted Iran to launch strikes in response against Israel.

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Van Eck speculated that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be partly sparked by the conflict, with crypto payment rails serving as a key tool to move funds outside of banks in times of economic uncertainty.  

“When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it’s a very, very crypto-friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything,” he said, adding:  

“So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”

Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets